Will FC Augsburg win on 2026-11-07?

16 of 22 top Polymarket traders hold No (73%) · No at 100¢ · $12K held · ended Nov 7

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 73%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$12.3K

Combined PnL

$211.44

Smart Money Entry

77.5¢ → 100¢

+29% since entry · 16 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

16 of 22 top traders (73%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No16 traders

Total Value$10.0K

Total Shares10,278

Combined PnL+$1.7K

Yes6 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares12,010

Combined PnL$-1.4K

No — 73%Yes — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-12 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 72.3¢	$3.6K	$4.7K	+$1.1K	51% 27227-25781 (53008)
0X 0x5E39013a1d7C4B502ad2Ea073d7e8A0469cA352C-1765309578276	Noavg 85¢	$2.5K	$3.0K	+$427.5	67% 2812-1387 (4199)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 14¢	$629.65	$1.0K	+$382.3	50% 28937-28754 (57691)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Yesavg 14¢	$588.2	$945.66	+$357.45	55% 3804-3137 (6941)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 14¢	$319.98	$697.1	+$377.12
└ No leg	Noavg 75¢	$268.22	$248.55	-$19.67
RN1CTR	Yesavg 27.9¢	$1.6K	$282.1	$-1.3K	53% 62321-54560 (116881)
38 38791873984189	Noavg 73¢	$430.75	$274.13	+$55.87	48% 62396-67251 (129647)
RI RichieRicher	Noavg 74.2¢	$215.86	$248.59	+$32.73	54% 816-691 (1507)
PA Pan9X	Noavg 73.7¢	$310.26	$248.58	+$50.58	54% 10453-8773 (19226)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Noavg 76.1¢	$255.98	$233.67	-$22.31	52% 14650-13314 (27964)
AV averagejoetraders	Noavg 73.7¢	$152	$204.4	+$52.4	57% 676-519 (1195)
OX oxe78sh4w98	Noavg 74¢	$149.94	$201.1	+$51.16	53% 624-550 (1174)
NM NM-P	Noavg 84.6¢	$168.38	$197.64	+$29.27	64% 10182-5720 (15902)
LI Limousin	Noavg 98.6¢	$258.59	$157.08	-$101.5	50% 1850-1863 (3713)
VE Venusian	Noavg 84.7¢	$167.92	$153.03	-$36.2	49% 1843-1935 (3778)
PT PT-S7	Noavg 76.1¢	$147.15	$149.09	+$1.94	49% 3280-3447 (6727)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 83¢	$137.67	$141.69	+$4.11	58% 47503-34297 (81800)
MA MadridTime<$100	Noavg 84.7¢	$69.38	$68.83	-$0.55	48% 1775-1911 (3686)
GC GC-P<$100	Noavg 85¢	$24.08	$28.14	+$4.05	64% 10179-5769 (15948)
oieshfn345CTR	Yesavg 24.2¢	$370.62	$14.52	-$356.1	57% 2111-1562 (3673)
PA pauleta23<$100	Noavg 74¢	$10	$12.77	+$2.77	66% 24445-12494 (36939)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 14¢	$73	$3.65	-$69.35	49% 14983-15895 (30878)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Yesavg 21.2¢	$47.61	$1.91	-$45.71	49% 1800-1900 (3700)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Yesavg 23.5¢	$32.52	$1.04	-$31.48	46% 1791-2100 (3891)

Flaznorp

Invested

$3,637.7

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

51%

27227-25781 (53008)

0x5E39013a1d7C4B502ad2Ea073d7e8A0469cA352C-1765309578276

Invested

$2,550

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$427.5

Record

67%

2812-1387 (4199)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$629.65

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$382.3

Record

50%

28937-28754 (57691)

Anon455ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$588.2

Value

$945.66

PnL

+$357.45

Record

55%

3804-3137 (6941)

Both legs:

Yes$319.9814¢+$377.12

No$268.2275¢-$19.67

RN1CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,610.03

Value

$282.1

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

53%

62321-54560 (116881)

38791873984189

Invested

$430.75

Value

$274.13

PnL

+$55.87

Record

48%

62396-67251 (129647)

RichieRicher

Invested

$215.86

Value

$248.59

PnL

+$32.73

Record

54%

816-691 (1507)

Pan9X

Invested

$310.26

Value

$248.58

PnL

+$50.58

Record

54%

10453-8773 (19226)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Invested

$255.98

Value

$233.67

PnL

-$22.31

Record

52%

14650-13314 (27964)

averagejoetraders

Invested

$152

Value

$204.4

PnL

+$52.4

Record

57%

676-519 (1195)

oxe78sh4w98

Invested

$149.94

Value

$201.1

PnL

+$51.16

Record

53%

624-550 (1174)

NM-P

Invested

$168.38

Value

$197.64

PnL

+$29.27

Record

64%

10182-5720 (15902)

Limousin

Invested

$258.59

Value

$157.08

PnL

-$101.5

Record

50%

1850-1863 (3713)

Venusian

Invested

$167.92

Value

$153.03

PnL

-$36.2

Record

49%

1843-1935 (3778)

PT-S7

Invested

$147.15

Value

$149.09

PnL

+$1.94

Record

49%

3280-3447 (6727)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$137.67

Value

$141.69

PnL

+$4.11

Record

58%

47503-34297 (81800)

MadridTime<$100

Invested

$69.38

Value

$68.83

PnL

-$0.55

Record

48%

1775-1911 (3686)

GC-P<$100

Invested

$24.08

Value

$28.14

PnL

+$4.05

Record

64%

10179-5769 (15948)

oieshfn345CTR

Yes

Invested

$370.62

Value

$14.52

PnL

-$356.1

Record

57%

2111-1562 (3673)

pauleta23<$100

Invested

$10

Value

$12.77

PnL

+$2.77

Record

66%

24445-12494 (36939)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$73

Value

$3.65

PnL

-$69.35

Record

49%

14983-15895 (30878)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$47.61

Value

$1.91

PnL

-$45.71

Record

49%

1800-1900 (3700)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$32.52

Value

$1.04

PnL

-$31.48

Record

46%

1791-2100 (3891)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

16 of 22 top traders (73%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-12 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.