Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Illinois Fighting Illini, while the market favors Texas Tech Red Raiders (95%). 5 of 21 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders
5 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold Illinois Fighting Illini (24%) · Illinois Fighting Illini at 5.5¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Illinois Fighting Illini
21
Illinois Fighting Illini 24%
$8.4K
-$226.57
53.1¢ → 5.5¢
-90% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidIllinois Fighting Illini at 6%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 21 top traders (24%)Underdog side (market favors Texas Tech Red Raiders 95%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
-24 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Mature
22h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
26% of non-arb traders are on Illinois Fighting Illini. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
IM imjustkenisghey | Texas Tech Red Raidersavg 42¢ | $926.52 | $1.6K | +$705.92 | — 3-6 (9) |
JA JAMJAMJAM4CTR | Illinois Fighting Illiniavg 58¢ | $3.0K | $1.3K | $-1.7K | 1% 4-493 (497) |
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872 | Texas Tech Red Raidersavg 57.8¢ | $736.98 | $1.2K | +$464.08 | 56% 488-383 (871) |
38 38791873984189 | Texas Tech Red Raidersavg 44.3¢ | $730.75 | $709.12 | +$146.95 | 48% 949-1019 (1968) |
 RN1 | Texas Tech Red Raidersavg 68.2¢ | $491.72 | $548.85 | +$57.13 | 58% 3802-2784 (6586) |
TA takeormake | Texas Tech Red Raidersavg 62.8¢ | $479.6 | $409.24 | -$63.83 | 59% 3119-2207 (5326) |
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080 | Texas Tech Red Raidersavg 42.3¢ | $176 | $392.97 | +$216.97 | 10% 88-785 (873) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Texas Tech Red Raidersavg 46¢ | $237.62 | $382.26 | +$144.64 | 57% 3074-2312 (5386) |
SN SnakeBall | Texas Tech Red Raidersavg 43.3¢ | $229.8 | $359.18 | +$129.38 | 48% 190-206 (396) |
HI hi774cCTR | Illinois Fighting Illiniavg 57¢ | $968.48 | $356.45 | -$612.03 | 8% 37-422 (459) |
 0xheavy888 | Texas Tech Red Raidersavg 43.7¢ | $200.61 | $339.51 | +$138.9 | 55% 120-97 (217) |
CI cigarettes | Texas Tech Red Raidersavg 45¢ | $135 | $222 | +$87 | 53% 5512-4919 (10431) |
MA MadridTime | Texas Tech Red Raidersavg 49¢ | $66.74 | $100.79 | +$34.05 | 28% 279-704 (983) |
BA bands1<$100 | Texas Tech Red Raidersavg 41¢ | $42.89 | $77.42 | +$34.52 | 50% 331-328 (659) |
 VeryLucky888 | Texas Tech Red Raidersavg 42¢ | $162.23 | $74.2 | +$34.4 | 51% 300-292 (592) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Texas Tech Red Raidersavg 46.2¢ | $61.17 | $69.88 | +$25.76 | 49% 444-470 (914) |
OJ ojg<$100 | Texas Tech Red Raidersavg 86.9¢ | $72.04 | $65.38 | -$6.66 | 41% 106-155 (261) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Texas Tech Red Raidersavg 53.8¢ | $44.47 | $62.63 | +$18.16 | 50% 1504-1508 (3012) |
VE VenusianCTR | Illinois Fighting Illiniavg 15.6¢ | $112.74 | $39.83 | -$72.9 | 28% 279-730 (1009) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100 | Illinois Fighting Illiniavg 30.3¢ | $65.23 | $11.83 | -$53.4 | 54% 1657-1434 (3091) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Illinois Fighting Illiniavg 57¢ | $4.95 | $4.7 | -$0.25 | 26% 181-519 (700) |
Invested
$926.52
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$705.92
Record
—
3-6 (9)
Invested
$3,000.34
Value
$1.3K
PnL
$-1.7K
Record
1%
4-493 (497)
Invested
$736.98
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$464.08
Record
56%
488-383 (871)
Invested
$730.75
Value
$709.12
PnL
+$146.95
Record
48%
949-1019 (1968)
RN1Invested
$491.72
Value
$548.85
PnL
+$57.13
Record
58%
3802-2784 (6586)
Invested
$479.6
Value
$409.24
PnL
-$63.83
Record
59%
3119-2207 (5326)
Invested
$176
Value
$392.97
PnL
+$216.97
Record
10%
88-785 (873)
Invested
$237.62
Value
$382.26
PnL
+$144.64
Record
57%
3074-2312 (5386)
Invested
$229.8
Value
$359.18
PnL
+$129.38
Record
48%
190-206 (396)
Invested
$968.48
Value
$356.45
PnL
-$612.03
Record
8%
37-422 (459)
0xheavy888Invested
$200.61
Value
$339.51
PnL
+$138.9
Record
55%
120-97 (217)
Invested
$135
Value
$222
PnL
+$87
Record
53%
5512-4919 (10431)
Invested
$66.74
Value
$100.79
PnL
+$34.05
Record
28%
279-704 (983)
Invested
$42.89
Value
$77.42
PnL
+$34.52
Record
50%
331-328 (659)
VeryLucky888Invested
$162.23
Value
$74.2
PnL
+$34.4
Record
51%
300-292 (592)
Invested
$61.17
Value
$69.88
PnL
+$25.76
Record
49%
444-470 (914)
Invested
$72.04
Value
$65.38
PnL
-$6.66
Record
41%
106-155 (261)
Invested
$44.47
Value
$62.63
PnL
+$18.16
Record
50%
1504-1508 (3012)
Invested
$112.74
Value
$39.83
PnL
-$72.9
Record
28%
279-730 (1009)
Invested
$65.23
Value
$11.83
PnL
-$53.4
Record
54%
1657-1434 (3091)
Invested
$4.95
Value
$4.7
PnL
-$0.25
Record
26%
181-519 (700)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
5.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
imjustkenisghey
Texas Tech Red Raiders — $1.6K
JAMJAMJAM4
CTRIllinois Fighting Illini — $1.3K
0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872
Texas Tech Red Raiders — $1.2K
38791873984189
Texas Tech Red Raiders — $709.12
RN1
Texas Tech Red Raiders — $548.85
takeormake
Texas Tech Red Raiders — $409.24
0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080
Texas Tech Red Raiders — $392.97
HomeRunHazard
Texas Tech Red Raiders — $382.26
SnakeBall
Texas Tech Red Raiders — $359.18
hi774c
CTRIllinois Fighting Illini — $356.45