Memphis Tigers vs. Vanderbilt Commodores

13 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold Vanderbilt Commodores (62%) · Vanderbilt Commodores at 96¢ · $12K held · ended Nov 11

Memphis Tigers5¢Vanderbilt Commodores95¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Vanderbilt Commodores

Consensus Traders

Vanderbilt Commodores 62%

Total Value

$11.8K

Combined PnL

-$117.8

Smart Money Entry

89.4¢ → 95.5¢

+7% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

AvoidVanderbilt Commodores at 96%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Vanderbilt Commodores

13 of 21 top traders (62%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Memphis Tigers5%

Vanderbilt Commodores96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Vanderbilt Commodores13 traders

Total Value$11.0K

Total Shares11,863

Combined PnL-$125.65

Memphis Tigers8 traders

Total Value$847.13

Total Shares6,879

Combined PnL+$7.85

Vanderbilt Commodores — 62%Memphis Tigers — 38%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

71% of non-arb traders are on Vanderbilt Commodores. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMemphis Tigers 56% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedVanderbilt Commodores 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Vanderbilt Commodores 69% · 16

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Vanderbilt Commodoresavg 90¢	$3.4K	$3.4K	-$37.27	57% 3074-2312 (5386)
TA takeormake	Vanderbilt Commodoresavg 93.4¢	$2.2K	$2.0K	-$209.29	59% 3119-2207 (5326)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Vanderbilt Commodoresavg 86.3¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$15.33	56% 488-383 (871)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Vanderbilt Commodoresavg 81¢	$809.98	$944.98	+$135	25% 114-348 (462)
RN1	Vanderbilt Commodoresavg 87.8¢	$880.84	$892.04	+$11.19	58% 3802-2782 (6584)
0xheavy888	Vanderbilt Commodoresavg 92¢	$898.84	$869.53	-$29.31	55% 119-96 (215)
VeryLucky888	Vanderbilt Commodoresavg 89.8¢	$535.56	$530.6	-$4.96	51% 299-291 (590)
38 38791873984189	Vanderbilt Commodoresavg 89.9¢	$861.46	$526.76	-$2.63	48% 947-1017 (1964)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Vanderbilt Commodoresavg 89.9¢	$502.62	$497.68	-$4.94	41% 3084-4451 (7535)
nigiri99CTR	Memphis Tigersavg 10.2¢	$278.74	$367.83	+$89.08	52% 128-120 (248)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Memphis Tigersavg 18.6¢	$405.62	$318.71	-$86.9	54% 1656-1433 (3089)
tradecraft<$100	Vanderbilt Commodoresavg 89.5¢	$89.5	$89	-$0.5	18% 132-591 (723)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Memphis Tigersavg 9¢	$70.83	$78.7	+$7.87	48% 190-206 (396)
OJ ojg<$100	Vanderbilt Commodoresavg 92¢	$53.52	$54.45	+$0.94	41% 106-154 (260)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Memphis Tigersavg 5¢	$59.57	$53.61	-$5.96	50% 1503-1507 (3010)
PA Pan9X<$100	Vanderbilt Commodoresavg 87.4¢	$99.74	$29.12	+$1.49	49% 443-470 (913)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Vanderbilt Commodoresavg 91.3¢	$27.4	$26.7	-$0.7	26% 180-518 (698)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Memphis Tigersavg 8¢	$9.42	$11.78	+$2.36	28% 278-729 (1007)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Memphis Tigersavg 9¢	$9.9	$11	+$1.1	28% 284-730 (1014)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Memphis Tigersavg 8¢	$2.2	$2.75	+$0.55	28% 274-715 (989)
dips.CTR<$100	Memphis Tigersavg 6¢	$3	$2.75	-$0.25	42% 230-315 (545)

HomeRunHazard

Vanderbilt Commodores

Invested

$3,398.39

Value

$3.4K

PnL

-$37.27

Record

57%

3074-2312 (5386)

takeormake

Vanderbilt Commodores

Invested

$2,249.33

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$209.29

Record

59%

3119-2207 (5326)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Vanderbilt Commodores

Invested

$1,114.04

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$15.33

Record

56%

488-383 (871)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Vanderbilt Commodores

Invested

$809.98

Value

$944.98

PnL

+$135

Record

25%

114-348 (462)

RN1

Vanderbilt Commodores

Invested

$880.84

Value

$892.04

PnL

+$11.19

Record

58%

3802-2782 (6584)

0xheavy888

Vanderbilt Commodores

Invested

$898.84

Value

$869.53

PnL

-$29.31

Record

55%

119-96 (215)

VeryLucky888

Vanderbilt Commodores

Invested

$535.56

Value

$530.6

PnL

-$4.96

Record

51%

299-291 (590)

38791873984189

Vanderbilt Commodores

Invested

$861.46

Value

$526.76

PnL

-$2.63

Record

48%

947-1017 (1964)

xtxpleasecallme

Vanderbilt Commodores

Invested

$502.62

Value

$497.68

PnL

-$4.94

Record

41%

3084-4451 (7535)

nigiri99CTR

Memphis Tigers

Invested

$278.74

Value

$367.83

PnL

+$89.08

Record

52%

128-120 (248)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Memphis Tigers

Invested

$405.62

Value

$318.71

PnL

-$86.9

Record

54%

1656-1433 (3089)

tradecraft<$100

Vanderbilt Commodores

Invested

$89.5

Value

$89

PnL

-$0.5

Record

18%

132-591 (723)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Memphis Tigers

Invested

$70.83

Value

$78.7

PnL

+$7.87

Record

48%

190-206 (396)

ojg<$100

Vanderbilt Commodores

Invested

$53.52

Value

$54.45

PnL

+$0.94

Record

41%

106-154 (260)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Memphis Tigers

Invested

$59.57

Value

$53.61

PnL

-$5.96

Record

50%

1503-1507 (3010)

Pan9X<$100

Vanderbilt Commodores

Invested

$99.74

Value

$29.12

PnL

+$1.49

Record

49%

443-470 (913)

ameisgoat11<$100

Vanderbilt Commodores

Invested

$27.4

Value

$26.7

PnL

-$0.7

Record

26%

180-518 (698)

VenusianCTR<$100

Memphis Tigers

Invested

$9.42

Value

$11.78

PnL

+$2.36

Record

28%

278-729 (1007)

LimousinCTR<$100

Memphis Tigers

Invested

$9.9

Value

$11

PnL

+$1.1

Record

28%

284-730 (1014)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Memphis Tigers

Invested

$2.2

Value

$2.75

PnL

+$0.55

Record

28%

274-715 (989)

dips.CTR<$100

Memphis Tigers

Invested

Value

$2.75

PnL

-$0.25

Record

42%

230-315 (545)

Research grade

AvoidVanderbilt Commodores at 96%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Vanderbilt Commodores

13 of 21 top traders (62%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

71% of non-arb traders are on Vanderbilt Commodores. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMemphis Tigers 56% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedVanderbilt Commodores 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Vanderbilt Commodores 69% · 16

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Vanderbilt Commodores wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.7%

95.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.