Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (77%). 7 of 18 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Kent State vs. Bowling Green: O/U 43.5

7 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Under (39%) · Under at 24¢ · $31K held · ended Nov 11

Over77¢Under23¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 39%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$30.6K

Combined PnL

$-2.0K

Smart Money Entry

55.6¢ → 23.5¢

-58% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 24%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 18 top traders (39%)Underdog side (market favors Over 77%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over77%

Under24%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over11 traders

Total Value$19.8K

Total Shares29,595

Combined PnL+$6.6K

Under7 traders

Total Value$7.3K

Total Shares28,003

Combined PnL$-8.6K

Over — 61%Under — 39%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

35% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 77% · 13

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 63% · 16

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
IM imjustkenisghey	Overavg 44¢	$5.0K	$7.1K	+$2.1K	— 3-6 (9)
SU SunlineTicker	Overavg 43¢	$2.5K	$4.5K	+$2.0K	70% 1655-702 (2357)
nigiri99CTR	Underavg 56.5¢	$8.8K	$4.0K	$-4.6K	52% 128-120 (248)
BI big8betz	Overavg 50¢	$2.3K	$2.9K	+$591.95	50% 67-66 (133)
VeryLucky888	Overavg 43.4¢	$2.1K	$2.5K	+$840.21	51% 299-291 (590)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Underavg 54.6¢	$4.4K	$1.9K	$-2.5K	57% 3074-2312 (5386)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Overavg 44.2¢	$1.1K	$1.8K	+$776	10% 88-785 (873)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Underavg 51.8¢	$1.7K	$1.6K	-$15.53	48% 947-1017 (1964)
└ Over leg	Overavg 49.5¢	$824.58	$1.0K	+$225
└ Under leg	Underavg 51.8¢	$825.73	$590.22	-$240.53
GC GC-PARB<$100	Overavg 46.5¢	$794.81	$849.36	+$54.54	16% 67-351 (418)
└ Over leg	Overavg 46.5¢	$447.8	$607.32	+$159.52
└ Under leg	Underavg 53¢	$347.01	$242.04	-$104.98
NM NM-PARB<$100	Underavg 53.7¢	$833.09	$834.84	+$1.75	60% 3444-2339 (5783)
└ Over leg	Overavg 46.1¢	$384.51	$525.95	+$141.44
└ Under leg	Underavg 53.7¢	$448.58	$308.89	-$139.69
IC ic4creamCTR	Underavg 56¢	$1.8K	$737.43	$-1.0K	1% 4-440 (444)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Underavg 49¢	$504.81	$381.18	-$123.63	54% 1656-1433 (3089)
SN SnakeBall	Overavg 44¢	$203.04	$290.72	+$87.68	48% 190-206 (396)
GA GaditimaCTR	Underavg 58¢	$580	$235	-$345	—
PR primm	Overavg 42¢	$141.08	$211.61	+$70.54	61% 855-553 (1408)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Overavg 62.8¢	$233.6	$207.55	-$26.05	51% 3172-3071 (6243)
└ Over leg	Overavg 62.8¢	$128.7	$129.15	+$0.45
└ Under leg	Underavg 49.5¢	$104.9	$78.4	-$26.5
VE Venusian	Overavg 43¢	$126.94	$185.98	+$59.04	28% 278-729 (1007)
LI LightParadox	Overavg 43¢	$81.02	$144.13	+$63.12	28% 274-715 (989)
JU justaluckydude<$100	Overavg 55.8¢	$58.6	$80.33	+$21.73	30% 134-317 (451)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 44.9¢	$58.03	$47.82	-$10.22	49% 443-470 (913)
PU purplegattoCTR<$100	Underavg 55¢	$66	$28.2	-$37.8	69% 2573-1166 (3739)
SE sentrio<$100	Overavg 49¢	$10.64	$13.68	+$3.04	34% 233-457 (690)

imjustkenisghey

Over

Invested

$4,972.88

Value

$7.1K

PnL

+$2.1K

Record

—

3-6 (9)

SunlineTicker

Over

Invested

$2,540.87

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$2.0K

Record

70%

1655-702 (2357)

nigiri99CTR

Under

Invested

$8,843.01

Value

$4.0K

PnL

$-4.6K

Record

52%

128-120 (248)

big8betz

Over

Invested

$2,276.73

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$591.95

Record

50%

67-66 (133)

VeryLucky888

Over

Invested

$2,084.88

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$840.21

Record

51%

299-291 (590)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Under

Invested

$4,363.36

Value

$1.9K

PnL

$-2.5K

Record

57%

3074-2312 (5386)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Over

Invested

$1,060

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$776

Record

10%

88-785 (873)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,667.91

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$15.53

Record

48%

947-1017 (1964)

Both legs:

Over$824.5849.5¢+$225

Under$825.7351.8¢-$240.53

GC-PARB<$100

Over

Invested

$794.81

Value

$849.36

PnL

+$54.54

Record

16%

67-351 (418)

Both legs:

Over$447.846.5¢+$159.52

Under$347.0153¢-$104.98

NM-PARB<$100

Under

Invested

$833.09

Value

$834.84

PnL

+$1.75

Record

60%

3444-2339 (5783)

Both legs:

Over$384.5146.1¢+$141.44

Under$448.5853.7¢-$139.69

ic4creamCTR

Under

Invested

$1,757.28

Value

$737.43

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

4-440 (444)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Under

Invested

$504.81

Value

$381.18

PnL

-$123.63

Record

54%

1656-1433 (3089)

SnakeBall

Over

Invested

$203.04

Value

$290.72

PnL

+$87.68

Record

48%

190-206 (396)

GaditimaCTR

Under

Invested

$580

Value

$235

PnL

-$345

Record

—

primm

Over

Invested

$141.08

Value

$211.61

PnL

+$70.54

Record

61%

855-553 (1408)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$233.6

Value

$207.55

PnL

-$26.05

Record

51%

3172-3071 (6243)

Both legs:

Over$128.762.8¢+$0.45

Under$104.949.5¢-$26.5

Venusian

Over

Invested

$126.94

Value

$185.98

PnL

+$59.04

Record

28%

278-729 (1007)

LightParadox

Over

Invested

$81.02

Value

$144.13

PnL

+$63.12

Record

28%

274-715 (989)

justaluckydude<$100

Over

Invested

$58.6

Value

$80.33

PnL

+$21.73

Record

30%

134-317 (451)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$58.03

Value

$47.82

PnL

-$10.22

Record

49%

443-470 (913)

purplegattoCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$66

Value

$28.2

PnL

-$37.8

Record

69%

2573-1166 (3739)

sentrio<$100

Over

Invested

$10.64

Value

$13.68

PnL

+$3.04

Record

34%

233-457 (690)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 24%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 18 top traders (39%)Underdog side (market favors Over 77%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

35% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 77% · 13

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 63% · 16

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance25.4%

23.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$293.32

Max Loss

-$100.00

393.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.