Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A

19 of 32 top Polymarket traders hold Vitality (59%) · Vitality at 68¢ · $320K held · ends Nov 12

FURIA33¢Vitality67¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Vitality

Consensus Traders

Vitality 59%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$320.4K

Combined PnL

$1.5K

Smart Money Entry

67.4¢ → 67.5¢

+0% since entry · 19 traders

Research grade

NeutralVitality at 68%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Vitality

19 of 32 top traders (59%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

FURIA33%

Vitality68%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

FURIA13 traders

Total Value$115.1K

Total Shares354,665

Combined PnL-$576.76

Vitality19 traders

Total Value$205.3K

Total Shares301,595

Combined PnL+$2.1K

FURIA — 41%Vitality — 59%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

54% of non-arb traders are on Vitality. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleVitality 100% · 1

Aligned

sniperVitality 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrFURIA 60% · 10

Diverging

Hand-pickedVitality 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Vitality 57% · 23

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ZZ Zzzz87CTR	FURIAavg 33¢	$49.3K	$48.5K	-$746.39	—
tankfest2027	Vitalityavg 67¢	$40.9K	$41.5K	+$609.91	—
PA PacersThreeandahalf	Vitalityavg 67¢	$33.5K	$34.0K	+$500	61% 1010-635 (1645)
RO robloxgamblemaster-2008-10-18	Vitalityavg 68¢	$34.0K	$34.0K	-$0	51% 720-699 (1419)
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR	FURIAavg 32.4¢	$33.9K	$33.9K	+$86.44	55% 138-115 (253)
0X 0x06081d47a698bff1c673d77c50c11dd4c9da3120-1793914245258	Vitalityavg 68¢	$27.2K	$27.2K	+$0	— 5-2 (7)
KateBollinger	Vitalityavg 67¢	$23.4K	$23.8K	+$350	6% 6-91 (97)
TH Thunderous-Authoritarian-SnarlCTR	FURIAavg 32¢	$19.0K	$19.3K	+$296.95	0% 0-28 (28)
HomelessnHoeless	Vitalityavg 67¢	$13.4K	$13.6K	+$200	— 1-4 (5)
AN AnibalAugustoSardinhaCTR	FURIAavg 32¢	$9.2K	$9.2K	-$0	50% 102-100 (202)
Satanishippie	Vitalityavg 68¢	$7.0K	$6.9K	-$51.47	—
PA Partyarty91	Vitalityavg 68.3¢	$5.0K	$5.0K	+$48.13	0% 0-74 (74)
relativesignificance	Vitalityavg 68¢	$4.7K	$4.7K	-$0	56% 147-116 (263)
BananaFarmer	Vitalityavg 67¢	$3.4K	$3.4K	+$50	—
Stickman22	Vitalityavg 66¢	$3.0K	$3.1K	+$135	— 4-3 (7)
BL BlessedKaladin	Vitalityavg 67¢	$2.7K	$2.7K	+$40	4% 2-47 (49)
one8tyfiveCTR	FURIAavg 34¢	$2.4K	$2.3K	-$142.44	—
AS asuka7	Vitalityavg 68¢	$2.0K	$2.1K	+$29.99	3% 9-313 (322)
JU JuiceFarm	Vitalityavg 67¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$40	64% 21-12 (33)
WI Wiretransferxyz	Vitalityavg 64¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$89.74	56% 384-300 (684)
NO nobody2somebodyCTR	FURIAavg 33¢	$1.0K	$976	-$30.5	—
38 38791873984189	Vitalityavg 67.7¢	$622.32	$490.32	+$6	48% 1454-1600 (3054)
VeryLucky888CTR	FURIAavg 33.9¢	$1.2K	$320	-$39.89	51% 505-476 (981)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	FURIAavg 32¢	$256	$256	+$0	15% 153-845 (998)
LI LightParadoxCTR	FURIAavg 32¢	$161.8	$164.33	+$2.53	31% 423-938 (1361)

Zzzz87CTR

FURIA

Invested

$49,262.07

Value

$48.5K

PnL

-$746.39

Record

—

tankfest2027

Vitality

Invested

$40,863.84

Value

$41.5K

PnL

+$609.91

Record

—

PacersThreeandahalf

Vitality

Invested

$33,500

Value

$34.0K

PnL

+$500

Record

61%

1010-635 (1645)

robloxgamblemaster-2008-10-18

Vitality

Invested

$33,999.91

Value

$34.0K

PnL

-$0

Record

51%

720-699 (1419)

0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR

FURIA

Invested

$33,850.46

Value

$33.9K

PnL

+$86.44

Record

55%

138-115 (253)

0x06081d47a698bff1c673d77c50c11dd4c9da3120-1793914245258

Vitality

Invested

$27,199.97

Value

$27.2K

PnL

+$0

Record

—

5-2 (7)

KateBollinger

Vitality

Invested

$23,450

Value

$23.8K

PnL

+$350

Record

6-91 (97)

Thunderous-Authoritarian-SnarlCTR

FURIA

Invested

$19,004.91

Value

$19.3K

PnL

+$296.95

Record

0-28 (28)

HomelessnHoeless

Vitality

Invested

$13,400

Value

$13.6K

PnL

+$200

Record

—

1-4 (5)

AnibalAugustoSardinhaCTR

FURIA

Invested

$9,202.63

Value

$9.2K

PnL

-$0

Record

50%

102-100 (202)

Satanishippie

Vitality

Invested

$7,000

Value

$6.9K

PnL

-$51.47

Record

—

Partyarty91

Vitality

Invested

$5,000

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$48.13

Record

0-74 (74)

relativesignificance

Vitality

Invested

$4,650.13

Value

$4.7K

PnL

-$0

Record

56%

147-116 (263)

BananaFarmer

Vitality

Invested

$3,350

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$50

Record

—

Stickman22

Vitality

Invested

$2,970

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$135

Record

—

4-3 (7)

BlessedKaladin

Vitality

Invested

$2,679.99

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$40

Record

2-47 (49)

one8tyfiveCTR

FURIA

Invested

$2,421.46

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$142.44

Record

—

asuka7

Vitality

Invested

$2,039.1

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$29.99

Record

9-313 (322)

JuiceFarm

Vitality

Invested

$1,339.99

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$40

Record

64%

21-12 (33)

Wiretransferxyz

Vitality

Invested

$1,148.69

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$89.74

Record

56%

384-300 (684)

nobody2somebodyCTR

FURIA

Invested

$1,006.5

Value

$976

PnL

-$30.5

Record

—

38791873984189

Vitality

Invested

$622.32

Value

$490.32

PnL

+$6

Record

48%

1454-1600 (3054)

VeryLucky888CTR

FURIA

Invested

$1,183.08

Value

$320

PnL

-$39.89

Record

51%

505-476 (981)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

FURIA

Invested

$256

Value

$256

PnL

+$0

Record

15%

153-845 (998)

LightParadoxCTR

FURIA

Invested

$161.8

Value

$164.33

PnL

+$2.53

Record

31%

423-938 (1361)

Research grade

NeutralVitality at 68%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Vitality

19 of 32 top traders (59%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

54% of non-arb traders are on Vitality. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleVitality 100% · 1

Aligned

sniperVitality 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrFURIA 60% · 10

Diverging

Hand-pickedVitality 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Vitality 57% · 23

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Vitality wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.6%

67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$43.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

143.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.