Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs MOUZ (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group B

10 of 25 top Polymarket traders hold MOUZ (40%) · MOUZ at 84¢ · $338K held · ends Nov 12

FUT Esports17¢MOUZ83¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

MOUZ

Consensus Traders

MOUZ 40%

Total Value

$337.9K

Combined PnL

$-1.9K

Smart Money Entry

84.3¢ → 83.5¢

-1% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralMOUZ at 84%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

MOUZ

10 of 25 top traders (40%)15 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

FUT Esports17%

MOUZ84%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

MOUZ10 traders

Total Value$309.2K

Total Shares370,740

Combined PnL$-3.2K

FUT Esports15 traders

Total Value$28.6K

Total Shares177,463

Combined PnL+$1.3K

MOUZ — 40%FUT Esports — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on MOUZ. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on MOUZ) and the top 1000 (25 on FUT Esports) disagree here.

whaleMOUZ 100% · 1

Aligned

sniperFUT Esports 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrFUT Esports 80% · 15

Diverging

Hand-pickedMOUZ 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000FUT Esports 60% · 25

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RO robloxgamblemaster-2008-10-18	MOUZavg 84¢	$252.0K	$250.5K	$-1.5K	51% 721-699 (1420)
0X 0xf5592765133941c40C77e52Bc56bbe7EC167F462-1755612447740	MOUZavg 85.9¢	$45.0K	$43.5K	$-1.5K	— 4-11 (15)
relativesignificance	MOUZavg 84.4¢	$9.7K	$9.5K	-$159.22	56% 147-116 (263)
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR	FUT Esportsavg 16¢	$7.1K	$7.4K	+$223.09	54% 138-116 (254)
drainedandpoorCTR	FUT Esportsavg 14¢	$5.4K	$6.2K	+$773.6	47% 416-462 (878)
PA PacersThreeandahalfCTR	FUT Esportsavg 16¢	$5.3K	$5.3K	+$0	61% 1010-635 (1645)
OJ ojgtubvdt	MOUZavg 84¢	$4.2K	$4.2K	-$50	— 9-7 (16)
0X 0x06081d47a698bff1c673d77c50c11dd4c9da3120-1793914245258CTR	FUT Esportsavg 16¢	$4.0K	$4.0K	+$0	— 5-2 (7)
HomelessnHoelessCTR	FUT Esportsavg 16¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$0	— 5-5 (10)
QW QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCF	MOUZavg 85¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	-$24.18	— 7-9 (16)
BananaFarmerCTR	FUT Esportsavg 16¢	$959.99	$959.99	+$0	— 5-5 (10)
BL BlessedKaladinCTR	FUT Esportsavg 15¢	$857.6	$943.36	+$85.76	4% 2-47 (49)
0X 0xbb299ce4867ea634a83a254e24d1ffc5c148947aCTR	FUT Esportsavg 14¢	$1.4K	$800	+$200	— 0-6 (6)
Stickman22CTR	FUT Esportsavg 15¢	$750	$800	+$50	— 4-3 (7)
polaroid14CTR	FUT Esportsavg 15.7¢	$470	$480	+$10	— 3-5 (8)
0X 0x17bec72f65b07cacd12000a0ba0ba162b6b7c52b	MOUZavg 83.5¢	$305.86	$304.02	-$1.83	—
LI LightParadoxCTR	FUT Esportsavg 17¢	$126.37	$118.94	-$7.43	31% 441-967 (1408)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	MOUZavg 84¢	$99.99	$98.8	-$1.19	41% 3187-4522 (7709)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	MOUZavg 84¢	$70.85	$70.01	-$0.84	61% 935-598 (1533)
fyrskenCTR<$100	FUT Esportsavg 16¢	$48	$49.5	+$1.5	39% 13-20 (33)
GH ghorrock	MOUZavg 83.6¢	$201.44	$34.04	+$0.92	55% 729-596 (1325)
TH thatsabing0<$100	MOUZavg 85¢	$33.75	$32.96	-$0.79	66% 122-63 (185)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	FUT Esportsavg 16.7¢	$6.66	$6.58	-$0.08	47% 1320-1474 (2794)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	FUT Esportsavg 15¢	$3.33	$3.56	+$0.22	36% 410-719 (1129)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	FUT Esportsavg 16¢	$1.6	$1.6	+$0	49% 786-829 (1615)

robloxgamblemaster-2008-10-18

MOUZ

Invested

$251,999.93

Value

$250.5K

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

51%

721-699 (1420)

0xf5592765133941c40C77e52Bc56bbe7EC167F462-1755612447740

MOUZ

Invested

$45,000

Value

$43.5K

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

—

4-11 (15)

relativesignificance

MOUZ

Invested

$9,690.84

Value

$9.5K

PnL

-$159.22

Record

56%

147-116 (263)

0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR

FUT Esports

Invested

$7,138.82

Value

$7.4K

PnL

+$223.09

Record

54%

138-116 (254)

drainedandpoorCTR

FUT Esports

Invested

$5,415.17

Value

$6.2K

PnL

+$773.6

Record

47%

416-462 (878)

PacersThreeandahalfCTR

FUT Esports

Invested

$5,333.28

Value

$5.3K

PnL

+$0

Record

61%

1010-635 (1645)

ojgtubvdt

MOUZ

Invested

$4,200

Value

$4.2K

PnL

-$50

Record

—

9-7 (16)

0x06081d47a698bff1c673d77c50c11dd4c9da3120-1793914245258CTR

FUT Esports

Invested

$4,000

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$0

Record

—

5-2 (7)

HomelessnHoelessCTR

FUT Esports

Invested

$1,600

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$0

Record

—

5-5 (10)

QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCF

MOUZ

Invested

$1,027.7

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$24.18

Record

—

7-9 (16)

BananaFarmerCTR

FUT Esports

Invested

$959.99

Value

$959.99

PnL

+$0

Record

—

5-5 (10)

BlessedKaladinCTR

FUT Esports

Invested

$857.6

Value

$943.36

PnL

+$85.76

Record

2-47 (49)

0xbb299ce4867ea634a83a254e24d1ffc5c148947aCTR

FUT Esports

Invested

$1,400

Value

$800

PnL

+$200

Record

—

0-6 (6)

Stickman22CTR

FUT Esports

Invested

$750

Value

$800

PnL

+$50

Record

—

4-3 (7)

polaroid14CTR

FUT Esports

Invested

$470

Value

$480

PnL

+$10

Record

—

3-5 (8)

0x17bec72f65b07cacd12000a0ba0ba162b6b7c52b

MOUZ

Invested

$305.86

Value

$304.02

PnL

-$1.83

Record

—

LightParadoxCTR

FUT Esports

Invested

$126.37

Value

$118.94

PnL

-$7.43

Record

31%

441-967 (1408)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

MOUZ

Invested

$99.99

Value

$98.8

PnL

-$1.19

Record

41%

3187-4522 (7709)

darkumbreon88<$100

MOUZ

Invested

$70.85

Value

$70.01

PnL

-$0.84

Record

61%

935-598 (1533)

fyrskenCTR<$100

FUT Esports

Invested

$48

Value

$49.5

PnL

+$1.5

Record

39%

13-20 (33)

ghorrock

MOUZ

Invested

$201.44

Value

$34.04

PnL

+$0.92

Record

55%

729-596 (1325)

thatsabing0<$100

MOUZ

Invested

$33.75

Value

$32.96

PnL

-$0.79

Record

66%

122-63 (185)

suntoriCTR<$100

FUT Esports

Invested

$6.66

Value

$6.58

PnL

-$0.08

Record

47%

1320-1474 (2794)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

FUT Esports

Invested

$3.33

Value

$3.56

PnL

+$0.22

Record

36%

410-719 (1129)

Pan9XCTR<$100

FUT Esports

Invested

$1.6

Value

$1.6

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

786-829 (1615)

Research grade

NeutralMOUZ at 84%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

MOUZ

10 of 25 top traders (40%)15 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on MOUZ. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on MOUZ) and the top 1000 (25 on FUT Esports) disagree here.

whaleMOUZ 100% · 1

Aligned

sniperFUT Esports 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrFUT Esports 80% · 15

Diverging

Hand-pickedMOUZ 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000FUT Esports 60% · 25

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that MOUZ wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.2%

83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$17.43

Max Loss

-$100.00

117.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.