Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner

27 of 44 top Polymarket traders hold MOUZ (61%) · MOUZ at 69¢ · $167K held · ends Nov 12

FUT Esports32¢MOUZ68¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

MOUZ

Consensus Traders

MOUZ 61%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$167.5K

Combined PnL

$6.2K

Smart Money Entry

67.8¢ → 68.5¢

+1% since entry · 27 traders

Research grade

NeutralMOUZ at 69%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

MOUZ

27 of 44 top traders (61%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed17 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

FUT Esports32%

MOUZ69%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

MOUZ27 traders

Total Value$108.8K

Total Shares154,677

Combined PnL+$3.0K

FUT Esports17 traders

Total Value$51.0K

Total Shares158,926

Combined PnL+$3.2K

MOUZ — 61%FUT Esports — 39%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	MOUZavg 74¢	$44.4K	$44.7K	+$300	51% 3760-3565 (7325)
FA fantasy7788CTR	FUT Esportsavg 26¢	$19.0K	$23.0K	+$4.0K	42% 106-147 (253)
QI qiu3CTR	FUT Esportsavg 25.3¢	$11.1K	$13.8K	+$2.7K	6% 2-34 (36)
AS asuka7	MOUZavg 75¢	$11.3K	$11.3K	-$75.65	5% 15-315 (330)
DamwonChampions2026	MOUZavg 53¢	$5.0K	$6.4K	+$1.5K	— 7-5 (12)
KK Kkunn	MOUZavg 75¢	$6.0K	$5.5K	-$520	12% 19-140 (159)
PA PacersThreeandahalf	MOUZavg 58.5¢	$4.4K	$5.2K	+$755.56	61% 1015-643 (1658)
minji	MOUZavg 54.6¢	$3.9K	$4.9K	+$998.04	— 9-5 (14)
0xheavy888	MOUZavg 57¢	$3.9K	$4.2K	+$699.93	55% 262-216 (478)
WE weeeskies	MOUZavg 75¢	$4.4K	$3.5K	+$137.39	— 3-7 (10)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100	FUT Esportsavg 41.1¢	$11.3K	$3.2K	-$304.01	62% 86-52 (138)
└ FUT Esports leg	FUT Esportsavg 41.1¢	$2.4K	$1.8K	+$144.6
└ MOUZ leg	MOUZavg 58.3¢	$1.2K	$1.4K	-$448.62
PE penguin1125	MOUZavg 75¢	$3.5K	$3.2K	-$300.71	3% 3-110 (113)
SU SuperMegaManCTR	FUT Esportsavg 25¢	$2.9K	$3.0K	+$58.23	49% 608-631 (1239)
BL black-rabbit	MOUZavg 55.5¢	$3.3K	$2.9K	-$420	7% 5-69 (74)
WH white-rabbit	MOUZavg 55.5¢	$3.3K	$2.9K	-$419.99	6% 5-72 (77)
31 319113331313111ARB<$100	FUT Esportsavg 41.8¢	$4.1K	$2.3K	+$189.28	57% 101-75 (176)
└ FUT Esports leg	FUT Esportsavg 41.8¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$267.25
└ MOUZ leg	MOUZavg 54.4¢	$653.05	$666	-$77.97
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	MOUZavg 55.5¢	$1.8K	$2.1K	+$337.02	51% 2022-1934 (3956)
CA calm919CTR	FUT Esportsavg 53¢	$3.1K	$1.8K	$-1.2K	4% 4-86 (90)
latvian.demon	MOUZavg 68¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$11.75	7% 31-440 (471)
BR Brz4629CTR	FUT Esportsavg 26.3¢	$1.3K	$1.6K	+$305.84	75% 15-5 (20)
SU suntoriARB<$100	MOUZavg 72.5¢	$1.8K	$1.5K	-$96.7	47% 1458-1629 (3087)
└ MOUZ leg	MOUZavg 72.5¢	$1.1K	$997.33	-$121.64
└ FUT Esports leg	FUT Esportsavg 30.1¢	$522	$546.56	+$24.93
0X 0xf483653F527A9EE5730EAF28709C2856Ab5Fa89c-1765271749237	MOUZavg 57¢	$1.2K	$1.5K	+$252.19	48% 31-33 (64)
VladooosCTR	FUT Esportsavg 24.3¢	$692.72	$1.5K	+$806.59	63% 25-15 (40)
Stickman22	MOUZavg 74¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$10	— 5-3 (8)
JO jole24	MOUZavg 74¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$10	— 8-10 (18)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465

MOUZ

Invested

$44,400

Value

$44.7K

PnL

+$300

Record

51%

3760-3565 (7325)

fantasy7788CTR

FUT Esports

Invested

$19,000

Value

$23.0K

PnL

+$4.0K

Record

42%

106-147 (253)

qiu3CTR

FUT Esports

Invested

$11,050.7

Value

$13.8K

PnL

+$2.7K

Record

2-34 (36)

asuka7

MOUZ

Invested

$11,346.86

Value

$11.3K

PnL

-$75.65

Record

15-315 (330)

DamwonChampions2026

MOUZ

Invested

$4,990.7

Value

$6.4K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

—

7-5 (12)

Kkunn

MOUZ

Invested

$6,000

Value

$5.5K

PnL

-$520

Record

12%

19-140 (159)

PacersThreeandahalf

MOUZ

Invested

$4,443.47

Value

$5.2K

PnL

+$755.56

Record

61%

1015-643 (1658)

minji

MOUZ

Invested

$3,902.75

Value

$4.9K

PnL

+$998.04

Record

—

9-5 (14)

0xheavy888

MOUZ

Invested

$3,861.28

Value

$4.2K

PnL

+$699.93

Record

55%

262-216 (478)

weeeskies

MOUZ

Invested

$4,386

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$137.39

Record

—

3-7 (10)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100

FUT Esports

Invested

$11,330.68

Value

$3.2K

PnL

-$304.01

Record

62%

86-52 (138)

Both legs:

FUT Esports$2,376.9541.1¢+$144.6

MOUZ$1,166.4758.3¢-$448.62

penguin1125

MOUZ

Invested

$3,469.72

Value

$3.2K

PnL

-$300.71

Record

3-110 (113)

SuperMegaManCTR

FUT Esports

Invested

$2,911.41

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$58.23

Record

49%

608-631 (1239)

black-rabbit

MOUZ

Invested

$3,329.99

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$420

Record

5-69 (74)

white-rabbit

MOUZ

Invested

$3,329.97

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$419.99

Record

5-72 (77)

319113331313111ARB<$100

FUT Esports

Invested

$4,135.65

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$189.28

Record

57%

101-75 (176)

Both legs:

FUT Esports$1,503.9241.8¢+$267.25

MOUZ$653.0554.4¢-$77.97

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

MOUZ

Invested

$1,795.32

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$337.02

Record

51%

2022-1934 (3956)

calm919CTR

FUT Esports

Invested

$3,060.75

Value

$1.8K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

4-86 (90)

latvian.demon

MOUZ

Invested

$1,597.99

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$11.75

Record

31-440 (471)

Brz4629CTR

FUT Esports

Invested

$1,287.36

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$305.84

Record

75%

15-5 (20)

suntoriARB<$100

MOUZ

Invested

$1,758.26

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$96.7

Record

47%

1458-1629 (3087)

Both legs:

MOUZ$1,055.8672.5¢-$121.64

FUT Esports$52230.1¢+$24.93

0xf483653F527A9EE5730EAF28709C2856Ab5Fa89c-1765271749237

MOUZ

Invested

$1,249.99

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$252.19

Record

48%

31-33 (64)

VladooosCTR

FUT Esports

Invested

$692.72

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$806.59

Record

63%

25-15 (40)

Stickman22

MOUZ

Invested

$1,480

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$10

Record

—

5-3 (8)

jole24

MOUZ

Invested

$1,479.99

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$10

Record

—

8-10 (18)

Research grade

NeutralMOUZ at 69%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

MOUZ

27 of 44 top traders (61%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed17 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that MOUZ wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.6%

68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$41.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

141.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.