Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs TYLOO (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group B

19 of 23 top Polymarket traders hold MOUZ (83%) · MOUZ at 97¢ · $80K held · ends Nov 2

MOUZ97¢TYLOO3¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

MOUZ

Consensus Traders

MOUZ 83%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$80.0K

Combined PnL

$417.37

Smart Money Entry

91.8¢ → 96.7¢

+5% since entry · 19 traders

Research grade

NeutralMOUZ at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

MOUZ

19 of 23 top traders (83%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

MOUZ97%

TYLOO3%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

MOUZ19 traders

Total Value$76.1K

Total Shares80,379

Combined PnL+$2.1K

TYLOO4 traders

Total Value$3.6K

Total Shares62,188

Combined PnL$-1.6K

MOUZ — 83%TYLOO — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+16 pts consensus

Breadth

15 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

79% of non-arb traders are on MOUZ. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on TYLOO) and the top 1000 (19 on MOUZ) disagree here.

whaleMOUZ 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpMOUZ 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrMOUZ 75% · 12

Aligned

Hand-pickedTYLOO 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000MOUZ 79% · 19

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
YI yishiwucheng	MOUZavg 92¢	$28.0K	$28.7K	+$673.03	51% 1849-1779 (3628)
Chopperyyy	MOUZavg 91.3¢	$15.0K	$15.5K	+$475.83	64% 383-219 (602)
relativesignificance	MOUZavg 89.9¢	$11.4K	$11.9K	+$539.5	55% 119-96 (215)
CA calculate10	MOUZavg 92.5¢	$5.2K	$5.2K	+$97.21	53% 1237-1083 (2320)
JA jakepaulthegoat2008CTR	TYLOOavg 8¢	$4.0K	$2.9K	$-1.1K	50% 7353-7469 (14822)
WE weeeskies	MOUZavg 96¢	$2.9K	$2.9K	+$17.82	53% 689-609 (1298)
SU suleng66	MOUZavg 90.8¢	$2.2K	$2.1K	+$81.14	63% 204-118 (322)
obakobakk	MOUZavg 95¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$9.08	63% 152-88 (240)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f	MOUZavg 92.7¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$30.76	54% 2549-2184 (4733)
fxwd12345	MOUZavg 90¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$68.23	69% 1551-709 (2260)
GT gt7238	MOUZavg 96¢	$960	$942.07	-$17.93	45% 633-774 (1407)
DA darkumbreon88	MOUZavg 90¢	$889.36	$930.93	+$41.57	65% 1809-988 (2797)
NO NotJump	MOUZavg 93.3¢	$842.5	$848.02	+$5.52	43% 7727-10453 (18180)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	MOUZavg 93.3¢	$738.49	$753.35	+$14.86	52% 14025-12786 (26811)
ZY Zywoo123CTR	TYLOOavg 10¢	$1.1K	$602.41	-$492.84	52% 951-881 (1832)
FR frohp5	MOUZavg 94.2¢	$500	$500	+$0	65% 1997-1069 (3066)
ZZ Zzzz87	MOUZavg 91¢	$421.33	$436.18	+$16.21	47% 3172-3549 (6721)
38 38791873984189	MOUZavg 90¢	$326.8	$313.41	-$13.39	47% 12988-14555 (27543)
SU suntoriARB<$100	TYLOOavg 4¢	$296.25	$279.25	-$20.06	45% 12892-15654 (28546)
└ TYLOO leg	TYLOOavg 4¢	$192.96	$167.63	-$25.33
└ MOUZ leg	MOUZavg 91¢	$105.25	$111.62	+$5.27
OM omnibus-076daa	MOUZavg 94¢	$157.92	$156.69	-$1.23	50% 19814-20154 (39968)
poshposh	MOUZavg 92¢	$138	$141.31	+$3.31	58% 11427-8282 (19709)
OD Oddstorm<$100	MOUZavg 81¢	$60.75	$70.88	+$10.13	48% 7158-7651 (14809)
XY Xyp9xFanCTR<$100	TYLOOavg 9¢	$90	$57.93	-$35	55% 469-391 (860)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	TYLOOavg 7.1¢	$16.69	$13.59	-$3.1	47% 10052-11159 (21211)

yishiwucheng

MOUZ

Invested

$28,000.29

Value

$28.7K

PnL

+$673.03

Record

51%

1849-1779 (3628)

Chopperyyy

MOUZ

Invested

$15,000

Value

$15.5K

PnL

+$475.83

Record

64%

383-219 (602)

relativesignificance

MOUZ

Invested

$11,368.25

Value

$11.9K

PnL

+$539.5

Record

55%

119-96 (215)

calculate10

MOUZ

Invested

$5,160.16

Value

$5.2K

PnL

+$97.21

Record

53%

1237-1083 (2320)

jakepaulthegoat2008CTR

TYLOO

Invested

$4,000.07

Value

$2.9K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

50%

7353-7469 (14822)

weeeskies

MOUZ

Invested

$2,851.72

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$17.82

Record

53%

689-609 (1298)

suleng66

MOUZ

Invested

$2,202.26

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$81.14

Record

63%

204-118 (322)

obakobakk

MOUZ

Invested

$1,725.98

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$9.08

Record

63%

152-88 (240)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f

MOUZ

Invested

$1,511.07

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$30.76

Record

54%

2549-2184 (4733)

fxwd12345

MOUZ

Invested

$1,459.71

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$68.23

Record

69%

1551-709 (2260)

gt7238

MOUZ

Invested

$960

Value

$942.07

PnL

-$17.93

Record

45%

633-774 (1407)

darkumbreon88

MOUZ

Invested

$889.36

Value

$930.93

PnL

+$41.57

Record

65%

1809-988 (2797)

NotJump

MOUZ

Invested

$842.5

Value

$848.02

PnL

+$5.52

Record

43%

7727-10453 (18180)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

MOUZ

Invested

$738.49

Value

$753.35

PnL

+$14.86

Record

52%

14025-12786 (26811)

Zywoo123CTR

TYLOO

Invested

$1,095.24

Value

$602.41

PnL

-$492.84

Record

52%

951-881 (1832)

frohp5

MOUZ

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

65%

1997-1069 (3066)

Zzzz87

MOUZ

Invested

$421.33

Value

$436.18

PnL

+$16.21

Record

47%

3172-3549 (6721)

38791873984189

MOUZ

Invested

$326.8

Value

$313.41

PnL

-$13.39

Record

47%

12988-14555 (27543)

suntoriARB<$100

TYLOO

Invested

$296.25

Value

$279.25

PnL

-$20.06

Record

45%

12892-15654 (28546)

Both legs:

TYLOO$192.964¢-$25.33

MOUZ$105.2591¢+$5.27

omnibus-076daa

MOUZ

Invested

$157.92

Value

$156.69

PnL

-$1.23

Record

50%

19814-20154 (39968)

poshposh

MOUZ

Invested

$138

Value

$141.31

PnL

+$3.31

Record

58%

11427-8282 (19709)

Oddstorm<$100

MOUZ

Invested

$60.75

Value

$70.88

PnL

+$10.13

Record

48%

7158-7651 (14809)

Xyp9xFanCTR<$100

TYLOO

Invested

$90

Value

$57.93

PnL

-$35

Record

55%

469-391 (860)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

TYLOO

Invested

$16.69

Value

$13.59

PnL

-$3.1

Record

47%

10052-11159 (21211)

Research grade

NeutralMOUZ at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

MOUZ

19 of 23 top traders (83%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+16 pts consensus

Breadth

15 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

79% of non-arb traders are on MOUZ. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on TYLOO) and the top 1000 (19 on MOUZ) disagree here.

whaleMOUZ 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpMOUZ 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrMOUZ 75% · 12

Aligned

Hand-pickedTYLOO 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000MOUZ 79% · 19

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that MOUZ wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.8%

96.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.