Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5)

12 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Vitality (67%) · Vitality at 60¢ · $79K held · ends Nov 11

Vitality60¢Team Falcons40¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Vitality

Consensus Traders

Vitality 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$79.0K

Combined PnL

$6.5K

Smart Money Entry

44.6¢ → 60¢

+34% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralVitality at 60%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Vitality

12 of 18 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Vitality60%

Team Falcons40%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Team Falcons6 traders

Total Value$26.7K

Total Shares51,562

Combined PnL$-2.4K

Vitality12 traders

Total Value$46.5K

Total Shares84,049

Combined PnL+$9.0K

Team Falcons — 33%Vitality — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 54%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on Vitality. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 54% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleVitality 100% · 1

Aligned

sniperTeam Falcons 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrVitality 83% · 12

Aligned

Hand-pickedVitality 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Vitality 65% · 17

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
WI WiretransferxyzCTR	Team Falconsavg 56¢	$25.2K	$23.2K	$-2.0K	56% 379-298 (677)
TH THEHIGHLIFE	Vitalityavg 44¢	$10.8K	$14.1K	+$3.6K	52% 1346-1232 (2578)
UB ubetteruuuu	Vitalityavg 48.9¢	$9.8K	$12.0K	+$2.2K	11% 13-104 (117)
vtcchampion52	Vitalityavg 44¢	$8.6K	$9.4K	+$872.03	48% 844-900 (1744)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	Vitalityavg 42¢	$5.6K	$7.3K	+$1.6K	51% 3682-3522 (7204)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Team Falconsavg 50.6¢	$5.6K	$5.9K	+$295.77	54% 1691-1468 (3159)
└ Team Falcons leg	Team Falconsavg 50.6¢	$3.4K	$3.5K	+$62.98
└ Vitality leg	Vitalityavg 43.8¢	$2.2K	$2.4K	+$232.79
AS asuka7CTR	Team Falconsavg 58.8¢	$1.8K	$1.6K	-$227.14	2% 5-304 (309)
polaroid14CTR	Team Falconsavg 57.5¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$120	— 1-1 (2)
VeryLucky888	Vitalityavg 37¢	$685.52	$898.59	+$213.07	51% 354-335 (689)
FR frohp5	Vitalityavg 43¢	$750	$845.93	+$95.93	60% 1220-803 (2023)
IW iWasEnoughCTR	Team Falconsavg 56¢	$859.38	$809.57	-$49.81	— 2-1 (3)
PA panpidaras1	Vitalityavg 44.4¢	$500	$664.49	+$164.49	5% 14-261 (275)
10 10scat	Vitalityavg 43¢	$450	$507.56	+$57.56	2% 12-513 (525)
TA takeormake	Vitalityavg 42.4¢	$219.72	$250.04	+$30.32	58% 3133-2226 (5359)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Vitalityavg 41¢	$164	$188	+$24	12% 105-801 (906)
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG	Vitalityavg 43¢	$160	$180.47	+$20.47	17% 81-386 (467)
relativesignificance<$100	Vitalityavg 39¢	$57.29	$69.05	+$11.75	57% 145-111 (256)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Team Falconsavg 48¢	$38.8	$32.32	-$6.48	27% 201-533 (734)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Team Falconsavg 58¢	$5.47	$5	-$0.47	40% 246-365 (611)

WiretransferxyzCTR

Team Falcons

Invested

$25,199.96

Value

$23.2K

PnL

$-2.0K

Record

56%

379-298 (677)

THEHIGHLIFE

Vitality

Invested

$10,763.81

Value

$14.1K

PnL

+$3.6K

Record

52%

1346-1232 (2578)

ubetteruuuu

Vitality

Invested

$9,825.64

Value

$12.0K

PnL

+$2.2K

Record

11%

13-104 (117)

vtcchampion52

Vitality

Invested

$8,577.25

Value

$9.4K

PnL

+$872.03

Record

48%

844-900 (1744)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465

Vitality

Invested

$5,644.55

Value

$7.3K

PnL

+$1.6K

Record

51%

3682-3522 (7204)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Team Falcons

Invested

$5,598.9

Value

$5.9K

PnL

+$295.77

Record

54%

1691-1468 (3159)

Both legs:

Team Falcons$3,408.5350.6¢+$62.98

Vitality$2,190.3743.8¢+$232.79

asuka7CTR

Team Falcons

Invested

$1,836.63

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$227.14

Record

5-304 (309)

polaroid14CTR

Team Falcons

Invested

$1,149.99

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$120

Record

—

1-1 (2)

VeryLucky888

Vitality

Invested

$685.52

Value

$898.59

PnL

+$213.07

Record

51%

354-335 (689)

frohp5

Vitality

Invested

$750

Value

$845.93

PnL

+$95.93

Record

60%

1220-803 (2023)

iWasEnoughCTR

Team Falcons

Invested

$859.38

Value

$809.57

PnL

-$49.81

Record

—

2-1 (3)

panpidaras1

Vitality

Invested

$500

Value

$664.49

PnL

+$164.49

Record

14-261 (275)

10scat

Vitality

Invested

$450

Value

$507.56

PnL

+$57.56

Record

12-513 (525)

takeormake

Vitality

Invested

$219.72

Value

$250.04

PnL

+$30.32

Record

58%

3133-2226 (5359)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Vitality

Invested

$164

Value

$188

PnL

+$24

Record

12%

105-801 (906)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG

Vitality

Invested

$160

Value

$180.47

PnL

+$20.47

Record

17%

81-386 (467)

relativesignificance<$100

Vitality

Invested

$57.29

Value

$69.05

PnL

+$11.75

Record

57%

145-111 (256)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Team Falcons

Invested

$38.8

Value

$32.32

PnL

-$6.48

Record

27%

201-533 (734)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Team Falcons

Invested

$5.47

Value

PnL

-$0.47

Record

40%

246-365 (611)

Research grade

NeutralVitality at 60%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Vitality

12 of 18 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 54%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on Vitality. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 54% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleVitality 100% · 1

Aligned

sniperTeam Falcons 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrVitality 83% · 12

Aligned

Hand-pickedVitality 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Vitality 65% · 17

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Vitality wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.2%

60.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$60.80

Max Loss

-$100.00

160.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.