West Bromwich Albion FC vs. Southampton FC: O/U 2.5

9 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Under (56%) · Under at 51¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 3

Over50¢Under50¢Ended Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 56%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.5K

Combined PnL

-$671.08

Smart Money Entry

62.3¢ → 50.5¢

-19% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 51%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 16 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over50%

Under51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under9 traders

Total Value$3.6K

Total Shares6,883

Combined PnL-$747.92

Over7 traders

Total Value$587.51

Total Shares1,187

Combined PnL+$76.84

Under — 56%Over — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

56% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Over) and the top 1000 (14 on Under) disagree here.

whaleUnder 60% · 5

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 50% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Under 64% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GA GamblingOdyssey	Underavg 50¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$14.5	51% 893-847 (1740)
DA dashattacker	Underavg 86.2¢	$1.6K	$908.61	-$641.99	73% 2863-1078 (3941)
RN1	Underavg 60.3¢	$870.92	$786.53	-$84.39	53% 59235-51541 (110776)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Overavg 45.3¢	$332.95	$363.52	+$30.57	52% 992-931 (1923)
LI LimousinARB<$100	Overavg 44.5¢	$279.78	$307.59	+$27.81	54% 1090-911 (2001)
└ Over leg	Overavg 44.5¢	$192.98	$214.67	+$21.69
└ Under leg	Underavg 47.2¢	$86.8	$92.92	+$6.12
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 40.3¢	$130.97	$163.92	+$32.95	50% 27453-27352 (54805)
TO topdogbigboi	Underavg 87¢	$140.1	$91.05	-$49.05	47% 10701-12047 (22748)
VE Venusian<$100	Underavg 48.9¢	$83.14	$85.85	+$2.71	52% 1065-966 (2031)
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 49¢	$100.1	$74.77	+$1.29	58% 44814-32606 (77420)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Overavg 49.6¢	$74.49	$74.38	-$0.11	53% 16428-14604 (31032)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Overavg 13.6¢	$17.1	$62.4	+$45.3	53% 1052-943 (1995)
poshposh<$100	Underavg 87¢	$55.33	$32.12	-$23.21	57% 12000-9088 (21088)
BE berlinskies<$100	Underavg 52.2¢	$18.55	$17.93	-$0.62	58% 6349-4583 (10932)
MU Multicoloured-Serf<$100	Underavg 43.8¢	$9.25	$10.66	+$1.19	48% 281-309 (590)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Overavg 50¢	$6.58	$6.51	-$0.07	50% 25302-25019 (50321)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Overavg 51.3¢	$3.57	$3.45	-$0.12	51% 7432-7171 (14603)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Overavg 57¢	$2.5	$2.48	-$0.03	50% 20309-20664 (40973)

GamblingOdyssey

Under

Invested

$1,450

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$14.5

Record

51%

893-847 (1740)

dashattacker

Under

Invested

$1,550.6

Value

$908.61

PnL

-$641.99

Record

73%

2863-1078 (3941)

RN1

Under

Invested

$870.92

Value

$786.53

PnL

-$84.39

Record

53%

59235-51541 (110776)

MadridTimeCTR

Over

Invested

$332.95

Value

$363.52

PnL

+$30.57

Record

52%

992-931 (1923)

LimousinARB<$100

Over

Invested

$279.78

Value

$307.59

PnL

+$27.81

Record

54%

1090-911 (2001)

Both legs:

Over$192.9844.5¢+$21.69

Under$86.847.2¢+$6.12

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$130.97

Value

$163.92

PnL

+$32.95

Record

50%

27453-27352 (54805)

topdogbigboi

Under

Invested

$140.1

Value

$91.05

PnL

-$49.05

Record

47%

10701-12047 (22748)

Venusian<$100

Under

Invested

$83.14

Value

$85.85

PnL

+$2.71

Record

52%

1065-966 (2031)

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$100.1

Value

$74.77

PnL

+$1.29

Record

58%

44814-32606 (77420)

CannaeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$74.49

Value

$74.38

PnL

-$0.11

Record

53%

16428-14604 (31032)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$17.1

Value

$62.4

PnL

+$45.3

Record

53%

1052-943 (1995)

poshposh<$100

Under

Invested

$55.33

Value

$32.12

PnL

-$23.21

Record

57%

12000-9088 (21088)

berlinskies<$100

Under

Invested

$18.55

Value

$17.93

PnL

-$0.62

Record

58%

6349-4583 (10932)

Multicoloured-Serf<$100

Under

Invested

$9.25

Value

$10.66

PnL

+$1.19

Record

48%

281-309 (590)

sentrioCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$6.58

Value

$6.51

PnL

-$0.07

Record

50%

25302-25019 (50321)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.57

Value

$3.45

PnL

-$0.12

Record

51%

7432-7171 (14603)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.48

PnL

-$0.03

Record

50%

20309-20664 (40973)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 51%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 16 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

56% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Over) and the top 1000 (14 on Under) disagree here.

whaleUnder 60% · 5

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 50% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Under 64% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.