Will Middlesbrough FC win on 2026-11-04?

11 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold No (69%) · No at 66¢ · $20K held · ended Nov 4

Yes34¢No66¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 69%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$19.6K

Combined PnL

$954.33

Smart Money Entry

47.6¢ → 66¢

+39% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 66%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 16 top traders (69%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes34%

No66%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$9.9K

Total Shares18,204

Combined PnL+$1.0K

Yes5 traders

Total Value$3.8K

Total Shares6,380

Combined PnL-$45.75

No — 69%Yes — 31%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 49¢	$3.5K	$4.3K	+$869.81	51% 24233-22959 (47192)
RN1ARB<$100	Yesavg 53.3¢	$3.5K	$3.1K	-$483.13	53% 60065-52434 (112499)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 53.3¢	$2.3K	$1.6K	-$726.52
└ No leg	Noavg 53¢	$1.2K	$1.5K	+$243.39
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Yesavg 59.2¢	$2.7K	$2.6K	-$99.81	51% 1793-1714 (3507)
ME metski29	Noavg 47.9¢	$2.6K	$2.3K	-$261.91	45% 320-393 (713)
MA MadridTime	Noavg 45.7¢	$969.62	$1.3K	+$314.8	51% 1095-1048 (2143)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Noavg 42.6¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$35.64	40% 1343-2037 (3380)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 54.2¢	$572.81	$602.4	+$29.59
└ No leg	Noavg 42.6¢	$585.95	$591.99	+$6.04
GC GC-PARB<$100	Noavg 42.7¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$33.72	39% 1339-2113 (3452)
└ No leg	Noavg 42.7¢	$607.94	$611.66	+$3.72
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 54¢	$540	$570	+$30
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 42¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$26.47	50% 27770-27632 (55402)
CA CannaeCTR	Yesavg 53.6¢	$841.76	$879.11	+$37.35	53% 16518-14663 (31181)
VE Venusian	Noavg 52.9¢	$497.5	$569.14	+$71.64	52% 1162-1079 (2241)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Yesavg 47.3¢	$383.8	$335.09	-$48.71	48% 59324-63332 (122656)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 47.3¢	$317.3	$238.34	-$78.96
└ No leg	Noavg 44.3¢	$66.5	$96.75	+$30.25
0xheavy888CTR	Yesavg 56.5¢	$226	$228	+$2	56% 7724-6188 (13912)
DV dv-pm	Noavg 45¢	$162	$156.6	-$5.4	49% 3294-3423 (6717)
oieshfn345ARB<$100	Yesavg 41.4¢	$153.37	$153.98	+$0.6	58% 1993-1472 (3465)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 41.4¢	$80.74	$77.03	-$3.72
└ No leg	Noavg 57.1¢	$72.63	$76.95	+$4.32
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Noavg 70.4¢	$99.45	$84.08	-$15.37	49% 14327-15003 (29330)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Yesavg 53¢	$46.26	$49.75	+$3.49	51% 6278-6033 (12311)
AR ARocky33CTR<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$33.02	$44.25	+$11.23	76% 4413-1366 (5779)
CC ccllar<$100	Noavg 58.2¢	$20.37	$20.82	+$0.45	47% 514-589 (1103)
LI LightParadox<$100	Noavg 44.2¢	$7.08	$6.88	-$0.2	52% 1149-1045 (2194)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 43¢	$2.58	$2.52	-$0.06	50% 25488-25195 (50683)
PA pauleta23<$100	Noavg 46.2¢	$2.01	$1.87	-$0.14	66% 23991-12174 (36165)

Flaznorp

Invested

$3,464.51

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$869.81

Record

51%

24233-22959 (47192)

RN1ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$3,538.56

Value

$3.1K

PnL

-$483.13

Record

53%

60065-52434 (112499)

Both legs:

Yes$2,304.1353.3¢-$726.52

No$1,234.4353¢+$243.39

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Yes

Invested

$2,664.81

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$99.81

Record

51%

1793-1714 (3507)

metski29

Invested

$2,566.7

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$261.91

Record

45%

320-393 (713)

MadridTime

Invested

$969.62

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$314.8

Record

51%

1095-1048 (2143)

NM-PARB<$100

Invested

$1,158.75

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$35.64

Record

40%

1343-2037 (3380)

Both legs:

Yes$572.8154.2¢+$29.59

No$585.9542.6¢+$6.04

GC-PARB<$100

Invested

$1,147.94

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$33.72

Record

39%

1339-2113 (3452)

Both legs:

No$607.9442.7¢+$3.72

Yes$54054¢+$30

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$1,111.55

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$26.47

Record

50%

27770-27632 (55402)

CannaeCTR

Yes

Invested

$841.76

Value

$879.11

PnL

+$37.35

Record

53%

16518-14663 (31181)

Venusian

Invested

$497.5

Value

$569.14

PnL

+$71.64

Record

52%

1162-1079 (2241)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$383.8

Value

$335.09

PnL

-$48.71

Record

48%

59324-63332 (122656)

Both legs:

Yes$317.347.3¢-$78.96

No$66.544.3¢+$30.25

0xheavy888CTR

Yes

Invested

$226

Value

$228

PnL

+$2

Record

56%

7724-6188 (13912)

dv-pm

Invested

$162

Value

$156.6

PnL

-$5.4

Record

49%

3294-3423 (6717)

oieshfn345ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$153.37

Value

$153.98

PnL

+$0.6

Record

58%

1993-1472 (3465)

Both legs:

Yes$80.7441.4¢-$3.72

No$72.6357.1¢+$4.32

LuckyLoo<$100

Invested

$99.45

Value

$84.08

PnL

-$15.37

Record

49%

14327-15003 (29330)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$46.26

Value

$49.75

PnL

+$3.49

Record

51%

6278-6033 (12311)

ARocky33CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$33.02

Value

$44.25

PnL

+$11.23

Record

76%

4413-1366 (5779)

ccllar<$100

Invested

$20.37

Value

$20.82

PnL

+$0.45

Record

47%

514-589 (1103)

LightParadox<$100

Invested

$7.08

Value

$6.88

PnL

-$0.2

Record

52%

1149-1045 (2194)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$2.58

Value

$2.52

PnL

-$0.06

Record

50%

25488-25195 (50683)

pauleta23<$100

Invested

$2.01

Value

$1.87

PnL

-$0.14

Record

66%

23991-12174 (36165)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 66%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 16 top traders (69%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance68.1%

66.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$46.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

146.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.