Manchester United FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 3.5

16 of 37 top Polymarket traders hold Over (43%) · Over at 94¢ · $211K held · ended Nov 8

Over94¢Under6¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 43%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$211.0K

Combined PnL

$36.2K

Smart Money Entry

55¢ → 93.5¢

+70% since entry · 16 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

16 of 37 top traders (43%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed21 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over94%

Under7%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over16 traders

Total Value$173.9K

Total Shares234,716

Combined PnL+$42.4K

Under21 traders

Total Value$34.7K

Total Shares123,106

Combined PnL$-6.2K

Over — 43%Under — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x492442EaB586F242B53bDa933fD5dE859c8A3782-1766317541188	Overavg 39.5¢	$47.7K	$76.6K	+$29.0K	48% 291-314 (605)
TH thetesterguy	Overavg 95¢	$55.2K	$54.9K	-$290.37	89% 90-11 (101)
FE ferrariChampions2026	Overavg 42.9¢	$16.4K	$31.3K	+$15.0K	42% 8192-11384 (19576)
1L 1l2ihj34li12u34CTR	Underavg 57¢	$22.2K	$21.2K	-$974.44	47% 206-230 (436)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Underavg 30.3¢	$6.3K	$5.9K	-$356.35	50% 29172-29037 (58209)
CORGII	Overavg 46.1¢	$5.7K	$5.6K	-$78.54	41% 418-597 (1015)
RN1CTR	Underavg 38.8¢	$4.6K	$2.7K	$-1.9K	53% 63014-55227 (118241)
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 83.5¢	$4.0K	$2.7K	$-1.4K	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
CUTJALENHURTSCTR	Underavg 5¢	$1.3K	$1.6K	+$375	52% 6414-6029 (12443)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Underavg 54.3¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$59.62	64% 10183-5729 (15912)
└ Under leg	Underavg 54.3¢	$733.52	$749.38	+$15.87
└ Over leg	Overavg 41.3¢	$557	$600.75	+$43.75
GC GC-PARB<$100	Underavg 55.8¢	$973.26	$997.67	+$24.41	64% 10184-5783 (15967)
└ Under leg	Underavg 55.8¢	$557.19	$543.73	-$13.47
└ Over leg	Overavg 41.7¢	$416.07	$453.94	+$37.87
FaroeseNationalistCTR	Underavg 58¢	$901.9	$894.12	-$7.78	49% 577-595 (1172)
AnjunCTR	Underavg 5.2¢	$843.73	$886.02	+$42.29	55% 5255-4341 (9596)
38 38791873984189	Overavg 82.8¢	$1.4K	$738.13	-$149.47	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
nigiri99	Overavg 41.6¢	$293.09	$465.3	+$172.21	46% 8770-10464 (19234)
VeryLucky888	Overavg 42.9¢	$231.51	$415.15	+$226.55	58% 47904-34520 (82424)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Underavg 5.6¢	$400.63	$391.38	-$9.25	48% 1776-1912 (3688)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Overavg 88.9¢	$469.96	$357.41	-$112.55	58% 3248-2345 (5593)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Underavg 6.1¢	$278.63	$296.33	+$17.7	49% 1800-1902 (3702)
AN Anon455CTR	Underavg 26.8¢	$302.3	$281.04	-$21.26	55% 3814-3145 (6959)
PL plustiCTR	Underavg 56.9¢	$2.0K	$228.5	$-1.8K	— 15-1 (16)
SH shiifoo	Overavg 87¢	$202.25	$220.97	+$18.72	47% 4175-4797 (8972)
dips.	Overavg 88¢	$211.4	$214.74	+$3.33	47% 11040-12658 (23698)
KY Kyn008CTR	Underavg 54¢	$1.7K	$170.32	$-1.5K	49% 299-312 (611)
CI cigarettes	Overavg 94¢	$140.99	$140.24	-$0.75	50% 59994-58808 (118802)

0x492442EaB586F242B53bDa933fD5dE859c8A3782-1766317541188

Over

Invested

$47,658.11

Value

$76.6K

PnL

+$29.0K

Record

48%

291-314 (605)

thetesterguy

Over

Invested

$55,169.4

Value

$54.9K

PnL

-$290.37

Record

89%

90-11 (101)

ferrariChampions2026

Over

Invested

$16,356.98

Value

$31.3K

PnL

+$15.0K

Record

42%

8192-11384 (19576)

1l2ihj34li12u34CTR

Under

Invested

$22,217.34

Value

$21.2K

PnL

-$974.44

Record

47%

206-230 (436)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Under

Invested

$6,282.62

Value

$5.9K

PnL

-$356.35

Record

50%

29172-29037 (58209)

CORGII

Over

Invested

$5,690.87

Value

$5.6K

PnL

-$78.54

Record

41%

418-597 (1015)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$4,551.12

Value

$2.7K

PnL

$-1.9K

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$4,008.79

Value

$2.7K

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

CUTJALENHURTSCTR

Under

Invested

$1,250

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$375

Record

52%

6414-6029 (12443)

NM-PARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,290.52

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$59.62

Record

64%

10183-5729 (15912)

Both legs:

Under$733.5254.3¢+$15.87

Over$55741.3¢+$43.75

GC-PARB<$100

Under

Invested

$973.26

Value

$997.67

PnL

+$24.41

Record

64%

10184-5783 (15967)

Both legs:

Under$557.1955.8¢-$13.47

Over$416.0741.7¢+$37.87

FaroeseNationalistCTR

Under

Invested

$901.9

Value

$894.12

PnL

-$7.78

Record

49%

577-595 (1172)

AnjunCTR

Under

Invested

$843.73

Value

$886.02

PnL

+$42.29

Record

55%

5255-4341 (9596)

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$1,449.58

Value

$738.13

PnL

-$149.47

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

nigiri99

Over

Invested

$293.09

Value

$465.3

PnL

+$172.21

Record

46%

8770-10464 (19234)

VeryLucky888

Over

Invested

$231.51

Value

$415.15

PnL

+$226.55

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

MadridTimeCTR

Under

Invested

$400.63

Value

$391.38

PnL

-$9.25

Record

48%

1776-1912 (3688)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Over

Invested

$469.96

Value

$357.41

PnL

-$112.55

Record

58%

3248-2345 (5593)

LightParadoxCTR

Under

Invested

$278.63

Value

$296.33

PnL

+$17.7

Record

49%

1800-1902 (3702)

Anon455CTR

Under

Invested

$302.3

Value

$281.04

PnL

-$21.26

Record

55%

3814-3145 (6959)

plustiCTR

Under

Invested

$2,000

Value

$228.5

PnL

$-1.8K

Record

—

15-1 (16)

shiifoo

Over

Invested

$202.25

Value

$220.97

PnL

+$18.72

Record

47%

4175-4797 (8972)

dips.

Over

Invested

$211.4

Value

$214.74

PnL

+$3.33

Record

47%

11040-12658 (23698)

Kyn008CTR

Under

Invested

$1,672.22

Value

$170.32

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

49%

299-312 (611)

cigarettes

Over

Invested

$140.99

Value

$140.24

PnL

-$0.75

Record

50%

59994-58808 (118802)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 94%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

16 of 37 top traders (43%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed21 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.8%

93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.