Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (50%). 0 of 15 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Nottingham Forest FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 4.5

5 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Under (33%) · Under at 50¢ · $83K held · ended Nov 7

Over50¢Under50¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 33%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$82.7K

Combined PnL

-$466.47

Smart Money Entry

62.5¢ → 50¢

-20% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 50%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 15 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Over 50%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over50%

Under50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$40.6K

Total Shares74,791

Combined PnL$-7.8K

Over10 traders

Total Value$22.5K

Total Shares41,758

Combined PnL+$7.3K

Under — 33%Over — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 56.8¢	$31.3K	$29.3K	$-2.0K	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
CH chongchong37	Overavg 41.1¢	$13.8K	$16.5K	+$2.7K	52% 148-139 (287)
DA dashattacker	Underavg 74.6¢	$15.9K	$10.6K	$-5.2K	73% 3120-1177 (4297)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Underavg 55.7¢	$9.3K	$9.5K	+$174.05	50% 29172-29037 (58209)
└ Under leg	Underavg 55.7¢	$6.1K	$5.5K	-$622.96
└ Over leg	Overavg 40.2¢	$3.3K	$4.1K	+$797.01
RN1ARB<$100	Underavg 57.7¢	$10.1K	$9.1K	$-1.0K	53% 63014-55227 (118241)
└ Under leg	Underavg 57.7¢	$6.9K	$6.0K	-$922.83
└ Over leg	Overavg 51.8¢	$3.2K	$3.1K	-$112.21
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Overavg 2.6¢	$168.82	$3.3K	+$3.1K	58% 3248-2345 (5593)
dips.	Overavg 2.6¢	$59.63	$1.0K	+$960.19	47% 11040-12658 (23698)
MA MadridTimeARB<$100	Underavg 46¢	$189.64	$608.12	+$418.48	48% 1776-1912 (3688)
└ Over leg	Overavg 2.6¢	$22.1	$426.01	+$403.91
└ Under leg	Underavg 46¢	$167.54	$182.11	+$14.57
38 38791873984189	Overavg 34.5¢	$823.19	$596.85	+$119.11	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
AN Anon455	Overavg 27.5¢	$328.94	$574.25	+$245.31	55% 3814-3145 (6959)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Underavg 99.9¢	$999.9	$500.5	-$499.4	33% 20011-40834 (60845)
VE VenusianARB<$100	Underavg 49.6¢	$102.9	$300.5	+$197.6	49% 1844-1936 (3780)
└ Over leg	Overavg 3.1¢	$13	$209.94	+$196.94
└ Under leg	Underavg 49.6¢	$89.9	$90.56	+$0.66
OM omnibus-076daa	Overavg 56¢	$227.63	$201.43	-$26.2	50% 21821-22062 (43883)
LU LuckyLooARB<$100	Underavg 44.3¢	$73.77	$165.89	+$92.12	49% 15008-15929 (30937)
└ Over leg	Overavg 14.2¢	$34.53	$121.6	+$87.08
└ Under leg	Underavg 44.3¢	$39.24	$44.28	+$5.04
LI Limousin	Overavg 5.9¢	$14.92	$125.95	+$111.03	50% 1850-1866 (3716)
RA rabbitfoot1	Underavg 68¢	$143.15	$105.26	-$37.89	54% 1244-1053 (2297)
LI LightParadox	Overavg 8.4¢	$17.15	$102.5	+$85.35	49% 1800-1902 (3702)
PA Pan9X	Overavg 34.4¢	$166.97	$57.96	+$18.08	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
tradecraft<$100	Overavg 5.4¢	$7.37	$48.42	+$41.05	51% 6523-6284 (12807)
MI MinevaJ<$100	Underavg 45¢	$57.31	$29.5	+$1.75	56% 1161-902 (2063)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$31,344.67

Value

$29.3K

PnL

$-2.0K

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

chongchong37

Over

Invested

$13,784.85

Value

$16.5K

PnL

+$2.7K

Record

52%

148-139 (287)

dashattacker

Under

Invested

$15,886.79

Value

$10.6K

PnL

$-5.2K

Record

73%

3120-1177 (4297)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Under

Invested

$9,339.55

Value

$9.5K

PnL

+$174.05

Record

50%

29172-29037 (58209)

Both legs:

Under$6,078.0655.7¢-$622.96

Over$3,261.4840.2¢+$797.01

RN1ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$10,096.28

Value

$9.1K

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

Both legs:

Under$6,900.0657.7¢-$922.83

Over$3,196.2251.8¢-$112.21

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Over

Invested

$168.82

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$3.1K

Record

58%

3248-2345 (5593)

dips.

Over

Invested

$59.63

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$960.19

Record

47%

11040-12658 (23698)

MadridTimeARB<$100

Under

Invested

$189.64

Value

$608.12

PnL

+$418.48

Record

48%

1776-1912 (3688)

Both legs:

Over$22.12.6¢+$403.91

Under$167.5446¢+$14.57

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$823.19

Value

$596.85

PnL

+$119.11

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

Anon455

Over

Invested

$328.94

Value

$574.25

PnL

+$245.31

Record

55%

3814-3145 (6959)

xtxpleasecallme

Under

Invested

$999.9

Value

$500.5

PnL

-$499.4

Record

33%

20011-40834 (60845)

VenusianARB<$100

Under

Invested

$102.9

Value

$300.5

PnL

+$197.6

Record

49%

1844-1936 (3780)

Both legs:

Over$133.1¢+$196.94

Under$89.949.6¢+$0.66

omnibus-076daa

Over

Invested

$227.63

Value

$201.43

PnL

-$26.2

Record

50%

21821-22062 (43883)

LuckyLooARB<$100

Under

Invested

$73.77

Value

$165.89

PnL

+$92.12

Record

49%

15008-15929 (30937)

Both legs:

Over$34.5314.2¢+$87.08

Under$39.2444.3¢+$5.04

Limousin

Over

Invested

$14.92

Value

$125.95

PnL

+$111.03

Record

50%

1850-1866 (3716)

rabbitfoot1

Under

Invested

$143.15

Value

$105.26

PnL

-$37.89

Record

54%

1244-1053 (2297)

LightParadox

Over

Invested

$17.15

Value

$102.5

PnL

+$85.35

Record

49%

1800-1902 (3702)

Pan9X

Over

Invested

$166.97

Value

$57.96

PnL

+$18.08

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

tradecraft<$100

Over

Invested

$7.37

Value

$48.42

PnL

+$41.05

Record

51%

6523-6284 (12807)

MinevaJ<$100

Under

Invested

$57.31

Value

$29.5

PnL

+$1.75

Record

56%

1161-902 (2063)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 50%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 15 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Over 50%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.2%

50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$91.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

191.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.