Will PSV win on 2026-11-08?

13 of 22 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (59%) · Yes at 98¢ · $12K held · ended Nov 8

Yes98¢No2¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 59%

Total Value

$11.5K

Combined PnL

$-1.3K

Smart Money Entry

87.8¢ → 97.6¢

+11% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

13 of 22 top traders (59%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes98%

No2%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes13 traders

Total Value$11.2K

Total Shares10,976

Combined PnL+$29.77

No9 traders

Total Value$385.76

Total Shares11,347

Combined PnL$-1.3K

Yes — 59%No — 41%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Yesavg 89¢	$4.7K	$5.1K	-$374.84	51% 46870-44196 (91066)
PA Paul973973	Yesavg 96.6¢	$1.6K	$1.5K	+$29.97	89% 1104-142 (1246)
RN1	Yesavg 84.9¢	$1.2K	$1.4K	+$189.62	53% 70164-61737 (131901)
SN SnakeBall	Yesavg 94.7¢	$967.71	$901.11	-$66.6	50% 48537-48152 (96689)
DA darkumbreon88	Yesavg 70¢	$574.47	$564.71	-$14.36	65% 2130-1169 (3299)
GC GC-P	Yesavg 69¢	$410.23	$403.25	+$117.02	57% 22219-16567 (38786)
VeryLucky888	Yesavg 70¢	$255.29	$361.05	+$105.76	59% 52299-37045 (89344)
CI cigarettes	Yesavg 95¢	$300	$294.9	+$9.9	50% 65438-65762 (131200)
dips.	Yesavg 96¢	$205.48	$210.27	+$4.79	46% 12026-13917 (25943)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Noavg 13.2¢	$436.89	$194.64	-$242.25	48% 2032-2230 (4262)
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107	Yesavg 96¢	$160	$157.2	+$3.6	49% 2854-2949 (5803)
38 38791873984189	Yesavg 76.3¢	$113.82	$115.19	+$1.38	48% 70219-75923 (146142)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Noavg 23.7¢	$4.4K	$74.01	-$959.38	50% 32540-32687 (65227)
WA WagerWizard<$100	Yesavg 83.8¢	$43.6	$42.84	+$6.28	71% 18400-7571 (25971)
GA GaditimaCTR<$100	Noavg 3¢	$60	$42	-$18	47% 8606-9734 (18340)
PA Pan9X	Yesavg 84.9¢	$258.27	$36.6	+$17.25	52% 27099-24604 (51703)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 30.1¢	$31.32	$31.7	+$9.76	51% 27916-27361 (55277)
VE VenusianCTR	Noavg 7.2¢	$1.5K	$25.94	-$84.76	48% 2079-2257 (4336)
NM NM-PCTR	Noavg 30.8¢	$568.05	$8.24	+$9.04	57% 22329-16593 (38922)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Noavg 16.2¢	$49.57	$5.35	-$44.21	49% 2102-2190 (4292)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Noavg 22.3¢	$1.77	$3.53	+$1.76	48% 2039-2213 (4252)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Noavg 13.5¢	$20	$0.35	-$2.35	52% 6029-5557 (11586)

Flaznorp

Yes

Invested

$4,723.29

Value

$5.1K

PnL

-$374.84

Record

51%

46870-44196 (91066)

Paul973973

Yes

Invested

$1,552.48

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$29.97

Record

89%

1104-142 (1246)

RN1

Yes

Invested

$1,243.93

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$189.62

Record

53%

70164-61737 (131901)

SnakeBall

Yes

Invested

$967.71

Value

$901.11

PnL

-$66.6

Record

50%

48537-48152 (96689)

darkumbreon88

Yes

Invested

$574.47

Value

$564.71

PnL

-$14.36

Record

65%

2130-1169 (3299)

GC-P

Yes

Invested

$410.23

Value

$403.25

PnL

+$117.02

Record

57%

22219-16567 (38786)

VeryLucky888

Yes

Invested

$255.29

Value

$361.05

PnL

+$105.76

Record

59%

52299-37045 (89344)

cigarettes

Yes

Invested

$300

Value

$294.9

PnL

+$9.9

Record

50%

65438-65762 (131200)

dips.

Yes

Invested

$205.48

Value

$210.27

PnL

+$4.79

Record

46%

12026-13917 (25943)

MadridTimeCTR

Invested

$436.89

Value

$194.64

PnL

-$242.25

Record

48%

2032-2230 (4262)

0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107

Yes

Invested

$160

Value

$157.2

PnL

+$3.6

Record

49%

2854-2949 (5803)

38791873984189

Yes

Invested

$113.82

Value

$115.19

PnL

+$1.38

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Invested

$4,353.28

Value

$74.01

PnL

-$959.38

Record

50%

32540-32687 (65227)

WagerWizard<$100

Yes

Invested

$43.6

Value

$42.84

PnL

+$6.28

Record

71%

18400-7571 (25971)

GaditimaCTR<$100

Invested

$60

Value

$42

PnL

-$18

Record

47%

8606-9734 (18340)

Pan9X

Yes

Invested

$258.27

Value

$36.6

PnL

+$17.25

Record

52%

27099-24604 (51703)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$31.32

Value

$31.7

PnL

+$9.76

Record

51%

27916-27361 (55277)

VenusianCTR

Invested

$1,526.17

Value

$25.94

PnL

-$84.76

Record

48%

2079-2257 (4336)

NM-PCTR

Invested

$568.05

Value

$8.24

PnL

+$9.04

Record

57%

22329-16593 (38922)

LimousinCTR<$100

Invested

$49.57

Value

$5.35

PnL

-$44.21

Record

49%

2102-2190 (4292)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Invested

$1.77

Value

$3.53

PnL

+$1.76

Record

48%

2039-2213 (4252)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Invested

$20

Value

$0.35

PnL

-$2.35

Record

52%

6029-5557 (11586)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

13 of 22 top traders (59%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.7%

97.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.