Will Angers SCO win on 2026-10-31?

10 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 100¢ · $37K held · ended Nov 1

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$37.4K

Combined PnL

$53.45

Smart Money Entry

96.4¢ → 100¢

+4% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 15 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$35.4K

Total Shares36,390

Combined PnL+$56.06

Yes5 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares12,341

Combined PnL-$2.61

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MO Momo63	Noavg 98.8¢	$22.9K	$22.9K	-$37.89	93% 879-63 (942)
RN1	Noavg 93.7¢	$5.1K	$5.4K	+$268.16	54% 57170-49418 (106588)
XW xwingboy	Noavg 89¢	$5.0K	$4.9K	-$140.45	64% 301-169 (470)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 11.2¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$34.07	50% 25666-25500 (51166)
LI Lilybaeum	Noavg 97.7¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$11.76	61% 13793-8671 (22464)
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 97.4¢	$465.5	$434.67	-$30.83	59% 46920-33177 (80097)
CA CannaeARB<$100	Noavg 88¢	$380.33	$389.8	+$9.47	53% 16119-14285 (30404)
└ No leg	Noavg 88¢	$315.04	$309.67	-$5.37
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 11¢	$65.29	$80.13	+$14.84
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Noavg 97¢	$482.07	$363.71	-$118.36	50% 33863-33445 (67308)
└ No leg	Noavg 97¢	$246.66	$252.64	+$5.98
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 1.4¢	$235.41	$111.07	-$124.34
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Noavg 92.1¢	$344.6	$350.82	+$6.22	52% 13930-12706 (26636)
SH SharkVision	Noavg 89¢	$100.09	$104.26	+$4.17	71% 1382-572 (1954)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 88¢	$51.04	$57.62	+$6.58	57% 29237-21622 (50859)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 99¢	$27.02	$18.62	-$8.4	53% 5642-5057 (10699)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.5¢	$53.38	$15.98	-$37.4	49% 13022-13588 (26610)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Yesavg 11¢	$10.77	$11.26	+$0.49	50% 11182-10991 (22173)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Noavg 93¢	$9.68	$9.94	+$0.26	48% 8966-9599 (18565)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100	Yesavg 11¢	$5.49	$5.74	+$0.25	72% 6831-2625 (9456)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$1.06	$1.04	-$0.02	50% 19451-19817 (39268)

Momo63

Invested

$22,926.95

Value

$22.9K

PnL

-$37.89

Record

93%

879-63 (942)

RN1

Invested

$5,106.68

Value

$5.4K

PnL

+$268.16

Record

54%

57170-49418 (106588)

xwingboy

Invested

$5,000

Value

$4.9K

PnL

-$140.45

Record

64%

301-169 (470)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,227.47

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$34.07

Record

50%

25666-25500 (51166)

Lilybaeum

Invested

$1,271.58

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$11.76

Record

61%

13793-8671 (22464)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$465.5

Value

$434.67

PnL

-$30.83

Record

59%

46920-33177 (80097)

CannaeARB<$100

Invested

$380.33

Value

$389.8

PnL

+$9.47

Record

53%

16119-14285 (30404)

Both legs:

No$315.0488¢-$5.37

Yes$65.2911¢+$14.84

SnakeBallARB<$100

Invested

$482.07

Value

$363.71

PnL

-$118.36

Record

50%

33863-33445 (67308)

Both legs:

No$246.6697¢+$5.98

Yes$235.411.4¢-$124.34

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Invested

$344.6

Value

$350.82

PnL

+$6.22

Record

52%

13930-12706 (26636)

SharkVision

Invested

$100.09

Value

$104.26

PnL

+$4.17

Record

71%

1382-572 (1954)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$51.04

Value

$57.62

PnL

+$6.58

Record

57%

29237-21622 (50859)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$27.02

Value

$18.62

PnL

-$8.4

Record

53%

5642-5057 (10699)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$53.38

Value

$15.98

PnL

-$37.4

Record

49%

13022-13588 (26610)

fooooolCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.77

Value

$11.26

PnL

+$0.49

Record

50%

11182-10991 (22173)

topdogbigboi<$100

Invested

$9.68

Value

$9.94

PnL

+$0.26

Record

48%

8966-9599 (18565)

AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.49

Value

$5.74

PnL

+$0.25

Record

72%

6831-2625 (9456)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.06

Value

$1.04

PnL

-$0.02

Record

50%

19451-19817 (39268)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

10 of 15 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.