Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-11-08?

11 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold No (65%) · No at 69¢ · $23K held · ended Nov 8

Yes32¢No68¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 65%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$23.0K

Combined PnL

-$391.33

Smart Money Entry

67.7¢ → 68.5¢

+1% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 69%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 17 top traders (65%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes32%

No69%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$15.4K

Total Shares22,205

Combined PnL-$543.61

Yes6 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares7,739

Combined PnL+$152.28

No — 65%Yes — 35%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 67.5¢	$7.3K	$6.8K	-$437.69	51% 47136-44473 (91609)
XW xwingboy	Noavg 70¢	$4.6K	$4.5K	-$98.24	66% 368-190 (558)
GC GC-PARB<$100	Noavg 67.2¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	-$80.8	57% 22226-16583 (38809)
└ No leg	Noavg 67.2¢	$1.5K	$1.1K	-$345.42
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 30.9¢	$463.33	$727.95	+$264.62
NM NM-PARB<$100	Noavg 66.9¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$43.84	57% 22335-16609 (38944)
└ No leg	Noavg 66.9¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$44.73
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 30.6¢	$377.77	$376.88	-$0.89
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 62.8¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$112.44	50% 32547-32694 (65241)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Yesavg 30¢	$712.53	$1.3K	+$546.27	46% 30568-35672 (66240)
AN Anon455	Noavg 68.6¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$15.69	54% 3933-3292 (7225)
DA darkumbreon88CTR	Yesavg 31.5¢	$964.15	$918.24	-$45.91	64% 2142-1184 (3326)
RN1CTR	Yesavg 52¢	$1.0K	$660.52	-$366.52	53% 70182-61748 (131930)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080ARB<$100	Yesavg 31¢	$582	$583	+$1	50% 2205-2180 (4385)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 31¢	$310	$305	-$5
└ No leg	Noavg 68¢	$272	$278	+$6
LI LightParadox	Noavg 68.1¢	$24.68	$523.2	+$12.63	48% 2081-2289 (4370)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 69¢	$669.9	$470.87	-$199.03	50% 48547-48163 (96710)
38 38791873984189	Noavg 57.1¢	$227.07	$229.45	+$44.42	48% 70249-75962 (146211)
PA Pan9XARB<$100	Noavg 56.3¢	$354.33	$228.59	+$67.83	52% 27203-24713 (51916)
└ No leg	Noavg 56.3¢	$136.24	$158.5	+$61.02
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 31.1¢	$63.28	$70.09	+$6.81
PT PT-S7	Noavg 62.3¢	$340.12	$215.08	+$18.09	46% 3487-4033 (7520)
MA MadridTimeARB<$100	Noavg 58.1¢	$174.91	$202.92	+$28.01	47% 2072-2311 (4383)
└ No leg	Noavg 58.1¢	$123.8	$145.91	+$22.11
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 28.2¢	$51.11	$57.02	+$5.91
VE VenusianCTR	Yesavg 28.1¢	$100.6	$111.94	+$11.33	48% 2117-2339 (4456)
OM omnibus-076daa	Noavg 66¢	$105.89	$109.9	+$4.01	50% 23449-23463 (46912)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Noavg 53.7¢	$76.28	$87.73	+$11.45	53% 15485-13736 (29221)
└ No leg	Noavg 53.7¢	$45.8	$59.32	+$13.51
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 32.7¢	$30.47	$28.41	-$2.07
GA Gaditima<$100	Noavg 52¢	$52	$68.5	+$16.5	47% 8628-9767 (18395)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$32.79	$34.82	+$2.03	49% 2142-2260 (4402)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Noavg 71¢	$29.82	$28.77	-$1.05	56% 39453-31101 (70554)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100	Yesavg 30¢	$7.8	$12.87	+$5.07	41% 3599-5108 (8707)

Flaznorp

Invested

$7,279.09

Value

$6.8K

PnL

-$437.69

Record

51%

47136-44473 (91609)

xwingboy

Invested

$4,585

Value

$4.5K

PnL

-$98.24

Record

66%

368-190 (558)

GC-PARB<$100

Invested

$1,944.66

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$80.8

Record

57%

22226-16583 (38809)

Both legs:

No$1,481.3367.2¢-$345.42

Yes$463.3330.9¢+$264.62

NM-PARB<$100

Invested

$1,531.16

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$43.84

Record

57%

22335-16609 (38944)

Both legs:

No$1,153.3966.9¢+$44.73

Yes$377.7730.6¢-$0.89

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$1,236.72

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$112.44

Record

50%

32547-32694 (65241)

LuckyLooCTR

Yes

Invested

$712.53

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$546.27

Record

46%

30568-35672 (66240)

Anon455

Invested

$1,130.24

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$15.69

Record

54%

3933-3292 (7225)

darkumbreon88CTR

Yes

Invested

$964.15

Value

$918.24

PnL

-$45.91

Record

64%

2142-1184 (3326)

RN1CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,027.04

Value

$660.52

PnL

-$366.52

Record

53%

70182-61748 (131930)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$582

Value

$583

PnL

+$1

Record

50%

2205-2180 (4385)

Both legs:

Yes$31031¢-$5

No$27268¢+$6

LightParadox

Invested

$24.68

Value

$523.2

PnL

+$12.63

Record

48%

2081-2289 (4370)

SnakeBall

Invested

$669.9

Value

$470.87

PnL

-$199.03

Record

50%

48547-48163 (96710)

38791873984189

Invested

$227.07

Value

$229.45

PnL

+$44.42

Record

48%

70249-75962 (146211)

Pan9XARB<$100

Invested

$354.33

Value

$228.59

PnL

+$67.83

Record

52%

27203-24713 (51916)

Both legs:

No$136.2456.3¢+$61.02

Yes$63.2831.1¢+$6.81

PT-S7

Invested

$340.12

Value

$215.08

PnL

+$18.09

Record

46%

3487-4033 (7520)

MadridTimeARB<$100

Invested

$174.91

Value

$202.92

PnL

+$28.01

Record

47%

2072-2311 (4383)

Both legs:

Invested

$100.6

Value

$111.94

PnL

+$11.33

Record

48%

2117-2339 (4456)

omnibus-076daa

Invested

$105.89

Value

$109.9

PnL

+$4.01

Record

50%

23449-23463 (46912)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Invested

$76.28

Value

$87.73

PnL

+$11.45

Record

53%

15485-13736 (29221)

Both legs:

No$45.853.7¢+$13.51

Yes$30.4732.7¢-$2.07

Gaditima<$100

Invested

$52

Value

$68.5

PnL

+$16.5

Record

47%

8628-9767 (18395)

LimousinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$32.79

Value

$34.82

PnL

+$2.03

Record

49%

2142-2260 (4402)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Invested

$29.82

Value

$28.77

PnL

-$1.05

Record

56%

39453-31101 (70554)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.8

Value

$12.87

PnL

+$5.07

Record

41%

3599-5108 (8707)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 69%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 17 top traders (65%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.6%

68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$41.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

141.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.