Will Stade Brestois 29 win on 2026-11-08?

9 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (45%) · Yes at 65¢ · $22K held · ended Nov 8

Yes65¢No35¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 45%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$21.8K

Combined PnL

$522.02

Smart Money Entry

48.8¢ → 64.5¢

+32% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 65%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 20 top traders (45%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes65%

No36%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes9 traders

Total Value$15.2K

Total Shares24,845

Combined PnL+$1.3K

No11 traders

Total Value$6.1K

Total Shares12,583

Combined PnL-$794.2

Yes — 45%No — 55%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Yesavg 54.5¢	$8.3K	$8.9K	+$649.87	51% 46870-44196 (91066)
RN1CTR	Noavg 44.7¢	$4.4K	$3.7K	-$677.46	53% 70164-61737 (131901)
LI LightParadox	Yesavg 52.4¢	$2.6K	$3.2K	+$608.98	48% 2039-2213 (4252)
MA MadridTime	Yesavg 35¢	$6.7K	$2.4K	-$61.52	48% 2032-2230 (4262)
AN Anon455CTR	Noavg 65¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$73.57	55% 3933-3280 (7213)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Noavg 49¢	$429.46	$367.16	-$62.3	48% 70219-75923 (146142)
└ No leg	Noavg 49¢	$296.52	$214.81	-$81.71
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 56.3¢	$132.94	$152.35	+$19.41
VE Venusian	Yesavg 52.2¢	$282.09	$348.84	+$66.75	48% 2079-2257 (4336)
GC GC-PCTR	Noavg 65¢	$338.48	$223.39	+$3.38	57% 22219-16567 (38786)
PA Pan9XCTR	Noavg 49.9¢	$369.33	$212.2	-$82.64	52% 27099-24604 (51703)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Noavg 42.9¢	$138.59	$159.72	+$21.13	53% 15441-13720 (29161)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 40.1¢	$57.63	$92.72	+$35.09
└ No leg	Noavg 42.9¢	$80.97	$67	-$13.96
AV averagejoetradersCTR	Noavg 71.5¢	$143.8	$132.71	-$11.1	56% 681-529 (1210)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR	Noavg 55.4¢	$200.07	$128.16	-$71.92	53% 3670-3275 (6945)
LI Limousin	Yesavg 56¢	$112.5	$126.73	+$14.23	49% 2102-2190 (4292)
OX oxe78sh4w98CTR	Noavg 74.4¢	$140.69	$124.88	-$15.81	54% 677-566 (1243)
NM NM-PCTR	Noavg 65¢	$109.29	$110.12	+$0.83	57% 22329-16593 (38922)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Yesavg 35¢	$35.78	$63.49	+$27.7	50% 48537-48152 (96689)
LU LuckyLoo	Yesavg 35¢	$130.77	$43.81	-$1.96	46% 30563-35669 (66232)
GA Gaditima<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$30.92	$37.72	+$6.8	47% 8606-9734 (18340)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 60¢	$30	$17.25	-$12.75	50% 65438-65762 (131200)
PA pauleta23<$100	Yesavg 42¢	$10	$15.36	+$5.36	65% 25410-13589 (38999)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 65¢	$5	$3.43	+$0.18	51% 27916-27361 (55277)
SH shiifooCTR<$100	Noavg 46.2¢	$2.95	$2.45	-$0.49	48% 5119-5648 (10767)

Flaznorp

Yes

Invested

$8,252.83

Value

$8.9K

PnL

+$649.87

Record

51%

46870-44196 (91066)

RN1CTR

Invested

$4,408.08

Value

$3.7K

PnL

-$677.46

Record

53%

70164-61737 (131901)

LightParadox

Yes

Invested

$2,626.14

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$608.98

Record

48%

2039-2213 (4252)

MadridTime

Yes

Invested

$6,672.23

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$61.52

Record

48%

2032-2230 (4262)

Anon455CTR

Invested

$1,366.3

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$73.57

Record

55%

3933-3280 (7213)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Invested

$429.46

Value

$367.16

PnL

-$62.3

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

Both legs:

No$296.5249¢-$81.71

Yes$132.9456.3¢+$19.41

Venusian

Yes

Invested

$282.09

Value

$348.84

PnL

+$66.75

Record

48%

2079-2257 (4336)

GC-PCTR

Invested

$338.48

Value

$223.39

PnL

+$3.38

Record

57%

22219-16567 (38786)

Pan9XCTR

Invested

$369.33

Value

$212.2

PnL

-$82.64

Record

52%

27099-24604 (51703)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Invested

$138.59

Value

$159.72

PnL

+$21.13

Record

53%

15441-13720 (29161)

Both legs:

Yes$57.6340.1¢+$35.09

No$80.9742.9¢-$13.96

averagejoetradersCTR

Invested

$143.8

Value

$132.71

PnL

-$11.1

Record

56%

681-529 (1210)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR

Invested

$200.07

Value

$128.16

PnL

-$71.92

Record

53%

3670-3275 (6945)

Limousin

Yes

Invested

$112.5

Value

$126.73

PnL

+$14.23

Record

49%

2102-2190 (4292)

oxe78sh4w98CTR

Invested

$140.69

Value

$124.88

PnL

-$15.81

Record

54%

677-566 (1243)

NM-PCTR

Invested

$109.29

Value

$110.12

PnL

+$0.83

Record

57%

22329-16593 (38922)

SnakeBall<$100

Yes

Invested

$35.78

Value

$63.49

PnL

+$27.7

Record

50%

48537-48152 (96689)

LuckyLoo

Yes

Invested

$130.77

Value

$43.81

PnL

-$1.96

Record

46%

30563-35669 (66232)

Gaditima<$100

Yes

Invested

$30.92

Value

$37.72

PnL

+$6.8

Record

47%

8606-9734 (18340)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$30

Value

$17.25

PnL

-$12.75

Record

50%

65438-65762 (131200)

pauleta23<$100

Yes

Invested

$10

Value

$15.36

PnL

+$5.36

Record

65%

25410-13589 (38999)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

Value

$3.43

PnL

+$0.18

Record

51%

27916-27361 (55277)

shiifooCTR<$100

Invested

$2.95

Value

$2.45

PnL

-$0.49

Record

48%

5119-5648 (10767)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 65%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 20 top traders (45%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.6%

64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$50.08

Max Loss

-$100.00

150.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.