Celtics vs. 76ers: O/U 217.5

15 of 26 top Polymarket traders hold Under (58%) · Under at 54¢ · $92K held · ended Nov 11

Over47¢Under53¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 58%

8 arb excluded

Total Value

$92.0K

Combined PnL

$-2.0K

Smart Money Entry

49.4¢ → 53.5¢

+8% since entry · 15 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

15 of 26 top traders (58%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over47%

Under54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under15 traders

Total Value$24.6K

Total Shares60,156

Combined PnL$-6.0K

Over11 traders

Total Value$30.9K

Total Shares52,955

Combined PnL+$4.0K

Under — 58%Over — 42%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Diverging

sniperOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 50% · 16

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 55% · 22

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Underavg 50¢	$30.7K	$30.6K	-$42.59	54% 1657-1434 (3091)
└ Under leg	Underavg 50¢	$18.4K	$18.4K	+$13.22
└ Over leg	Overavg 50.2¢	$12.3K	$12.3K	-$55.81
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 49.9¢	$16.0K	$12.6K	$-3.4K	57% 3074-2312 (5386)
TM TMingchanCTR	Overavg 50¢	$10.0K	$12.4K	+$2.4K	15% 6-35 (41)
IA ianf2026CTR	Overavg 50¢	$4.5K	$5.6K	+$1.1K	9% 8-79 (87)
SA Sassy-BucketCTR	Overavg 50¢	$5.8K	$5.4K	-$407.79	— 3-7 (10)
PP ppku6298CTR	Overavg 50¢	$4.2K	$5.2K	+$1.0K	0% 0-96 (96)
HI hi774c	Underavg 50¢	$4.8K	$3.6K	$-1.2K	8% 37-422 (459)
nehcnehc	Underavg 50¢	$4.7K	$3.6K	$-1.1K	19% 13-57 (70)
GC GC-PARB<$100	Overavg 50¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$44.97	16% 67-351 (418)
└ Over leg	Overavg 50¢	$942.55	$1.2K	+$226.21
└ Under leg	Underavg 48.9¢	$812.54	$631.29	-$181.24
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Overavg 56.3¢	$1.9K	$1.8K	-$180.44	56% 488-383 (871)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Overavg 50¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$46.83	60% 3444-2339 (5783)
└ Over leg	Overavg 50¢	$850	$1.1K	+$204
└ Under leg	Underavg 48.9¢	$705.44	$548.27	-$157.17
RN1	Underavg 45.2¢	$970.8	$1.1K	+$174.35	58% 3802-2784 (6586)
nigiri99	Underavg 49.9¢	$1.3K	$986.1	-$309.4	—
VeryLucky888	Underavg 49.1¢	$1.1K	$837.35	-$243.34	51% 300-292 (592)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Overavg 53.4¢	$750.21	$730.75	+$15.62	48% 949-1019 (1968)
└ Over leg	Overavg 53.4¢	$407.55	$438.47	+$28.64
└ Under leg	Underavg 44.4¢	$305.61	$292.29	-$13.02
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Underavg 53.3¢	$676.43	$659.29	-$17.14	51% 3172-3072 (6244)
└ Under leg	Underavg 53.3¢	$477.12	$496.68	+$19.56
└ Over leg	Overavg 54.5¢	$199.31	$162.61	-$36.69
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Underavg 49¢	$632.67	$614.18	-$18.49	48% 190-206 (396)
└ Over leg	Overavg 52¢	$296.4	$353.4	+$57
└ Under leg	Underavg 49¢	$336.27	$260.78	-$75.49
SE sentrio	Underavg 50.3¢	$797.12	$601.69	-$195.43	34% 233-457 (690)
VE Venusian	Underavg 39¢	$335.46	$460.18	+$124.72	28% 279-730 (1009)
BI biying88888	Underavg 37¢	$292.3	$422.65	+$130.35	27% 63-170 (233)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Underavg 54.1¢	$401.78	$364.07	-$37.7	50% 1504-1508 (3012)
└ Under leg	Underavg 54.1¢	$229.34	$220.55	-$8.78
└ Over leg	Overavg 57.7¢	$172.44	$143.52	-$28.92
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Overavg 50¢	$200	$248	+$48	10% 88-785 (873)
LI LightParadox	Underavg 46¢	$200.25	$232.9	+$32.65	28% 275-716 (991)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Overavg 49¢	$177.71	$221.13	+$43.42	28% 279-704 (983)
PA Pan9XARB<$100	Overavg 53¢	$141.43	$72.2	+$5.62	49% 444-470 (914)
└ Over leg	Overavg 53¢	$40.29	$43.73	+$5.75
└ Under leg	Underavg 47.1¢	$31.56	$28.47	-$0.13

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Under

Invested

$30,688.93

Value

$30.6K

PnL

-$42.59

Record

54%

1657-1434 (3091)

Both legs:

Under$18,381.2150¢+$13.22

Over$12,307.7250.2¢-$55.81

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$15,990.68

Value

$12.6K

PnL

$-3.4K

Record

57%

3074-2312 (5386)

TMingchanCTR

Over

Invested

$10,000

Value

$12.4K

PnL

+$2.4K

Record

15%

6-35 (41)

ianf2026CTR

Over

Invested

$4,482

Value

$5.6K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

8-79 (87)

Sassy-BucketCTR

Over

Invested

$5,825.64

Value

$5.4K

PnL

-$407.79

Record

—

3-7 (10)

ppku6298CTR

Over

Invested

$4,217.65

Value

$5.2K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

0-96 (96)

hi774c

Under

Invested

$4,796.71

Value

$3.6K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

37-422 (459)

nehcnehc

Under

Invested

$4,727.5

Value

$3.6K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

19%

13-57 (70)

GC-PARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,755.08

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$44.97

Record

16%

67-351 (418)

Both legs:

Over$942.5550¢+$226.21

Under$812.5448.9¢-$181.24

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Over

Invested

$1,939.41

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$180.44

Record

56%

488-383 (871)

NM-PARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,555.44

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$46.83

Record

60%

3444-2339 (5783)

Both legs:

Over$85050¢+$204

Under$705.4448.9¢-$157.17

RN1

Under

Invested

$970.8

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$174.35

Record

58%

3802-2784 (6586)

nigiri99

Under

Invested

$1,295.5

Value

$986.1

PnL

-$309.4

Record

—

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$1,117.44

Value

$837.35

PnL

-$243.34

Record

51%

300-292 (592)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$750.21

Value

$730.75

PnL

+$15.62

Record

48%

949-1019 (1968)

Both legs:

Over$407.5553.4¢+$28.64

Under$305.6144.4¢-$13.02

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$676.43

Value

$659.29

PnL

-$17.14

Record

51%

3172-3072 (6244)

Both legs:

Under$477.1253.3¢+$19.56

Over$199.3154.5¢-$36.69

SnakeBallARB<$100

Under

Invested

$632.67

Value

$614.18

PnL

-$18.49

Record

48%

190-206 (396)

Both legs:

Over$296.452¢+$57

Under$336.2749¢-$75.49

sentrio

Under

Invested

$797.12

Value

$601.69

PnL

-$195.43

Record

34%

233-457 (690)

Venusian

Under

Invested

$335.46

Value

$460.18

PnL

+$124.72

Record

28%

279-730 (1009)

biying88888

Under

Invested

$292.3

Value

$422.65

PnL

+$130.35

Record

27%

63-170 (233)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$401.78

Value

$364.07

PnL

-$37.7

Record

50%

1504-1508 (3012)

Both legs:

Under$229.3454.1¢-$8.78

Over$172.4457.7¢-$28.92

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Over

Invested

$200

Value

$248

PnL

+$48

Record

10%

88-785 (873)

LightParadox

Under

Invested

$200.25

Value

$232.9

PnL

+$32.65

Record

28%

275-716 (991)

MadridTimeCTR

Over

Invested

$177.71

Value

$221.13

PnL

+$43.42

Record

28%

279-704 (983)

Pan9XARB<$100

Over

Invested

$141.43

Value

$72.2

PnL

+$5.62

Record

49%

444-470 (914)

Both legs:

Over$40.2953¢+$5.75

Under$31.5647.1¢-$0.13

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

15 of 26 top traders (58%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Diverging

sniperOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 50% · 16

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 55% · 22

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.