Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (53%). 13 of 18 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Cavaliers vs. Hornets: O/U 215.5

13 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Under (72%) · Under at 48¢ · $48K held · ends Nov 10

Over53¢Under47¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 72%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$47.7K

Combined PnL

-$285.87

Smart Money Entry

48.6¢ → 47.5¢

-2% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 48%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

13 of 18 top traders (72%)Underdog side (market favors Over 53%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over53%

Under48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under13 traders

Total Value$24.6K

Total Shares51,122

Combined PnL-$313.31

Over5 traders

Total Value$14.8K

Total Shares28,963

Combined PnL+$27.45

Under — 72%Over — 28%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+27 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 70% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 67% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Underavg 49¢	$12.3K	$11.9K	-$376.76	30% 107-247 (354)
JO JoeyAroyyOO	Overavg 51¢	$11.6K	$11.5K	-$113.65	0% 0-42 (42)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Overavg 49.2¢	$5.3K	$5.5K	+$181.1	30% 29-67 (96)
└ Over leg	Overavg 49.2¢	$4.1K	$4.3K	+$193.18
└ Under leg	Underavg 50¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$12.07
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Underavg 47¢	$5.3K	$5.3K	+$56.06	3% 4-156 (160)
TM TMingchanCTR	Underavg 49¢	$3.7K	$3.7K	+$37.37	— 2-15 (17)
nigiri99	Overavg 50.2¢	$3.0K	$3.2K	+$140.66	42% 28-38 (66)
HI hi774cCTR	Underavg 50¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$0	3% 9-250 (259)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Underavg 49.5¢	$998.03	$999.58	+$1.55	6% 11-164 (175)
└ Under leg	Underavg 49.5¢	$619.25	$606.48	-$12.76
└ Over leg	Overavg 49.6¢	$378.78	$393.1	+$14.32
KA KasonWongCTR	Underavg 52¢	$1.0K	$990	-$50	— 0-9 (9)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 47.1¢	$960	$950	+$10.39	48% 61-65 (126)
GC GC-PARB<$100	Underavg 49¢	$595.18	$601.66	+$0.31	5% 11-190 (201)
└ Under leg	Underavg 49¢	$447.08	$442.76	-$4.32
└ Over leg	Overavg 48¢	$148.1	$158.9	+$4.63
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Overavg 51¢	$505	$500	-$5	47% 82-92 (174)
└ Over leg	Overavg 51¢	$255	$252.5	-$2.5
└ Under leg	Underavg 50¢	$250	$247.5	-$2.5
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Underavg 48.7¢	$473.97	$418.95	-$0.96	49% 388-405 (793)
└ Under leg	Underavg 48.7¢	$245.49	$239.4	-$6.09
└ Over leg	Overavg 51¢	$174.42	$179.55	+$5.13
RN1ARB<$100	Overavg 51¢	$379.99	$378.74	-$1.25	54% 235-203 (438)
└ Over leg	Overavg 51¢	$254.99	$257.49	+$2.5
└ Under leg	Underavg 50¢	$125	$121.25	-$3.75
MA MadridTimeCTR	Underavg 50¢	$197.64	$203.81	+$6.18	25% 88-264 (352)
0xheavy888CTR	Underavg 48.1¢	$163.4	$164.9	+$1.5	67% 29-14 (43)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 47¢	$126.9	$128.25	+$1.35	52% 242-227 (469)
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816<$100	Overavg 52¢	$76.61	$77.34	+$0.74	0% 0-81 (81)
BI biying99999CTR<$100	Underavg 48¢	$69.72	$69.85	-$0.29	6% 2-34 (36)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR<$100	Underavg 48¢	$33.81	$34.16	+$0.35	2% 3-120 (123)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 48.4¢	$34.94	$25.26	+$0.48	53% 87-77 (164)
PA Pan9X<$100	Overavg 51¢	$30.86	$20.97	-$0.09	48% 174-190 (364)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Overavg 53¢	$5.2	$5	-$0.2	19% 44-191 (235)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Underavg 49¢	$4.9	$4.95	+$0.05	24% 30-97 (127)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Under

Invested

$12,307.42

Value

$11.9K

PnL

-$376.76

Record

30%

107-247 (354)

JoeyAroyyOO

Over

Invested

$11,592.77

Value

$11.5K

PnL

-$113.65

Record

0-42 (42)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Over

Invested

$5,348.59

Value

$5.5K

PnL

+$181.1

Record

30%

29-67 (96)

Both legs:

Over$4,079.5349.2¢+$193.18

Under$1,269.0650¢-$12.07

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Under

Invested

$5,269.99

Value

$5.3K

PnL

+$56.06

Record

4-156 (160)

TMingchanCTR

Under

Invested

$3,662.45

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$37.37

Record

—

2-15 (17)

nigiri99

Over

Invested

$3,032.44

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$140.66

Record

42%

28-38 (66)

hi774cCTR

Under

Invested

$1,032.83

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$0

Record

9-250 (259)

NM-PARB<$100

Under

Invested

$998.03

Value

$999.58

PnL

+$1.55

Record

11-164 (175)

Both legs:

Under$619.2549.5¢-$12.76

Over$378.7849.6¢+$14.32

KasonWongCTR

Under

Invested

$1,040

Value

$990

PnL

-$50

Record

—

0-9 (9)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$960

Value

$950

PnL

+$10.39

Record

48%

61-65 (126)

GC-PARB<$100

Under

Invested

$595.18

Value

$601.66

PnL

+$0.31

Record

11-190 (201)

Both legs:

Under$447.0849¢-$4.32

Over$148.148¢+$4.63

Anon455ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$505

Value

$500

PnL

-$5

Record

47%

82-92 (174)

Both legs:

Over$25551¢-$2.5

Under$25050¢-$2.5

38791873984189ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$473.97

Value

$418.95

PnL

-$0.96

Record

49%

388-405 (793)

Both legs:

Under$245.4948.7¢-$6.09

Over$174.4251¢+$5.13

RN1ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$379.99

Value

$378.74

PnL

-$1.25

Record

54%

235-203 (438)

Both legs:

Invested

$197.64

Value

$203.81

PnL

+$6.18

Record

25%

88-264 (352)

0xheavy888CTR

Under

Invested

$163.4

Value

$164.9

PnL

+$1.5

Record

67%

29-14 (43)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$126.9

Value

$128.25

PnL

+$1.35

Record

52%

242-227 (469)

0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816<$100

Over

Invested

$76.61

Value

$77.34

PnL

+$0.74

Record

0-81 (81)

biying99999CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$69.72

Value

$69.85

PnL

-$0.29

Record

2-34 (36)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$33.81

Value

$34.16

PnL

+$0.35

Record

3-120 (123)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$34.94

Value

$25.26

PnL

+$0.48

Record

53%

87-77 (164)

Pan9X<$100

Over

Invested

$30.86

Value

$20.97

PnL

-$0.09

Record

48%

174-190 (364)

ameisgoat11<$100

Over

Invested

$5.2

Value

PnL

-$0.2

Record

19%

44-191 (235)

RLWGCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.9

Value

$4.95

PnL

+$0.05

Record

24%

30-97 (127)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 48%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

13 of 18 top traders (72%)Underdog side (market favors Over 53%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+27 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 70% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 67% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.7%

47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$101.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

201.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.