Nuggets vs. Rockets

19 of 23 top Polymarket traders hold Rockets (83%) · Rockets at 75¢ · $33K held · ends Nov 10

Nuggets26¢Rockets74¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Rockets

Consensus Traders

Rockets 83%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$33.1K

Combined PnL

$153.9

Smart Money Entry

73.6¢ → 74.5¢

+1% since entry · 19 traders

Research grade

AvoidRockets at 75%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Rockets

19 of 23 top traders (83%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Nuggets26%

Rockets75%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Rockets19 traders

Total Value$26.3K

Total Shares35,171

Combined PnL+$693.3

Nuggets4 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares5,178

Combined PnL-$539.4

Rockets — 83%Nuggets — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 50%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

74% of non-arb traders are on Rockets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 50% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleRockets 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrRockets 69% · 16

Aligned

Hand-pickedRockets 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Rockets 72% · 18

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Rocketsavg 74¢	$7.5K	$7.6K	+$50.14	54% 20066-16931 (36997)
HI hi774cARB<$100	Rocketsavg 74¢	$4.9K	$4.2K	-$696.02	46% 5660-6562 (12222)
└ Rockets leg	Rocketsavg 74¢	$2.6K	$2.6K	+$17.3
└ Nuggets leg	Nuggetsavg 36.7¢	$2.3K	$1.6K	-$713.32
nigiri99	Rocketsavg 74.2¢	$3.8K	$3.8K	+$16.51	45% 14446-17799 (32245)
VeryLucky888	Rocketsavg 74¢	$2.8K	$2.8K	+$18.75	59% 52520-37212 (89732)
DA darkumbreon88	Rocketsavg 74¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	+$16.27	64% 2177-1205 (3382)
SE sentrio	Rocketsavg 74¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$11.66	50% 27997-27469 (55466)
38 38791873984189	Rocketsavg 74.1¢	$2.4K	$1.7K	+$7.99	48% 70392-76030 (146422)
GA Gaditima	Rocketsavg 70.3¢	$6.3K	$1.7K	+$535.59	47% 8677-9836 (18513)
OM omnibus-076daaARB<$100	Rocketsavg 73.9¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$1.52	50% 23521-23532 (47053)
└ Rockets leg	Rocketsavg 73.9¢	$938.91	$946.54	+$7.62
└ Nuggets leg	Nuggetsavg 26.4¢	$361.21	$349.02	-$6.1
FL Flaznorp	Rocketsavg 74¢	$1.5K	$1.1K	+$7.61	52% 47498-44700 (92198)
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Rocketsavg 73¢	$924	$942.98	+$18.99	48% 538-589 (1127)
SN SnakeBall	Rocketsavg 74¢	$803.57	$809	+$5.43	50% 48656-48220 (96876)
RollAwayTheDewCTR	Nuggetsavg 36.5¢	$955.05	$667.21	-$287.84	54% 601-513 (1114)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Nuggetsavg 35.5¢	$859.62	$617.71	-$241.92	51% 5742-5580 (11322)
OD Oddstorm	Rocketsavg 74.7¢	$706.55	$497.38	-$70.79	48% 8346-8906 (17252)
NM NM-P	Rocketsavg 74¢	$370	$372.5	+$2.5	58% 22615-16691 (39306)
GC GC-P	Rocketsavg 74¢	$370	$372.5	+$2.5	57% 22524-16688 (39212)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singles	Rocketsavg 50¢	$600	$236.25	+$61.25	56% 196-152 (348)
PA Pan9X	Rocketsavg 73.2¢	$377.44	$120.88	+$8.47	52% 27371-24877 (52248)
BI biying99999<$100	Rocketsavg 74¢	$29.6	$29.8	+$0.2	47% 157-175 (332)
BA BayupatiCTR<$100	Nuggetsavg 35.8¢	$34.29	$24.43	-$9.85	48% 284-303 (587)
0xheavy888<$100	Rocketsavg 74¢	$30	$22.35	+$0.15	56% 8802-6974 (15776)
GH ghorrockCTR	Nuggetsavg 25¢	$137.92	$11.01	+$0.22	57% 24733-18312 (43045)
RL RLWG<$100	Rocketsavg 73¢	$5	$3.73	+$0.08	49% 8562-8739 (17301)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Rocketsavg 74¢	$3.7	$3.73	+$0.02	52% 9544-8673 (18217)

HomeRunHazard

Rockets

Invested

$7,541.52

Value

$7.6K

PnL

+$50.14

Record

54%

20066-16931 (36997)

hi774cARB<$100

Rockets

Invested

$4,890.94

Value

$4.2K

PnL

-$696.02

Record

46%

5660-6562 (12222)

Both legs:

Rockets$2,559.974¢+$17.3

Nuggets$2,331.0436.7¢-$713.32

nigiri99

Rockets

Invested

$3,806.09

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$16.51

Record

45%

14446-17799 (32245)

VeryLucky888

Rockets

Invested

$2,775

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$18.75

Record

59%

52520-37212 (89732)

darkumbreon88

Rockets

Invested

$2,407.35

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$16.27

Record

64%

2177-1205 (3382)

sentrio

Rockets

Invested

$1,725.77

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$11.66

Record

50%

27997-27469 (55466)

38791873984189

Rockets

Invested

$2,397.68

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$7.99

Record

48%

70392-76030 (146422)

Gaditima

Rockets

Invested

$6,324.08

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$535.59

Record

47%

8677-9836 (18513)

omnibus-076daaARB<$100

Rockets

Invested

$1,294.04

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$1.52

Record

50%

23521-23532 (47053)

Both legs:

Rockets$938.9173.9¢+$7.62

Nuggets$361.2126.4¢-$6.1

Flaznorp

Rockets

Invested

$1,521.4

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$7.61

Record

52%

47498-44700 (92198)

Multicoloured-Serf

Rockets

Invested

$924

Value

$942.98

PnL

+$18.99

Record

48%

538-589 (1127)

SnakeBall

Rockets

Invested

$803.57

Value

$809

PnL

+$5.43

Record

50%

48656-48220 (96876)

RollAwayTheDewCTR

Nuggets

Invested

$955.05

Value

$667.21

PnL

-$287.84

Record

54%

601-513 (1114)

6512395314597884CTR

Nuggets

Invested

$859.62

Value

$617.71

PnL

-$241.92

Record

51%

5742-5580 (11322)

Oddstorm

Rockets

Invested

$706.55

Value

$497.38

PnL

-$70.79

Record

48%

8346-8906 (17252)

NM-P

Rockets

Invested

$370

Value

$372.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

58%

22615-16691 (39306)

GC-P

Rockets

Invested

$370

Value

$372.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

57%

22524-16688 (39212)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singles

Rockets

Invested

$600

Value

$236.25

PnL

+$61.25

Record

56%

196-152 (348)

Pan9X

Rockets

Invested

$377.44

Value

$120.88

PnL

+$8.47

Record

52%

27371-24877 (52248)

biying99999<$100

Rockets

Invested

$29.6

Value

$29.8

PnL

+$0.2

Record

47%

157-175 (332)

BayupatiCTR<$100

Nuggets

Invested

$34.29

Value

$24.43

PnL

-$9.85

Record

48%

284-303 (587)

0xheavy888<$100

Rockets

Invested

$30

Value

$22.35

PnL

+$0.15

Record

56%

8802-6974 (15776)

ghorrockCTR

Nuggets

Invested

$137.92

Value

$11.01

PnL

+$0.22

Record

57%

24733-18312 (43045)

RLWG<$100

Rockets

Invested

Value

$3.73

PnL

+$0.08

Record

49%

8562-8739 (17301)

ameisgoat11<$100

Rockets

Invested

$3.7

Value

$3.73

PnL

+$0.02

Record

52%

9544-8673 (18217)

Research grade

AvoidRockets at 75%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Rockets

19 of 23 top traders (83%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 50%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

74% of non-arb traders are on Rockets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 50% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleRockets 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrRockets 69% · 16

Aligned

Hand-pickedRockets 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Rockets 72% · 18

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Rockets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.4%

74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$30.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

130.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.