Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Lakers, while the market favors Hawks (51%). 16 of 21 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Hawks (-2.5)

16 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold Lakers (76%) · Lakers at 50¢ · $71K held · ends Nov 10

Hawks51¢Lakers49¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Lakers

Consensus Traders

Lakers 76%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$71.4K

Combined PnL

-$396.3

Smart Money Entry

50.8¢ → 49.5¢

-3% since entry · 16 traders

Research grade

AvoidLakers at 50%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Lakers

16 of 21 top traders (76%)Underdog side (market favors Hawks 51%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Hawks51%

Lakers50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Lakers16 traders

Total Value$34.4K

Total Shares67,835

Combined PnL-$498.8

Hawks5 traders

Total Value$8.9K

Total Shares17,803

Combined PnL+$102.5

Lakers — 76%Hawks — 24%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Lakers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Hawks) and the top 1000 (14 on Lakers) disagree here.

ctrLakers 50% · 12

Aligned

Hand-pickedHawks 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Lakers 64% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Hawksavg 51¢	$30.4K	$22.2K	-$469.9	30% 105-246 (351)
└ Hawks leg	Hawksavg 51¢	$12.7K	$12.6K	-$279.74
└ Lakers leg	Lakersavg 50.5¢	$9.8K	$9.6K	-$190.16
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Lakersavg 50.7¢	$16.7K	$16.3K	-$403.72	30% 29-67 (96)
SI Siddhartha1CTR	Lakersavg 51¢	$6.7K	$6.7K	+$65.36	44% 34-43 (77)
HI hi774cCTR	Lakersavg 51.2¢	$6.3K	$6.4K	+$38.1	3% 9-249 (258)
QI qinlaoban	Hawksavg 50¢	$4.0K	$4.0K	+$40	1% 1-68 (69)
FE fekefee	Hawksavg 50¢	$3.3K	$3.3K	+$33	0% 0-28 (28)
GC GC-PARB<$100	Lakersavg 51.4¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	+$3.29	5% 11-190 (201)
└ Lakers leg	Lakersavg 51.4¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$50.63
└ Hawks leg	Hawksavg 47.6¢	$899.03	$952.95	+$53.92
NM NM-PARB<$100	Lakersavg 51.9¢	$1.8K	$1.7K	-$11.24	6% 11-164 (175)
└ Lakers leg	Lakersavg 51.9¢	$1.0K	$977.63	-$46.88
└ Hawks leg	Hawksavg 48.2¢	$735.55	$771.19	+$35.64
VeryLucky888CTR	Lakersavg 50.8¢	$8.4K	$1.5K	-$174.07	49% 60-63 (123)
73 739633786	Hawksavg 46.5¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	-$0.29	0% 0-75 (75)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Lakersavg 50.1¢	$882.85	$872.05	-$10.79	52% 242-224 (466)
RN1ARB<$100	Lakersavg 52.5¢	$849.36	$833.54	-$15.81	54% 233-201 (434)
└ Lakers leg	Lakersavg 52.5¢	$525	$495	-$30
└ Hawks leg	Hawksavg 48.4¢	$324.36	$338.54	+$14.19
FaroeseNationalistCTR	Lakersavg 50¢	$777.5	$769.73	-$7.77	— 2-1 (3)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR	Lakersavg 49¢	$674.92	$681.81	+$6.89	2% 3-120 (123)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Lakersavg 52¢	$510	$500	-$15	48% 82-90 (172)
└ Hawks leg	Hawksavg 50¢	$250	$252.5	+$2.5
└ Lakers leg	Lakersavg 52¢	$260	$247.5	-$17.5
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Lakersavg 52.7¢	$614.08	$492.09	-$22.03	49% 383-404 (787)
└ Lakers leg	Lakersavg 52.7¢	$333.33	$313.34	-$27.45
└ Hawks leg	Hawksavg 49¢	$173.33	$178.76	+$5.43
MA MadridTimeCTR	Lakersavg 49¢	$367.2	$367.68	-$1.22	25% 86-262 (348)
LI LightParadox	Hawksavg 43¢	$236.98	$268.77	+$31.79	26% 87-252 (339)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Lakersavg 49.8¢	$242.7	$241.22	-$1.48	45% 38-46 (84)
BR BreakTheBankCTR	Lakersavg 49¢	$231.97	$234.34	+$2.37	40% 333-506 (839)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Hawksavg 48¢	$188	$186	-$2	5% 21-415 (436)
nigiri99CTR	Lakersavg 57¢	$162.91	$143.05	-$8.47	43% 28-37 (65)
SE sentrioCTR	Lakersavg 53.9¢	$140.56	$137.03	-$3.53	23% 49-165 (214)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Lakersavg 50.7¢	$47.76	$31.3	-$0.22	48% 173-188 (361)
BI biying99999CTR<$100	Lakersavg 49¢	$29.89	$30.2	+$0.3	6% 2-34 (36)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Hawks

Invested

$30,443.39

Value

$22.2K

PnL

-$469.9

Record

30%

105-246 (351)

Both legs:

Hawks$12,728.7851¢-$279.74

Lakers$9,812.0650.5¢-$190.16

HomeRunHazardCTR

Lakers

Invested

$16,676.06

Value

$16.3K

PnL

-$403.72

Record

30%

29-67 (96)

Siddhartha1CTR

Lakers

Invested

$6,666.66

Value

$6.7K

PnL

+$65.36

Record

44%

34-43 (77)

hi774cCTR

Lakers

Invested

$6,338

Value

$6.4K

PnL

+$38.1

Record

9-249 (258)

qinlaoban

Hawks

Invested

$4,000

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$40

Record

1-68 (69)

fekefee

Hawks

Invested

$3,300

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$33

Record

0-28 (28)

GC-PARB<$100

Lakers

Invested

$2,298.53

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$3.29

Record

11-190 (201)

Both legs:

Lakers$1,399.551.4¢-$50.63

Hawks$899.0347.6¢+$53.92

NM-PARB<$100

Lakers

Invested

$1,760.05

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$11.24

Record

11-164 (175)

Both legs:

Lakers$1,024.551.9¢-$46.88

Hawks$735.5548.2¢+$35.64

VeryLucky888CTR

Lakers

Invested

$8,367.81

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$174.07

Record

49%

60-63 (123)

739633786

Hawks

Invested

$1,034.9

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$0.29

Record

0-75 (75)

FlaznorpCTR

Lakers

Invested

$882.85

Value

$872.05

PnL

-$10.79

Record

52%

242-224 (466)

RN1ARB<$100

Lakers

Invested

$849.36

Value

$833.54

PnL

-$15.81

Record

54%

233-201 (434)

Both legs:

Lakers$52552.5¢-$30

Hawks$324.3648.4¢+$14.19

FaroeseNationalistCTR

Lakers

Invested

$777.5

Value

$769.73

PnL

-$7.77

Record

—

2-1 (3)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR

Lakers

Invested

$674.92

Value

$681.81

PnL

+$6.89

Record

3-120 (123)

Anon455ARB<$100

Lakers

Invested

$510

Value

$500

PnL

-$15

Record

48%

82-90 (172)

Both legs:

Hawks$25050¢+$2.5

Lakers$26052¢-$17.5

38791873984189ARB<$100

Lakers

Invested

$614.08

Value

$492.09

PnL

-$22.03

Record

49%

383-404 (787)

Both legs:

Lakers$333.3352.7¢-$27.45

Hawks$173.3349¢+$5.43

MadridTimeCTR

Lakers

Invested

$367.2

Value

$367.68

PnL

-$1.22

Record

25%

86-262 (348)

LightParadox

Hawks

Invested

$236.98

Value

$268.77

PnL

+$31.79

Record

26%

87-252 (339)

SnakeBallCTR

Lakers

Invested

$242.7

Value

$241.22

PnL

-$1.48

Record

45%

38-46 (84)

BreakTheBankCTR

Lakers

Invested

$231.97

Value

$234.34

PnL

+$2.37

Record

40%

333-506 (839)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Hawks

Invested

$188

Value

$186

PnL

-$2

Record

21-415 (436)

nigiri99CTR

Lakers

Invested

$162.91

Value

$143.05

PnL

-$8.47

Record

43%

28-37 (65)

sentrioCTR

Lakers

Invested

$140.56

Value

$137.03

PnL

-$3.53

Record

23%

49-165 (214)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Lakers

Invested

$47.76

Value

$31.3

PnL

-$0.22

Record

48%

173-188 (361)

biying99999CTR<$100

Lakers

Invested

$29.89

Value

$30.2

PnL

+$0.3

Record

2-34 (36)

Research grade

AvoidLakers at 50%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Lakers

16 of 21 top traders (76%)Underdog side (market favors Hawks 51%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Lakers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Hawks) and the top 1000 (14 on Lakers) disagree here.

ctrLakers 50% · 12

Aligned

Hand-pickedHawks 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Lakers 64% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Lakers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.7%

49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$93.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

193.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.