Heat vs. Jazz: O/U 226.5

4 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold Over (20%) · Over at 53¢ · $26K held · ends Nov 11

Over53¢Under47¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 20%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$26.3K

Combined PnL

$128.32

Smart Money Entry

52.3¢ → 52.5¢

+0% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 20 top traders (20%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over53%

Under48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$11.4K

Total Shares21,625

Combined PnL+$45.59

Under16 traders

Total Value$11.2K

Total Shares22,048

Combined PnL+$82.73

Over — 20%Under — 80%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SA Sassy-Bucket	Overavg 53¢	$9.2K	$9.2K	-$87.16	— 3-7 (10)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Underavg 47¢	$6.9K	$7.0K	+$68.24	57% 3074-2312 (5386)
PP ppku6298ARB<$100	Overavg 52¢	$3.1K	$3.0K	-$90	0% 0-96 (96)
└ Over leg	Overavg 52¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$0
└ Under leg	Underavg 51¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$90
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186	Overavg 49¢	$1.8K	$2.0K	+$132.12	49% 488-513 (1001)
nigiri99CTR	Underavg 48.2¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$1.71	—
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 46.7¢	$1.1K	$950	+$15	51% 300-292 (592)
JO JoeyAroyyOOCTR	Underavg 47¢	$676.63	$677.04	+$0.4	49% 95-99 (194)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Underavg 48¢	$615.69	$609.46	-$6.23	28% 275-716 (991)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Underavg 46.2¢	$381.75	$385.63	+$3.88	60% 3444-2339 (5783)
└ Under leg	Underavg 46.2¢	$196.25	$201.88	+$5.63
└ Over leg	Overavg 53¢	$185.5	$183.75	-$1.75
GC GC-PARB<$100	Overavg 53¢	$365.91	$368.79	+$2.88	16% 67-351 (418)
└ Under leg	Underavg 46.3¢	$180.41	$185.04	+$4.63
└ Over leg	Overavg 53¢	$185.5	$183.75	-$1.75
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 48¢	$300.15	$300.15	+$0	50% 1504-1508 (3012)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Underavg 47¢	$188	$190	+$2	10% 88-785 (873)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Overavg 52¢	$153.37	$153.37	+$0	54% 1657-1434 (3091)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Underavg 50¢	$75	$72	-$3	68% 1599-746 (2345)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 48¢	$66.71	$66.02	-$0.69	28% 285-731 (1016)
MU Multicoloured-Serf<$100	Overavg 52¢	$64.79	$65.42	+$0.62	47% 500-558 (1058)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Underavg 44¢	$43.56	$46.53	+$2.97	48% 949-1019 (1968)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 47.7¢	$32.42	$32.09	-$0.34	54% 383-322 (705)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 45¢	$28.8	$30.08	+$1.28	48% 190-206 (396)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 45.6¢	$16.89	$17.76	+$0.87	49% 444-470 (914)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Underavg 44¢	$8.8	$9.4	+$0.6	55% 120-97 (217)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 48¢	$8.87	$8.78	-$0.09	28% 279-730 (1009)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Underavg 48¢	$7.4	$7.4	+$0	26% 181-519 (700)

Sassy-Bucket

Over

Invested

$9,238.43

Value

$9.2K

PnL

-$87.16

Record

—

3-7 (10)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Under

Invested

$6,898.72

Value

$7.0K

PnL

+$68.24

Record

57%

3074-2312 (5386)

ppku6298ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$3,089.99

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$90

Record

0-96 (96)

Both legs:

Over$1,559.9952¢-$0

Under$1,53051¢-$90

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186

Over

Invested

$1,849.72

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$132.12

Record

49%

488-513 (1001)

nigiri99CTR

Under

Invested

$1,253.97

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$1.71

Record

—

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$1,050

Value

$950

PnL

+$15

Record

51%

300-292 (592)

JoeyAroyyOOCTR

Under

Invested

$676.63

Value

$677.04

PnL

+$0.4

Record

49%

95-99 (194)

LightParadoxCTR

Under

Invested

$615.69

Value

$609.46

PnL

-$6.23

Record

28%

275-716 (991)

NM-PARB<$100

Under

Invested

$381.75

Value

$385.63

PnL

+$3.88

Record

60%

3444-2339 (5783)

Both legs:

Under$196.2546.2¢+$5.63

Over$185.553¢-$1.75

GC-PARB<$100

Over

Invested

$365.91

Value

$368.79

PnL

+$2.88

Record

16%

67-351 (418)

Both legs:

Under$180.4146.3¢+$4.63

Over$185.553¢-$1.75

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$300.15

Value

$300.15

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

1504-1508 (3012)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Under

Invested

$188

Value

$190

PnL

+$2

Record

10%

88-785 (873)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Over

Invested

$153.37

Value

$153.37

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

1657-1434 (3091)

RLWGCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$75

Value

$72

PnL

-$3

Record

68%

1599-746 (2345)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$66.71

Value

$66.02

PnL

-$0.69

Record

28%

285-731 (1016)

Multicoloured-Serf<$100

Over

Invested

$64.79

Value

$65.42

PnL

+$0.62

Record

47%

500-558 (1058)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$43.56

Value

$46.53

PnL

+$2.97

Record

48%

949-1019 (1968)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$32.42

Value

$32.09

PnL

-$0.34

Record

54%

383-322 (705)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$28.8

Value

$30.08

PnL

+$1.28

Record

48%

190-206 (396)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$16.89

Value

$17.76

PnL

+$0.87

Record

49%

444-470 (914)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$8.8

Value

$9.4

PnL

+$0.6

Record

55%

120-97 (217)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$8.87

Value

$8.78

PnL

-$0.09

Record

28%

279-730 (1009)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$7.4

Value

$7.4

PnL

+$0

Record

26%

181-519 (700)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 20 top traders (20%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.