Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (51%). 8 of 15 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Heat vs. Jazz: O/U 227.5

8 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Over (53%) · Over at 50¢ · $54K held · ends Nov 11

Over50¢Under50¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 53%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$54.4K

Combined PnL

-$835.63

Smart Money Entry

49.7¢ → 49.5¢

+0% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 50%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

8 of 15 top traders (53%)Underdog side (market favors Under 51%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over50%

Under51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over8 traders

Total Value$16.6K

Total Shares35,815

Combined PnL$-1.3K

Under7 traders

Total Value$14.9K

Total Shares27,959

Combined PnL+$426.03

Over — 53%Under — 47%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Underavg 48¢	$14.2K	$14.8K	+$579.37	57% 3074-2312 (5386)
└ Under leg	Underavg 48¢	$8.8K	$9.9K	+$1.1K
└ Over leg	Overavg 50.8¢	$5.5K	$5.0K	-$519.22
MO monkeymashingkeyboardCTR	Overavg 52¢	$10.4K	$9.2K	$-1.2K	54% 514-436 (950)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Underavg 53.9¢	$8.8K	$8.8K	-$60.79	54% 1656-1433 (3089)
HI hi774cCTR	Overavg 46¢	$5.6K	$5.6K	+$0	8% 37-422 (459)
JO JoeyAroyyOO	Underavg 48.9¢	$4.7K	$5.1K	+$391.95	49% 95-99 (194)
nigiri99ARB<$100	Underavg 49.9¢	$5.0K	$5.0K	+$39.23	52% 128-120 (248)
└ Under leg	Underavg 49.9¢	$3.9K	$3.9K	+$48.69
└ Over leg	Overavg 49.9¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$9.46
NM NM-PARB<$100	Overavg 48.5¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$5.04	60% 3444-2339 (5783)
└ Over leg	Overavg 48.5¢	$1.0K	$981.64	-$41.69
└ Under leg	Underavg 49.4¢	$566.36	$613.09	+$46.73
GC GC-PARB<$100	Overavg 47.4¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$28.48	16% 67-351 (418)
└ Over leg	Overavg 47.4¢	$709.99	$688.97	-$21.02
└ Under leg	Underavg 48.2¢	$409.5	$459	+$49.5
IC ic4creamCTR	Overavg 51¢	$934.55	$907.07	-$27.49	1% 4-440 (444)
LI LightParadox	Underavg 48¢	$696.56	$769.12	+$72.56	28% 274-715 (989)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Overavg 50¢	$401.51	$369.38	-$32.12	48% 190-206 (396)
VeryLucky888ARB<$100	Overavg 50¢	$266.25	$250	+$10.77	51% 299-291 (590)
└ Under leg	Underavg 47¢	$117.53	$135	+$20.77
└ Over leg	Overavg 50¢	$125	$115	-$10
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Underavg 49¢	$196	$216	+$20	10% 88-785 (873)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Overavg 46¢	$208	$208	+$0	47% 500-558 (1058)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Overavg 47¢	$162.79	$171.45	+$8.66	28% 278-703 (981)
VE VenusianARB<$100	Overavg 49¢	$154.78	$145.25	+$2.91	28% 278-729 (1007)
└ Over leg	Overavg 49¢	$95.67	$96.64	+$0.98
└ Under leg	Underavg 49¢	$47.17	$48.61	+$1.93
FL FlaznorpCTR	Overavg 50¢	$108.5	$99.82	-$8.68	50% 1503-1507 (3010)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 50.3¢	$50.45	$23.98	+$0.32	54% 383-321 (704)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Overavg 50¢	$25.49	$23.45	-$2.04	34% 233-457 (690)
0xheavy888<$100	Underavg 46.7¢	$13.49	$15.31	+$1.82	55% 119-96 (215)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Underavg 49.3¢	$7.4	$7.58	+$0.17	26% 180-518 (698)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Under

Invested

$14,239.69

Value

$14.8K

PnL

+$579.37

Record

57%

3074-2312 (5386)

Both legs:

Under$8,759.3648¢+$1.1K

Over$5,480.3350.8¢-$519.22

monkeymashingkeyboardCTR

Over

Invested

$10,399.95

Value

$9.2K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

54%

514-436 (950)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Under

Invested

$8,818.29

Value

$8.8K

PnL

-$60.79

Record

54%

1656-1433 (3089)

hi774cCTR

Over

Invested

$5,572.11

Value

$5.6K

PnL

+$0

Record

37-422 (459)

JoeyAroyyOO

Under

Invested

$4,730.49

Value

$5.1K

PnL

+$391.95

Record

49%

95-99 (194)

nigiri99ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$4,981.33

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$39.23

Record

52%

128-120 (248)

Both legs:

Under$3,866.5349.9¢+$48.69

Over$1,114.849.9¢-$9.46

NM-PARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,589.69

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$5.04

Record

60%

3444-2339 (5783)

Both legs:

Over$1,023.3348.5¢-$41.69

Under$566.3649.4¢+$46.73

GC-PARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,119.49

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$28.48

Record

16%

67-351 (418)

Both legs:

Over$709.9947.4¢-$21.02

Under$409.548.2¢+$49.5

ic4creamCTR

Over

Invested

$934.55

Value

$907.07

PnL

-$27.49

Record

4-440 (444)

LightParadox

Under

Invested

$696.56

Value

$769.12

PnL

+$72.56

Record

28%

274-715 (989)

SnakeBallCTR

Over

Invested

$401.51

Value

$369.38

PnL

-$32.12

Record

48%

190-206 (396)

VeryLucky888ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$266.25

Value

$250

PnL

+$10.77

Record

51%

299-291 (590)

Both legs:

Under$117.5347¢+$20.77

Over$12550¢-$10

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Under

Invested

$196

Value

$216

PnL

+$20

Record

10%

88-785 (873)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Over

Invested

$208

Value

$208

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

500-558 (1058)

MadridTimeCTR

Over

Invested

$162.79

Value

$171.45

PnL

+$8.66

Record

28%

278-703 (981)

VenusianARB<$100

Over

Invested

$154.78

Value

$145.25

PnL

+$2.91

Record

28%

278-729 (1007)

Both legs:

Invested

$108.5

Value

$99.82

PnL

-$8.68

Record

50%

1503-1507 (3010)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$50.45

Value

$23.98

PnL

+$0.32

Record

54%

383-321 (704)

sentrioCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$25.49

Value

$23.45

PnL

-$2.04

Record

34%

233-457 (690)

0xheavy888<$100

Under

Invested

$13.49

Value

$15.31

PnL

+$1.82

Record

55%

119-96 (215)

ameisgoat11<$100

Under

Invested

$7.4

Value

$7.58

PnL

+$0.17

Record

26%

180-518 (698)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 50%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

8 of 15 top traders (53%)Underdog side (market favors Under 51%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.7%

49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$93.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

193.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.