Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (78%). 10 of 18 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Thunder vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 224.5

10 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Under (56%) · Under at 22¢ · $29K held · ended Nov 11

Over78¢Under22¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 56%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$28.5K

Combined PnL

$-4.6K

Smart Money Entry

50.5¢ → 22¢

-56% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 22%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

10 of 18 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Over 78%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over78%

Under22%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under10 traders

Total Value$10.4K

Total Shares28,921

Combined PnL$-4.6K

Over8 traders

Total Value$7.1K

Total Shares13,803

Combined PnL+$1.4

Under — 56%Over — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+11 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 67% · 12

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 69% · 16

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Overavg 49.1¢	$8.4K	$8.2K	-$238.51	57% 3101-2332 (5433)
└ Over leg	Overavg 49.1¢	$6.3K	$5.9K	-$393.74
└ Under leg	Underavg 49.6¢	$2.1K	$2.3K	+$155.22
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Underavg 51.1¢	$9.1K	$4.8K	$-4.4K	54% 1691-1468 (3159)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Underavg 50¢	$4.2K	$4.5K	+$272.27	29% 322-773 (1095)
nehcnehc	Overavg 50¢	$4.7K	$4.3K	-$378.2	21% 15-58 (73)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Overavg 47.1¢	$806.58	$1.2K	+$380.02	55% 541-436 (977)
HI hi774c	Overavg 48¢	$1.0K	$992.53	-$43.15	10% 46-435 (481)
RN1ARB<$100	Underavg 51.5¢	$1.2K	$846.69	-$399.94	58% 3865-2855 (6720)
└ Under leg	Underavg 51.5¢	$933.63	$462.27	-$471.36
└ Over leg	Overavg 60.7¢	$313	$384.42	+$71.42
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Overavg 51.8¢	$968.61	$718.54	-$48.05	48% 1027-1110 (2137)
└ Over leg	Overavg 51.8¢	$450.27	$399.92	-$58.06
└ Under leg	Underavg 51¢	$305.35	$318.62	+$10.01
SE sentrioARB<$100	Overavg 49¢	$674.63	$652.69	-$21.94	35% 279-508 (787)
└ Over leg	Overavg 49¢	$492.4	$462.3	-$30.1
└ Under leg	Underavg 50.9¢	$182.23	$190.39	+$8.16
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 57¢	$404.67	$441.9	+$37.23	50% 1618-1607 (3225)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 44.3¢	$415.61	$326.75	+$49.36	51% 354-335 (689)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Overavg 49¢	$284	$294.03	+$10.03	60% 3453-2346 (5799)
└ Over leg	Overavg 49¢	$171.5	$161	-$10.5
└ Under leg	Underavg 45¢	$112.5	$133.03	+$20.53
GC GC-PARB<$100	Overavg 49¢	$268.79	$275.96	+$7.16	17% 75-358 (433)
└ Over leg	Overavg 49¢	$171.5	$161	-$10.5
└ Under leg	Underavg 45¢	$97.29	$114.96	+$17.66
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Underavg 46¢	$184	$212.85	+$28.85	12% 105-801 (906)
BI biying88888CTR	Underavg 51.3¢	$478.04	$205.08	-$272.96	28% 69-175 (244)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Underavg 49.5¢	$450.47	$200.41	-$250.06	51% 3187-3102 (6289)
VE VenusianCTR	Underavg 48¢	$134.4	$149	+$14.6	28% 317-800 (1117)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Overavg 71.4¢	$115.5	$120.47	+$4.97	53% 228-199 (427)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 48¢	$75.56	$48.26	-$27.3	29% 329-806 (1135)
PA Pan9X<$100	Overavg 57.7¢	$86.48	$39.88	-$4.1	49% 498-518 (1016)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Underavg 48.4¢	$26.26	$26.17	-$0.09	57% 145-111 (256)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 48¢	$26.94	$20.55	-$0.65	54% 445-377 (822)
LI LightParadox<$100	Overavg 49¢	$9.31	$14.25	+$4.94	29% 315-788 (1103)
PW Pwaddler<$100	Overavg 52¢	$2.66	$2.36	-$0.31	49% 259-274 (533)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Over

Invested

$8,406.05

Value

$8.2K

PnL

-$238.51

Record

57%

3101-2332 (5433)

Both legs:

Over$6,257.9949.1¢-$393.74

Under$2,148.0649.6¢+$155.22

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Under

Invested

$9,139.45

Value

$4.8K

PnL

$-4.4K

Record

54%

1691-1468 (3159)

MadridTimeCTR

Under

Invested

$4,204.22

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$272.27

Record

29%

322-773 (1095)

nehcnehc

Over

Invested

$4,727.5

Value

$4.3K

PnL

-$378.2

Record

21%

15-58 (73)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Over

Invested

$806.58

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$380.02

Record

55%

541-436 (977)

hi774c

Over

Invested

$1,035.68

Value

$992.53

PnL

-$43.15

Record

10%

46-435 (481)

RN1ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,246.63

Value

$846.69

PnL

-$399.94

Record

58%

3865-2855 (6720)

Both legs:

Under$933.6351.5¢-$471.36

Over$31360.7¢+$71.42

38791873984189ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$968.61

Value

$718.54

PnL

-$48.05

Record

48%

1027-1110 (2137)

Both legs:

Over$450.2751.8¢-$58.06

Under$305.3551¢+$10.01

sentrioARB<$100

Over

Invested

$674.63

Value

$652.69

PnL

-$21.94

Record

35%

279-508 (787)

Both legs:

Over$492.449¢-$30.1

Under$182.2350.9¢+$8.16

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$404.67

Value

$441.9

PnL

+$37.23

Record

50%

1618-1607 (3225)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$415.61

Value

$326.75

PnL

+$49.36

Record

51%

354-335 (689)

NM-PARB<$100

Over

Invested

$284

Value

$294.03

PnL

+$10.03

Record

60%

3453-2346 (5799)

Both legs:

Over$171.549¢-$10.5

Under$112.545¢+$20.53

GC-PARB<$100

Over

Invested

$268.79

Value

$275.96

PnL

+$7.16

Record

17%

75-358 (433)

Both legs:

Over$171.549¢-$10.5

Under$97.2945¢+$17.66

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Under

Invested

$184

Value

$212.85

PnL

+$28.85

Record

12%

105-801 (906)

biying88888CTR

Under

Invested

$478.04

Value

$205.08

PnL

-$272.96

Record

28%

69-175 (244)

6512395314597884CTR

Under

Invested

$450.47

Value

$200.41

PnL

-$250.06

Record

51%

3187-3102 (6289)

VenusianCTR

Under

Invested

$134.4

Value

$149

PnL

+$14.6

Record

28%

317-800 (1117)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Over

Invested

$115.5

Value

$120.47

PnL

+$4.97

Record

53%

228-199 (427)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$75.56

Value

$48.26

PnL

-$27.3

Record

29%

329-806 (1135)

Pan9X<$100

Over

Invested

$86.48

Value

$39.88

PnL

-$4.1

Record

49%

498-518 (1016)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$26.26

Value

$26.17

PnL

-$0.09

Record

57%

145-111 (256)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$26.94

Value

$20.55

PnL

-$0.65

Record

54%

445-377 (822)

LightParadox<$100

Over

Invested

$9.31

Value

$14.25

PnL

+$4.94

Record

29%

315-788 (1103)

Pwaddler<$100

Over

Invested

$2.66

Value

$2.36

PnL

-$0.31

Record

49%

259-274 (533)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 22%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

10 of 18 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Over 78%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+11 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 67% · 12

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 69% · 16

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance23.9%

22.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$318.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

418.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.