Spread: Thunder (-2.5)

12 of 31 top Polymarket traders hold Trail Blazers (39%) · Trail Blazers at 96¢ · $19K held · ended Nov 12

Thunder5¢Trail Blazers95¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Trail Blazers

Consensus Traders

Trail Blazers 39%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$19.3K

Combined PnL

$1.3K

Smart Money Entry

56.5¢ → 95.5¢

+69% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

AvoidTrail Blazers at 96%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Trail Blazers

12 of 31 top traders (39%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed19 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Thunder5%

Trail Blazers96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Trail Blazers12 traders

Total Value$12.9K

Total Shares18,220

Combined PnL+$1.9K

Thunder19 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares4,513

Combined PnL-$532.87

Trail Blazers — 39%Thunder — 61%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on Trail Blazers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Trail Blazers) and the top 1000 (27 on Thunder) disagree here.

ctrThunder 65% · 23

Diverging

Hand-pickedTrail Blazers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Thunder 67% · 27

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Trail Blazersavg 56¢	$5.1K	$5.6K	+$889.43	52% 642-600 (1242)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Thunderavg 44.1¢	$4.0K	$3.4K	-$676.88	57% 3336-2523 (5859)
└ Thunder leg	Thunderavg 44.1¢	$3.4K	$2.7K	-$788.62
└ Trail Blazers leg	Trail Blazersavg 55.6¢	$594.41	$706.16	+$111.75
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Trail Blazersavg 52¢	$2.6K	$3.1K	+$411.04	52% 1960-1815 (3775)
JU justaluckydude	Trail Blazersavg 69.6¢	$928.52	$1.1K	+$131.4	40% 259-395 (654)
RN1ARB<$100	Thunderavg 41¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$45.38	57% 4253-3271 (7524)
└ Trail Blazers leg	Trail Blazersavg 52.2¢	$419.63	$574.68	+$155.05
└ Thunder leg	Thunderavg 41¢	$657.87	$457.44	-$200.43
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Trail Blazersavg 66.5¢	$3.2K	$945.24	+$14.59	54% 930-784 (1714)
SU SunlineTicker	Trail Blazersavg 56.8¢	$713.12	$828.89	+$115.78	70% 1680-725 (2405)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Thunderavg 27.7¢	$603.18	$689.5	+$86.32	51% 2280-2184 (4464)
└ Thunder leg	Thunderavg 27.7¢	$403.68	$503	+$99.32
└ Trail Blazers leg	Trail Blazersavg 70.1¢	$199.5	$186.49	-$13
FO forecastication4	Trail Blazersavg 53.3¢	$470.9	$583.44	+$112.54	24% 78-247 (325)
TA takeormake	Trail Blazersavg 57.4¢	$254.22	$352.28	+$98.06	58% 3259-2339 (5598)
MA MadridTime	Trail Blazersavg 45.8¢	$200.97	$287.57	+$86.6	33% 490-999 (1489)
AN Anon455CTR	Thunderavg 47.3¢	$1.8K	$174.85	-$72.27	47% 219-247 (466)
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR	Thunderavg 42.8¢	$430.88	$170.33	-$10.55	47% 296-333 (629)
NM NM-PCTR	Thunderavg 44¢	$154	$118.88	-$35.12	60% 3508-2386 (5894)
GC GC-PCTR	Thunderavg 44¢	$154	$118.88	-$35.12	24% 129-399 (528)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Thunderavg 35.4¢	$204.72	$118.71	-$86	50% 3375-3365 (6740)
38 38791873984189CTR	Thunderavg 41.9¢	$950.6	$99.89	-$146.6	47% 1785-2006 (3791)
nigiri99CTR	Thunderavg 43.5¢	$231.44	$97.48	-$30.96	51% 267-256 (523)
FO Forecastication2<$100	Trail Blazersavg 61.4¢	$88.45	$95.04	+$6.59	41% 124-177 (301)
PA Pan9XCTR	Thunderavg 40.9¢	$251.75	$85.09	-$19.44	47% 847-942 (1789)
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Thunderavg 44¢	$79.94	$73.39	-$6.55	47% 385-437 (822)
└ Trail Blazers leg	Trail Blazersavg 62¢	$39.94	$42.52	+$2.58
└ Thunder leg	Thunderavg 44¢	$40	$30.88	-$9.12
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Thunderavg 36.5¢	$73	$57	-$16	53% 5981-5353 (11334)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Thunderavg 37¢	$66.29	$36.76	-$29.53	32% 480-1013 (1493)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Thunderavg 30¢	$29.1	$35.41	+$6.31	60% 2805-1885 (4690)
dips.CTR<$100	Thunderavg 30¢	$29.1	$35.41	+$6.31	45% 462-565 (1027)

VeryLucky888

Trail Blazers

Invested

$5,079.77

Value

$5.6K

PnL

+$889.43

Record

52%

642-600 (1242)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Thunder

Invested

$4,037.8

Value

$3.4K

PnL

-$676.88

Record

57%

3336-2523 (5859)

Both legs:

Thunder$3,443.3944.1¢-$788.62

Trail Blazers$594.4155.6¢+$111.75

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Trail Blazers

Invested

$2,643.31

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$411.04

Record

52%

1960-1815 (3775)

justaluckydude

Trail Blazers

Invested

$928.52

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$131.4

Record

40%

259-395 (654)

RN1ARB<$100

Thunder

Invested

$1,077.5

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$45.38

Record

57%

4253-3271 (7524)

Both legs:

Trail Blazers$419.6352.2¢+$155.05

Thunder$657.8741¢-$200.43

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Trail Blazers

Invested

$3,203.05

Value

$945.24

PnL

+$14.59

Record

54%

930-784 (1714)

SunlineTicker

Trail Blazers

Invested

$713.12

Value

$828.89

PnL

+$115.78

Record

70%

1680-725 (2405)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Thunder

Invested

$603.18

Value

$689.5

PnL

+$86.32

Record

51%

2280-2184 (4464)

Both legs:

Thunder$403.6827.7¢+$99.32

Trail Blazers$199.570.1¢-$13

forecastication4

Trail Blazers

Invested

$470.9

Value

$583.44

PnL

+$112.54

Record

24%

78-247 (325)

takeormake

Trail Blazers

Invested

$254.22

Value

$352.28

PnL

+$98.06

Record

58%

3259-2339 (5598)

MadridTime

Trail Blazers

Invested

$200.97

Value

$287.57

PnL

+$86.6

Record

33%

490-999 (1489)

Anon455CTR

Thunder

Invested

$1,833.13

Value

$174.85

PnL

-$72.27

Record

47%

219-247 (466)

CandleHammerDrumsCTR

Thunder

Invested

$430.88

Value

$170.33

PnL

-$10.55

Record

47%

296-333 (629)

NM-PCTR

Thunder

Invested

$154

Value

$118.88

PnL

-$35.12

Record

60%

3508-2386 (5894)

GC-PCTR

Thunder

Invested

$154

Value

$118.88

PnL

-$35.12

Record

24%

129-399 (528)

6512395314597884CTR

Thunder

Invested

$204.72

Value

$118.71

PnL

-$86

Record

50%

3375-3365 (6740)

38791873984189CTR

Thunder

Invested

$950.6

Value

$99.89

PnL

-$146.6

Record

47%

1785-2006 (3791)

nigiri99CTR

Thunder

Invested

$231.44

Value

$97.48

PnL

-$30.96

Record

51%

267-256 (523)

Forecastication2<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$88.45

Value

$95.04

PnL

+$6.59

Record

41%

124-177 (301)

Pan9XCTR

Thunder

Invested

$251.75

Value

$85.09

PnL

-$19.44

Record

47%

847-942 (1789)

SnakeBallARB<$100

Thunder

Invested

$79.94

Value

$73.39

PnL

-$6.55

Record

47%

385-437 (822)

Both legs:

Trail Blazers$39.9462¢+$2.58

Thunder$4044¢-$9.12

cigarettesCTR<$100

Thunder

Invested

$73

Value

$57

PnL

-$16

Record

53%

5981-5353 (11334)

LimousinCTR<$100

Thunder

Invested

$66.29

Value

$36.76

PnL

-$29.53

Record

32%

480-1013 (1493)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Thunder

Invested

$29.1

Value

$35.41

PnL

+$6.31

Record

60%

2805-1885 (4690)

dips.CTR<$100

Thunder

Invested

$29.1

Value

$35.41

PnL

+$6.31

Record

45%

462-565 (1027)

Research grade

AvoidTrail Blazers at 96%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Trail Blazers

12 of 31 top traders (39%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed19 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on Trail Blazers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Trail Blazers) and the top 1000 (27 on Thunder) disagree here.

ctrThunder 65% · 23

Diverging

Hand-pickedTrail Blazers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Thunder 67% · 27

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Trail Blazers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.7%

95.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.