Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (73%). 10 of 21 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spurs vs. Bulls: O/U 237.5

10 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold Under (48%) · Under at 27¢ · $87K held · ended Nov 12

Over73¢Under27¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 48%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$87.3K

Combined PnL

$-3.7K

Smart Money Entry

52¢ → 27¢

-48% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 27%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

10 of 21 top traders (48%)Underdog side (market favors Over 73%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over73%

Under27%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over11 traders

Total Value$47.1K

Total Shares92,584

Combined PnL+$2.4K

Under10 traders

Total Value$39.5K

Total Shares87,537

Combined PnL$-6.1K

Over — 52%Under — 48%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

56% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Diverging

sniperOver 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrUnder 54% · 13

Aligned

Top 1000Under 56% · 16

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x492442EaB586F242B53bDa933fD5dE859c8A3782-1766317541188	Overavg 46¢	$27.0K	$29.6K	+$2.6K	49% 115-121 (236)
JO JoeyAroyyOOCTR	Underavg 54¢	$18.3K	$18.5K	+$169.45	48% 101-110 (211)
BO BoggsFromShawshank	Overavg 48.8¢	$12.6K	$11.8K	-$849.17	2% 7-386 (393)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Underavg 53.6¢	$8.8K	$8.0K	-$822.98	57% 3229-2433 (5662)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Underavg 51¢	$10.8K	$6.1K	$-4.8K	53% 1851-1666 (3517)
HI hi774cCTR	Underavg 54¢	$5.0K	$5.0K	+$46.3	14% 77-472 (549)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Overavg 63.3¢	$3.4K	$3.9K	+$515.48	55% 719-584 (1303)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Underavg 36.8¢	$2.3K	$1.5K	-$723.71	50% 3301-3257 (6558)
RN1	Overavg 64.9¢	$651.22	$752.55	+$101.34	57% 4059-3077 (7136)
AN Anon455	Overavg 61.6¢	$543.7	$591.6	+$47.9	45% 183-223 (406)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Overavg 62.5¢	$524.83	$511.11	-$13.72	51% 1925-1864 (3789)
└ Over leg	Overavg 62.5¢	$347.43	$372.51	+$25.08
└ Under leg	Underavg 42.2¢	$177.4	$138.6	-$38.8
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Overavg 47¢	$375.99	$363.99	-$12	15% 150-841 (991)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Overavg 48.5¢	$364.52	$212.35	-$14.17	48% 1427-1570 (2997)
└ Over leg	Overavg 48.5¢	$120.16	$112.84	-$14.68
└ Under leg	Underavg 54.2¢	$99	$99.51	+$0.51
GC GC-PCTR	Underavg 54¢	$189	$190.75	+$1.75	20% 99-384 (483)
NM NM-PCTR	Underavg 54¢	$181.02	$182.69	+$1.68	59% 3478-2370 (5848)
RL RLWG<$100	Overavg 48¢	$48	$45.5	-$2.5	67% 1661-814 (2475)
PA Pan9X<$100	Overavg 48.2¢	$68.59	$44.61	+$3.77	49% 692-733 (1425)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 52.8¢	$35.81	$8.02	-$5.95	55% 680-552 (1232)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Overavg 63¢	$6.3	$7.5	+$1.2	60% 2613-1718 (4331)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Overavg 55¢	$5.35	$5	-$0.35	34% 327-634 (961)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 46¢	$2.3	$2.7	+$0.4	30% 401-920 (1321)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Overavg 45¢	$2.61	$2.64	+$0.03	39% 162-258 (420)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 45¢	$1.64	$1.96	+$0.33	47% 299-342 (641)

0x492442EaB586F242B53bDa933fD5dE859c8A3782-1766317541188

Over

Invested

$26,972.42

Value

$29.6K

PnL

+$2.6K

Record

49%

115-121 (236)

JoeyAroyyOOCTR

Under

Invested

$18,300.87

Value

$18.5K

PnL

+$169.45

Record

48%

101-110 (211)

BoggsFromShawshank

Over

Invested

$12,609.43

Value

$11.8K

PnL

-$849.17

Record

7-386 (393)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Under

Invested

$8,829.08

Value

$8.0K

PnL

-$822.98

Record

57%

3229-2433 (5662)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Under

Invested

$10,849.63

Value

$6.1K

PnL

$-4.8K

Record

53%

1851-1666 (3517)

hi774cCTR

Under

Invested

$5,000

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$46.3

Record

14%

77-472 (549)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Over

Invested

$3,389.8

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$515.48

Record

55%

719-584 (1303)

6512395314597884CTR

Under

Invested

$2,258.71

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$723.71

Record

50%

3301-3257 (6558)

RN1

Over

Invested

$651.22

Value

$752.55

PnL

+$101.34

Record

57%

4059-3077 (7136)

Anon455

Over

Invested

$543.7

Value

$591.6

PnL

+$47.9

Record

45%

183-223 (406)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$524.83

Value

$511.11

PnL

-$13.72

Record

51%

1925-1864 (3789)

Both legs:

Over$347.4362.5¢+$25.08

Under$177.442.2¢-$38.8

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Over

Invested

$375.99

Value

$363.99

PnL

-$12

Record

15%

150-841 (991)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$364.52

Value

$212.35

PnL

-$14.17

Record

48%

1427-1570 (2997)

Both legs:

Over$120.1648.5¢-$14.68

Under$9954.2¢+$0.51

GC-PCTR

Under

Invested

$189

Value

$190.75

PnL

+$1.75

Record

20%

99-384 (483)

NM-PCTR

Under

Invested

$181.02

Value

$182.69

PnL

+$1.68

Record

59%

3478-2370 (5848)

RLWG<$100

Over

Invested

$48

Value

$45.5

PnL

-$2.5

Record

67%

1661-814 (2475)

Pan9X<$100

Over

Invested

$68.59

Value

$44.61

PnL

+$3.77

Record

49%

692-733 (1425)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$35.81

Value

$8.02

PnL

-$5.95

Record

55%

680-552 (1232)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Over

Invested

$6.3

Value

$7.5

PnL

+$1.2

Record

60%

2613-1718 (4331)

ameisgoat11<$100

Over

Invested

$5.35

Value

PnL

-$0.35

Record

34%

327-634 (961)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.3

Value

$2.7

PnL

+$0.4

Record

30%

401-920 (1321)

LuckyLoo<$100

Over

Invested

$2.61

Value

$2.64

PnL

+$0.03

Record

39%

162-258 (420)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.64

Value

$1.96

PnL

+$0.33

Record

47%

299-342 (641)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 27%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

10 of 21 top traders (48%)Underdog side (market favors Over 73%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

56% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Diverging

sniperOver 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrUnder 54% · 13

Aligned

Top 1000Under 56% · 16

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance29.0%

27.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$244.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

344.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.