Spurs vs. Bulls: O/U 239.5

11 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Over (69%) · Over at 69¢ · $17K held · ended Nov 12

Over69¢Under31¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 69%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$17.1K

Combined PnL

-$601.62

Smart Money Entry

48.6¢ → 69¢

+42% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 69%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

11 of 16 top traders (69%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over69%

Under31%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over11 traders

Total Value$5.7K

Total Shares13,187

Combined PnL-$711.51

Under5 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares2,615

Combined PnL+$109.89

Over — 69%Under — 31%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

82% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 88% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 80% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Underavg 52.1¢	$9.0K	$7.8K	$-1.0K	57% 3229-2433 (5662)
└ Over leg	Overavg 49.5¢	$3.1K	$4.2K	+$1.1K
└ Under leg	Underavg 52.1¢	$5.8K	$3.6K	$-2.2K
nehcnehc	Overavg 49¢	$4.7K	$3.9K	-$868.86	25% 21-63 (84)
drainedandpoorCTR	Underavg 52.6¢	$1.2K	$1.4K	+$127.2	47% 414-462 (876)
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Overavg 43¢	$741.25	$772.61	+$31.36	47% 299-342 (641)
└ Under leg	Underavg 51¢	$342.56	$406.37	+$63.81
└ Over leg	Overavg 43¢	$398.69	$366.24	-$32.45
LI Limousin	Overavg 42¢	$265.49	$426.68	+$161.19	30% 401-920 (1321)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Underavg 53.4¢	$527.87	$375.75	-$3.58	48% 1427-1570 (2997)
└ Under leg	Underavg 53.4¢	$217.22	$230.03	+$12.81
└ Over leg	Overavg 46.5¢	$155.79	$145.73	-$16.38
RN1	Overavg 55.7¢	$273.65	$341.6	+$67.95	57% 4059-3077 (7136)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Overavg 46¢	$368	$320	-$48	15% 150-841 (991)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Underavg 44.5¢	$292.6	$305.59	+$12.99	51% 1925-1864 (3789)
└ Under leg	Underavg 44.5¢	$163.3	$155.98	-$7.33
└ Over leg	Overavg 49.7¢	$129.3	$149.61	+$20.31
NM NM-PARB<$100	Overavg 47¢	$324.7	$305.56	-$19.14	59% 3478-2370 (5848)
└ Under leg	Underavg 57.9¢	$160.21	$167.32	+$7.11
└ Over leg	Overavg 47¢	$164.49	$138.24	-$26.25
GC GC-PARB<$100	Overavg 46.5¢	$312.97	$285.6	-$27.37	20% 99-384 (483)
└ Over leg	Overavg 46.5¢	$211.47	$179.73	-$31.74
└ Under leg	Underavg 58¢	$101.5	$105.88	+$4.38
AN Anon455	Overavg 56¢	$269.76	$274.57	+$4.82	45% 183-223 (406)
LI LightParadox	Overavg 40¢	$265.52	$262.2	-$3.32	31% 412-918 (1330)
VeryLucky888	Overavg 49¢	$377.1	$100.01	-$20	52% 497-452 (949)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100	Overavg 56.2¢	$74.63	$75.72	+$1.09	55% 719-584 (1303)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Underavg 44¢	$48.81	$47.15	-$1.66	53% 1851-1666 (3517)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Underavg 43¢	$40.85	$28.97	-$11.88	50% 3301-3257 (6558)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 50.4¢	$38.73	$27.18	-$0.97	55% 680-552 (1232)
SE sentrio<$100	Overavg 48¢	$26.89	$22.41	-$4.48	39% 394-619 (1013)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 55.1¢	$50.88	$14.04	-$2.8	49% 692-733 (1425)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Overavg 51¢	$7.65	$6	-$1.65	34% 327-634 (961)
RL RLWG<$100	Overavg 42¢	$4.22	$3.97	-$0.25	67% 1661-814 (2475)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Under

Invested

$8,987.17

Value

$7.8K

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

57%

3229-2433 (5662)

Both legs:

Over$3,108.1749.5¢+$1.1K

Under$5,779.3452.1¢$-2.2K

nehcnehc

Over

Invested

$4,730.44

Value

$3.9K

PnL

-$868.86

Record

25%

21-63 (84)

drainedandpoorCTR

Under

Invested

$1,240.6

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$127.2

Record

47%

414-462 (876)

SnakeBallARB<$100

Over

Invested

$741.25

Value

$772.61

PnL

+$31.36

Record

47%

299-342 (641)

Both legs:

Under$342.5651¢+$63.81

Over$398.6943¢-$32.45

Limousin

Over

Invested

$265.49

Value

$426.68

PnL

+$161.19

Record

30%

401-920 (1321)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$527.87

Value

$375.75

PnL

-$3.58

Record

48%

1427-1570 (2997)

Both legs:

Under$217.2253.4¢+$12.81

Over$155.7946.5¢-$16.38

RN1

Over

Invested

$273.65

Value

$341.6

PnL

+$67.95

Record

57%

4059-3077 (7136)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Over

Invested

$368

Value

$320

PnL

-$48

Record

15%

150-841 (991)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$292.6

Value

$305.59

PnL

+$12.99

Record

51%

1925-1864 (3789)

Both legs:

Under$163.344.5¢-$7.33

Over$129.349.7¢+$20.31

NM-PARB<$100

Over

Invested

$324.7

Value

$305.56

PnL

-$19.14

Record

59%

3478-2370 (5848)

Both legs:

Under$160.2157.9¢+$7.11

Over$164.4947¢-$26.25

GC-PARB<$100

Over

Invested

$312.97

Value

$285.6

PnL

-$27.37

Record

20%

99-384 (483)

Both legs:

Over$211.4746.5¢-$31.74

Under$101.558¢+$4.38

Anon455

Over

Invested

$269.76

Value

$274.57

PnL

+$4.82

Record

45%

183-223 (406)

LightParadox

Over

Invested

$265.52

Value

$262.2

PnL

-$3.32

Record

31%

412-918 (1330)

VeryLucky888

Over

Invested

$377.1

Value

$100.01

PnL

-$20

Record

52%

497-452 (949)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100

Over

Invested

$74.63

Value

$75.72

PnL

+$1.09

Record

55%

719-584 (1303)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$48.81

Value

$47.15

PnL

-$1.66

Record

53%

1851-1666 (3517)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$40.85

Value

$28.97

PnL

-$11.88

Record

50%

3301-3257 (6558)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$38.73

Value

$27.18

PnL

-$0.97

Record

55%

680-552 (1232)

sentrio<$100

Over

Invested

$26.89

Value

$22.41

PnL

-$4.48

Record

39%

394-619 (1013)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$50.88

Value

$14.04

PnL

-$2.8

Record

49%

692-733 (1425)

ameisgoat11<$100

Over

Invested

$7.65

Value

PnL

-$1.65

Record

34%

327-634 (961)

RLWG<$100

Over

Invested

$4.22

Value

$3.97

PnL

-$0.25

Record

67%

1661-814 (2475)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 69%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

11 of 16 top traders (69%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

82% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 88% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 80% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.0%

69.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$40.75

Max Loss

-$100.00

140.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.