Wizards vs. Thunder
38 of 50 top Polymarket traders hold Thunder (76%) · Thunder at 99¢ · $295K held · ended Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
Thunder
50
Thunder 76%
2 arb excluded
$294.8K
$4.8K
86.4¢ → 98.6¢
+14% since entry · 38 traders
Research grade
NeutralThunder at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
38 of 50 top traders (76%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 nigiri99 | Thunderavg 83.3¢ | $51.3K | $60.6K | +$9.3K | 46% 8770-10464 (19234) |
AC Aceplus3 | Thunderavg 88.9¢ | $42.1K | $37.2K | +$814.34 | 58% 41-30 (71) |
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465 | Thunderavg 83¢ | $26.1K | $31.0K | +$4.9K | 53% 6334-5615 (11949) |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e | Thunderavg 96¢ | $21.4K | $22.0K | +$566.55 | 58% 3248-2345 (5593) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Thunderavg 82.8¢ | $18.9K | $21.5K | +$2.6K | 54% 18557-15589 (34146) |
DA darkumbreon88 | Thunderavg 82¢ | $13.9K | $16.7K | +$2.8K | 64% 2043-1136 (3179) |
65 6512395314597884 | Thunderavg 84¢ | $20.2K | $13.7K | +$492.83 | 51% 5014-4884 (9898) |
WI winner877 | Thunderavg 95.1¢ | $10.0K | $10.1K | +$143.38 | 83% 1096-219 (1315) |
AN Anon455 | Thunderavg 82.5¢ | $9.9K | $10.0K | +$50 | 55% 3814-3145 (6959) |
 ElonSpam | Thunderavg 88.1¢ | $7.8K | $8.5K | +$738.41 | 40% 1571-2380 (3951) |
OJ ojg | Thunderavg 93.4¢ | $5.5K | $5.3K | -$142.89 | 43% 838-1096 (1934) |
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872 | Thunderavg 91.2¢ | $5.1K | $5.2K | +$44.98 | 56% 8738-6795 (15533) |
OM omnibus-076daa | Thunderavg 83¢ | $4.3K | $5.0K | +$626.84 | 50% 21821-22062 (43883) |
 nehcnehc | Thunderavg 83.7¢ | $4.8K | $4.8K | -$11.7 | 61% 4168-2636 (6804) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Thunderavg 87¢ | $7.6K | $4.7K | $-2.9K | 46% 1795-2102 (3897) |
HE henryttok | Thunderavg 89.1¢ | $3.9K | $3.9K | +$7.29 | 65% 197-104 (301) |
FL Flaznorp | Thunderavg 96.1¢ | $3.3K | $3.4K | +$85.82 | 51% 27272-25818 (53090) |
0X 0xfFFF6537 | Thunderavg 94.5¢ | $3.6K | $3.2K | -$367.77 | 49% 1142-1178 (2320) |
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2 | Thunderavg 92.7¢ | $3.0K | $3.0K | -$19.27 | 53% 14954-13478 (28432) |
NM NM-P | Thunderavg 82.7¢ | $2.9K | $3.0K | +$82.25 | 64% 10183-5729 (15912) |
GC GC-P | Thunderavg 82.7¢ | $2.9K | $3.0K | +$87.38 | 64% 10184-5783 (15967) |
 dips. | Thunderavg 96¢ | $2.8K | $2.9K | +$26.2 | 47% 11040-12658 (23698) |
38 38791873984189 | Thunderavg 83.9¢ | $3.4K | $2.0K | +$98.72 | 48% 63191-68207 (131398) |
PU purplegatto | Thunderavg 81.9¢ | $1.7K | $2.0K | +$343.24 | 49% 6418-6597 (13015) |
 VeryLucky888 | Thunderavg 83.1¢ | $6.1K | $2.0K | +$263.17 | 58% 47904-34520 (82424) |
nigiri99Invested
$51,281.06
Value
$60.6K
PnL
+$9.3K
Record
46%
8770-10464 (19234)
Invested
$42,061.26
Value
$37.2K
PnL
+$814.34
Record
58%
41-30 (71)
Invested
$26,124.8
Value
$31.0K
PnL
+$4.9K
Record
53%
6334-5615 (11949)
Invested
$21,446.34
Value
$22.0K
PnL
+$566.55
Record
58%
3248-2345 (5593)
Invested
$18,866.33
Value
$21.5K
PnL
+$2.6K
Record
54%
18557-15589 (34146)
Invested
$13,912.52
Value
$16.7K
PnL
+$2.8K
Record
64%
2043-1136 (3179)
Invested
$20,208.16
Value
$13.7K
PnL
+$492.83
Record
51%
5014-4884 (9898)
Invested
$9,964.61
Value
$10.1K
PnL
+$143.38
Record
83%
1096-219 (1315)
Invested
$9,949.99
Value
$10.0K
PnL
+$50
Record
55%
3814-3145 (6959)
ElonSpamInvested
$7,788.92
Value
$8.5K
PnL
+$738.41
Record
40%
1571-2380 (3951)
Invested
$5,463.23
Value
$5.3K
PnL
-$142.89
Record
43%
838-1096 (1934)
Invested
$5,117.61
Value
$5.2K
PnL
+$44.98
Record
56%
8738-6795 (15533)
Invested
$4,341.69
Value
$5.0K
PnL
+$626.84
Record
50%
21821-22062 (43883)
nehcnehcInvested
$4,767.18
Value
$4.8K
PnL
-$11.7
Record
61%
4168-2636 (6804)
Invested
$7,570.59
Value
$4.7K
PnL
$-2.9K
Record
46%
1795-2102 (3897)
Invested
$3,867.42
Value
$3.9K
PnL
+$7.29
Record
65%
197-104 (301)
Invested
$3,310.34
Value
$3.4K
PnL
+$85.82
Record
51%
27272-25818 (53090)
Invested
$3,608.4
Value
$3.2K
PnL
-$367.77
Record
49%
1142-1178 (2320)
Invested
$3,039.87
Value
$3.0K
PnL
-$19.27
Record
53%
14954-13478 (28432)
Invested
$2,910
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$82.25
Record
64%
10183-5729 (15912)
Invested
$2,904.86
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$87.38
Record
64%
10184-5783 (15967)
dips.Invested
$2,830.42
Value
$2.9K
PnL
+$26.2
Record
47%
11040-12658 (23698)
Invested
$3,411.89
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$98.72
Record
48%
63191-68207 (131398)
Invested
$1,686.66
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$343.24
Record
49%
6418-6597 (13015)
VeryLucky888Invested
$6,117.54
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$263.17
Record
58%
47904-34520 (82424)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
nigiri99
Thunder — $60.6K
Aceplus3
Thunder — $37.2K
0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465
Thunder — $31.0K
0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e
Thunder — $22.0K
HomeRunHazard
Thunder — $21.5K
darkumbreon88
Thunder — $16.7K
6512395314597884
Thunder — $13.7K
winner877
Thunder — $10.1K
Anon455
Thunder — $10.0K
ElonSpam
Thunder — $8.5K