Cowboys vs. Colts: O/U 50.5

12 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 68¢ · $35K held · ended Nov 8

Over33¢Under67¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 60%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$34.6K

Combined PnL

$3.9K

Smart Money Entry

44.6¢ → 67.5¢

+51% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 68%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

12 of 20 top traders (60%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over33%

Under68%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over8 traders

Total Value$13.5K

Total Shares22,501

Combined PnL+$1.4K

Under12 traders

Total Value$17.5K

Total Shares38,761

Combined PnL+$2.5K

Over — 40%Under — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+54 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

65% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 86% · 7

Aligned

ctrOver 50% · 14

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 63% · 19

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PEYZ-BIGGEST-FANCTR	Overavg 55¢	$11.0K	$12.5K	+$1.5K	51% 1024-996 (2020)
FE ferrariChampions2026	Underavg 46¢	$7.6K	$7.7K	+$103.2	46% 33351-38883 (72234)
LI LightParadox	Underavg 29¢	$1.9K	$3.7K	+$1.8K	48% 2081-2289 (4370)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Underavg 59.5¢	$2.9K	$3.4K	+$533.38	50% 5197-5095 (10292)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Overavg 53.2¢	$3.2K	$2.3K	+$5.52	48% 70249-75962 (146211)
└ Over leg	Overavg 53.2¢	$1.4K	$1.2K	-$201.95
└ Under leg	Underavg 45¢	$892.36	$1.1K	+$207.47
VeryLucky888	Underavg 45¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$45	59% 52363-37089 (89452)
JU justaluckydudeARB<$100	Overavg 60¢	$930.02	$949	+$18.98	53% 13661-12046 (25707)
└ Under leg	Underavg 38¢	$360.62	$536.19	+$175.56
└ Over leg	Overavg 60¢	$569.4	$412.82	-$156.58
RN1CTR	Overavg 43.6¢	$584.17	$542.49	-$41.68	53% 70182-61748 (131930)
HI hi774c	Underavg 44¢	$500	$535.71	+$35.71	46% 5617-6532 (12149)
0xheavy888	Underavg 45¢	$506.25	$421.88	-$84.38	56% 8753-6943 (15696)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Overavg 38.2¢	$277.62	$295.16	+$17.54	51% 5657-5508 (11165)
└ Over leg	Overavg 38.2¢	$156.93	$166.46	+$9.53
└ Under leg	Underavg 55.8¢	$120.69	$128.71	+$8.01
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Overavg 45.9¢	$245.39	$235.16	-$10.22	57% 17052-13027 (30079)
GC GC-P	Underavg 45¢	$183.12	$190.85	+$7.72	57% 22226-16583 (38809)
NM NM-P	Underavg 45¢	$500	$187.5	-$37.5	57% 22335-16609 (38944)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Underavg 46¢	$87.42	$107.37	+$19.95	50% 2205-2180 (4385)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Overavg 54¢	$76.69	$81.24	+$4.55	49% 8555-8731 (17286)
CUTJALENHURTSCTR<$100	Overavg 45¢	$98.55	$75.55	-$22.99	51% 6914-6557 (13471)
VE Venusian<$100	Underavg 45¢	$37.62	$56.43	+$18.81	48% 2117-2339 (4456)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Overavg 37¢	$56.71	$39.91	-$16.79	54% 3933-3292 (7225)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Overavg 59¢	$51.33	$37.85	-$13.49	52% 5538-5164 (10702)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 54¢	$28.9	$28.67	-$0.23	57% 24661-18268 (42929)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 45.4¢	$11.81	$14.69	+$2.88	52% 27203-24713 (51916)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Underavg 45¢	$2.45	$2.55	+$0.1	54% 19973-16852 (36825)

PEYZ-BIGGEST-FANCTR

Over

Invested

$10,999.95

Value

$12.5K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

51%

1024-996 (2020)

ferrariChampions2026

Under

Invested

$7,635.55

Value

$7.7K

PnL

+$103.2

Record

46%

33351-38883 (72234)

LightParadox

Under

Invested

$1,937.36

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$1.8K

Record

48%

2081-2289 (4370)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Under

Invested

$2,870.11

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$533.38

Record

50%

5197-5095 (10292)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$3,186.04

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$5.52

Record

48%

70249-75962 (146211)

Both legs:

Over$1,40153.2¢-$201.95

Under$892.3645¢+$207.47

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$1,080

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$45

Record

59%

52363-37089 (89452)

justaluckydudeARB<$100

Over

Invested

$930.02

Value

$949

PnL

+$18.98

Record

53%

13661-12046 (25707)

Both legs:

Under$360.6238¢+$175.56

Over$569.460¢-$156.58

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$584.17

Value

$542.49

PnL

-$41.68

Record

53%

70182-61748 (131930)

hi774c

Under

Invested

$500

Value

$535.71

PnL

+$35.71

Record

46%

5617-6532 (12149)

0xheavy888

Under

Invested

$506.25

Value

$421.88

PnL

-$84.38

Record

56%

8753-6943 (15696)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$277.62

Value

$295.16

PnL

+$17.54

Record

51%

5657-5508 (11165)

Both legs:

Over$156.9338.2¢+$9.53

Under$120.6955.8¢+$8.01

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Over

Invested

$245.39

Value

$235.16

PnL

-$10.22

Record

57%

17052-13027 (30079)

GC-P

Under

Invested

$183.12

Value

$190.85

PnL

+$7.72

Record

57%

22226-16583 (38809)

NM-P

Under

Invested

$500

Value

$187.5

PnL

-$37.5

Record

57%

22335-16609 (38944)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Under

Invested

$87.42

Value

$107.37

PnL

+$19.95

Record

50%

2205-2180 (4385)

RLWGCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$76.69

Value

$81.24

PnL

+$4.55

Record

49%

8555-8731 (17286)

CUTJALENHURTSCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$98.55

Value

$75.55

PnL

-$22.99

Record

51%

6914-6557 (13471)

Venusian<$100

Under

Invested

$37.62

Value

$56.43

PnL

+$18.81

Record

48%

2117-2339 (4456)

Anon455CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$56.71

Value

$39.91

PnL

-$16.79

Record

54%

3933-3292 (7225)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$51.33

Value

$37.85

PnL

-$13.49

Record

52%

5538-5164 (10702)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$28.9

Value

$28.67

PnL

-$0.23

Record

57%

24661-18268 (42929)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$11.81

Value

$14.69

PnL

+$2.88

Record

52%

27203-24713 (51916)

HomeRunHazard<$100

Under

Invested

$2.45

Value

$2.55

PnL

+$0.1

Record

54%

19973-16852 (36825)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 68%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

12 of 20 top traders (60%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+54 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

65% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 86% · 7

Aligned

ctrOver 50% · 14

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 63% · 19

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.6%

67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$43.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

143.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.