Spread: Giants (-5.5)

15 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold Eagles (71%) · Eagles at 77¢ · $70K held · ended Nov 8

Giants23¢Eagles77¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Eagles

Consensus Traders

Eagles 71%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$70.0K

Combined PnL

$198.68

Smart Money Entry

58.1¢ → 77¢

+32% since entry · 15 traders

Research grade

NeutralEagles at 77%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Eagles

15 of 21 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Giants23%

Eagles77%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Giants6 traders

Total Value$24.8K

Total Shares65,029

Combined PnL$-2.0K

Eagles15 traders

Total Value$41.0K

Total Shares66,121

Combined PnL+$2.2K

Giants — 29%Eagles — 71%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

70% of non-arb traders are on Eagles. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleEagles 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrEagles 67% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedEagles 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Eagles 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA takeormakeCTR	Giantsavg 41¢	$25.1K	$23.6K	$-1.5K	52% 5499-5133 (10632)
HO HomeRunHazard	Eaglesavg 59.1¢	$17.8K	$18.2K	+$407.66	54% 19942-16823 (36765)
BA Bagwell306	Eaglesavg 59¢	$6.1K	$6.0K	-$49.98	48% 4748-5241 (9989)
0x16bb9951a36fce71e2ef57890b786145e0ba8492	Eaglesavg 59¢	$9.6K	$5.8K	+$144.43	49% 807-840 (1647)
SU SunlineTickerARB<$100	Giantsavg 41¢	$4.2K	$4.1K	-$19.94	54% 5358-4572 (9930)
└ Eagles leg	Eaglesavg 59¢	$2.0K	$2.1K	+$17.34
└ Giants leg	Giantsavg 41¢	$2.1K	$2.0K	-$37.28
RN1	Eaglesavg 49¢	$2.0K	$3.0K	+$957.86	53% 70164-61737 (131901)
BI biying88888	Eaglesavg 59.7¢	$2.7K	$2.9K	+$113.45	48% 219-239 (458)
AN Anon455	Eaglesavg 54.5¢	$1.3K	$1.5K	+$286.92	55% 3933-3280 (7213)
VeryLucky888	Eaglesavg 58¢	$2.4K	$1.4K	+$59.19	59% 52299-37045 (89344)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Giantsavg 46.8¢	$1.4K	$984.27	-$453.79	50% 5167-5068 (10235)
38 38791873984189	Eaglesavg 50.4¢	$479.27	$626.8	+$147.53	48% 70219-75923 (146142)
65 6512395314597884	Eaglesavg 52¢	$394.31	$510.23	+$115.91	51% 5614-5443 (11057)
IC ic4cream	Eaglesavg 59¢	$293.41	$291.01	-$2.4	56% 2872-2262 (5134)
nigiri99	Eaglesavg 59¢	$262.55	$269.23	+$6.68	45% 14412-17706 (32118)
BA Bayupati	Eaglesavg 61.8¢	$212.97	$211.95	-$1.02	49% 280-287 (567)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Giantsavg 39¢	$155.99	$153.99	-$2	51% 2075-2021 (4096)
PR primm	Eaglesavg 59¢	$148.09	$143.07	-$5.02	47% 1426-1612 (3038)
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR	Giantsavg 45¢	$109.97	$87.98	-$21.99	46% 33216-38836 (72052)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Eaglesavg 57¢	$27.2	$33.88	+$6.68	50% 23433-23429 (46862)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Giantsavg 42.2¢	$66.26	$15.48	+$10.84	52% 27099-24604 (51703)
VE Venusian<$100	Eaglesavg 49¢	$4.9	$7.05	+$2.15	48% 2079-2257 (4336)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Giantsavg 31¢	$7.13	$5.75	-$1.38	53% 13621-12019 (25640)

takeormakeCTR

Giants

Invested

$25,104.22

Value

$23.6K

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

52%

5499-5133 (10632)

HomeRunHazard

Eagles

Invested

$17,796.03

Value

$18.2K

PnL

+$407.66

Record

54%

19942-16823 (36765)

Bagwell306

Eagles

Invested

$6,098.77

Value

$6.0K

PnL

-$49.98

Record

48%

4748-5241 (9989)

0x16bb9951a36fce71e2ef57890b786145e0ba8492

Eagles

Invested

$9,628.11

Value

$5.8K

PnL

+$144.43

Record

49%

807-840 (1647)

SunlineTickerARB<$100

Giants

Invested

$4,155.67

Value

$4.1K

PnL

-$19.94

Record

54%

5358-4572 (9930)

Both legs:

Eagles$2,045.1859¢+$17.34

Giants$2,113.5441¢-$37.28

RN1

Eagles

Invested

$1,997.24

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$957.86

Record

53%

70164-61737 (131901)

biying88888

Eagles

Invested

$2,676.91

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$113.45

Record

48%

219-239 (458)

Anon455

Eagles

Invested

$1,257.72

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$286.92

Record

55%

3933-3280 (7213)

VeryLucky888

Eagles

Invested

$2,367.77

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$59.19

Record

59%

52299-37045 (89344)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Giants

Invested

$1,438.06

Value

$984.27

PnL

-$453.79

Record

50%

5167-5068 (10235)

38791873984189

Eagles

Invested

$479.27

Value

$626.8

PnL

+$147.53

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

6512395314597884

Eagles

Invested

$394.31

Value

$510.23

PnL

+$115.91

Record

51%

5614-5443 (11057)

ic4cream

Eagles

Invested

$293.41

Value

$291.01

PnL

-$2.4

Record

56%

2872-2262 (5134)

nigiri99

Eagles

Invested

$262.55

Value

$269.23

PnL

+$6.68

Record

45%

14412-17706 (32118)

Bayupati

Eagles

Invested

$212.97

Value

$211.95

PnL

-$1.02

Record

49%

280-287 (567)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Giants

Invested

$155.99

Value

$153.99

PnL

-$2

Record

51%

2075-2021 (4096)

primm

Eagles

Invested

$148.09

Value

$143.07

PnL

-$5.02

Record

47%

1426-1612 (3038)

ferrariChampions2026CTR

Giants

Invested

$109.97

Value

$87.98

PnL

-$21.99

Record

46%

33216-38836 (72052)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Eagles

Invested

$27.2

Value

$33.88

PnL

+$6.68

Record

50%

23433-23429 (46862)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Giants

Invested

$66.26

Value

$15.48

PnL

+$10.84

Record

52%

27099-24604 (51703)

Venusian<$100

Eagles

Invested

$4.9

Value

$7.05

PnL

+$2.15

Record

48%

2079-2257 (4336)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Giants

Invested

$7.13

Value

$5.75

PnL

-$1.38

Record

53%

13621-12019 (25640)

Research grade

NeutralEagles at 77%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Eagles

15 of 21 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

70% of non-arb traders are on Eagles. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleEagles 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrEagles 67% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedEagles 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Eagles 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Eagles wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance78.9%

77.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.81

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.