Eagles vs. Commanders: O/U 40.5

6 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Over (43%) · Over at 57¢ · $170K held · ended Nov 2

Over57¢Under43¢Ended Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 43%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$170.2K

Combined PnL

$-11.5K

Smart Money Entry

51.1¢ → 57.5¢

+13% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 57%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 14 top traders (43%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over57%

Under43%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$62.8K

Total Shares145,405

Combined PnL$-11.5K

Under8 traders

Total Value$10.3K

Total Shares21,385

Combined PnL-$56.57

Over — 43%Under — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

42% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 80% · 5

Diverging

sharpUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrOver 50% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 58% · 12

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186ARB<$100	Overavg 51¢	$175.9K	$87.9K	-$924.43	46% 464-536 (1000)
└ Under leg	Underavg 50¢	$43.8K	$51.3K	+$7.5K
└ Over leg	Overavg 51¢	$45.0K	$36.6K	$-8.4K
PW Pwaddler	Overavg 51¢	$82.8K	$34.4K	$-7.9K	48% 420-459 (879)
SI sinasinner	Overavg 51¢	$30.6K	$27.0K	$-3.6K	46% 29-34 (63)
heyboy800CTR	Underavg 49¢	$5.4K	$4.9K	-$501.36	61% 982-618 (1600)
HE HerdoniaARB<$100	Underavg 50¢	$4.3K	$4.7K	+$401.34	54% 3421-2973 (6394)
└ Under leg	Underavg 50¢	$3.2K	$3.7K	+$506.8
└ Over leg	Overavg 49.6¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$105.47
0X 0x0A77exmmARB<$100	Underavg 49.5¢	$9.1K	$4.5K	+$31.22	54% 2343-2035 (4378)
└ Under leg	Underavg 49.5¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	-$30
└ Over leg	Overavg 49¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$61.22
JustADonkCTR	Underavg 50¢	$2.5K	$2.9K	+$400	55% 901-747 (1648)
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Underavg 37.5¢	$817.89	$815.31	-$2.58	53% 11064-9650 (20714)
0xheavy888CTR	Underavg 50¢	$562.5	$658.13	+$95.63	55% 7377-5931 (13308)
RN1	Overavg 56.5¢	$601.15	$643.99	+$42.84	54% 57411-49690 (107101)
CA cavvvyCTR	Underavg 47¢	$1.2K	$609.58	+$30.79	— 11-7 (18)
PR primm	Overavg 55¢	$552.1	$527.08	-$25.02	46% 1140-1317 (2457)
DR DreamwireCTR	Underavg 49¢	$490	$315	-$86.2	83% 2689-539 (3228)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks	Overavg 53¢	$489	$251.84	-$7.33	54% 3115-2681 (5796)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Underavg 48.8¢	$78.95	$46.19	+$7.65	51% 6105-5831 (11936)
TA takeormake<$100	Overavg 60.7¢	$25	$25.55	+$0.55	53% 4301-3748 (8049)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Underavg 51¢	$24.48	$24	-$0.48	57% 29397-21742 (51139)

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$175,895.06

Value

$87.9K

PnL

-$924.43

Record

46%

464-536 (1000)

Both legs:

Under$43,848.6550¢+$7.5K

Over$44,972.0451¢$-8.4K

Pwaddler

Over

Invested

$82,817.41

Value

$34.4K

PnL

$-7.9K

Record

48%

420-459 (879)

sinasinner

Over

Invested

$30,600

Value

$27.0K

PnL

$-3.6K

Record

46%

29-34 (63)

heyboy800CTR

Under

Invested

$5,443.93

Value

$4.9K

PnL

-$501.36

Record

61%

982-618 (1600)

HerdoniaARB<$100

Under

Invested

$4,281.3

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$401.34

Record

54%

3421-2973 (6394)

Both legs:

Under$3,152.2650¢+$506.8

Over$1,129.0449.6¢-$105.47

0x0A77exmmARB<$100

Under

Invested

$9,122

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$31.22

Record

54%

2343-2035 (4378)

Both legs:

Under$2,999.5949.5¢-$30

Over$1,499.8949¢+$61.22

JustADonkCTR

Under

Invested

$2,500

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$400

Record

55%

901-747 (1648)

justaluckydudeCTR

Under

Invested

$817.89

Value

$815.31

PnL

-$2.58

Record

53%

11064-9650 (20714)

0xheavy888CTR

Under

Invested

$562.5

Value

$658.13

PnL

+$95.63

Record

55%

7377-5931 (13308)

RN1

Over

Invested

$601.15

Value

$643.99

PnL

+$42.84

Record

54%

57411-49690 (107101)

cavvvyCTR

Under

Invested

$1,231.47

Value

$609.58

PnL

+$30.79

Record

—

11-7 (18)

primm

Over

Invested

$552.1

Value

$527.08

PnL

-$25.02

Record

46%

1140-1317 (2457)

DreamwireCTR

Under

Invested

$490

Value

$315

PnL

-$86.2

Record

83%

2689-539 (3228)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks

Over

Invested

$489

Value

$251.84

PnL

-$7.33

Record

54%

3115-2681 (5796)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$78.95

Value

$46.19

PnL

+$7.65

Record

51%

6105-5831 (11936)

takeormake<$100

Over

Invested

$25

Value

$25.55

PnL

+$0.55

Record

53%

4301-3748 (8049)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$24.48

Value

$24

PnL

-$0.48

Record

57%

29397-21742 (51139)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 57%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 14 top traders (43%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

42% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 80% · 5

Diverging

sharpUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrOver 50% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 58% · 12

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.7%

57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$67.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

167.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.