Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (98%). 11 of 20 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Wild vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5

11 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold Over (55%) · Over at 1.6¢ · $33K held · ended Nov 11

Over2¢Under98¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 55%

Total Value

$33.2K

Combined PnL

$-25.5K

Smart Money Entry

47.3¢ → 1.6¢

-97% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

11 of 20 top traders (55%)Underdog side (market favors Under 98%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over2%

Under98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under9 traders

Total Value$25.2K

Total Shares26,050

Combined PnL+$11.2K

Over11 traders

Total Value$8.1K

Total Shares91,376

Combined PnL$-36.7K

Under — 45%Over — 55%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-12 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

47% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 54% · 13

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 50% · 16

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Underavg 50.5¢	$6.9K	$13.1K	+$6.2K	47% 500-558 (1058)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 51.2¢	$2.0K	$3.8K	+$1.8K	51% 300-292 (592)
0xheavy888	Underavg 51.8¢	$2.2K	$3.1K	+$874.6	55% 120-97 (217)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Overavg 46¢	$6.7K	$2.8K	$-3.9K	57% 3074-2312 (5386)
FO forecastication4CTR	Overavg 43¢	$5.1K	$2.4K	$-2.7K	11% 24-189 (213)
VI vibing123	Underavg 51¢	$1.1K	$2.1K	+$1.0K	63% 1078-642 (1720)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Underavg 52¢	$1.0K	$2.0K	+$928	10% 88-785 (873)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Overavg 43¢	$2.2K	$1.0K	$-1.2K	41% 113-161 (274)
nigiri99CTR	Overavg 49.3¢	$19.3K	$627.04	$-18.7K	—
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 44.5¢	$1.1K	$562.23	-$19.39	48% 949-1019 (1968)
LI LightParadox	Underavg 50¢	$259.94	$511.55	+$251.62	28% 275-716 (991)
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 62.7¢	$327.3	$445.97	+$120.35	50% 1504-1508 (3012)
PU purplegattoCTR	Overavg 48.4¢	$9.7K	$320.9	$-9.4K	69% 2573-1166 (3739)
HI hi774cCTR	Overavg 44¢	$463.41	$210.64	-$252.77	8% 37-422 (459)
BI biying88888<$100	Underavg 50¢	$36.5	$71.83	+$35.33	27% 63-170 (233)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Overavg 45.4¢	$585.15	$51.56	-$533.59	48% 190-206 (396)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 52.3¢	$45.84	$46.64	+$8.15	49% 444-470 (914)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 44.9¢	$43.64	$19.09	-$15.93	54% 383-322 (705)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Overavg 45¢	$2.25	$1	-$1.25	26% 181-519 (700)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Overavg 50¢	$7.5	$0.6	-$6.9	68% 1599-746 (2345)

Multicoloured-Serf

Under

Invested

$6,914.05

Value

$13.1K

PnL

+$6.2K

Record

47%

500-558 (1058)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$2,050

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$1.8K

Record

51%

300-292 (592)

0xheavy888

Under

Invested

$2,182.71

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$874.6

Record

55%

120-97 (217)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Over

Invested

$6,725.43

Value

$2.8K

PnL

$-3.9K

Record

57%

3074-2312 (5386)

forecastication4CTR

Over

Invested

$5,136.1

Value

$2.4K

PnL

$-2.7K

Record

11%

24-189 (213)

vibing123

Under

Invested

$1,092.42

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

63%

1078-642 (1720)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Under

Invested

$1,040

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$928

Record

10%

88-785 (873)

LuckyLooCTR

Over

Invested

$2,225.32

Value

$1.0K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

41%

113-161 (274)

nigiri99CTR

Over

Invested

$19,318.21

Value

$627.04

PnL

$-18.7K

Record

—

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$1,148.37

Value

$562.23

PnL

-$19.39

Record

48%

949-1019 (1968)

LightParadox

Under

Invested

$259.94

Value

$511.55

PnL

+$251.62

Record

28%

275-716 (991)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$327.3

Value

$445.97

PnL

+$120.35

Record

50%

1504-1508 (3012)

purplegattoCTR

Over

Invested

$9,715.16

Value

$320.9

PnL

$-9.4K

Record

69%

2573-1166 (3739)

hi774cCTR

Over

Invested

$463.41

Value

$210.64

PnL

-$252.77

Record

37-422 (459)

biying88888<$100

Under

Invested

$36.5

Value

$71.83

PnL

+$35.33

Record

27%

63-170 (233)

SnakeBallCTR

Over

Invested

$585.15

Value

$51.56

PnL

-$533.59

Record

48%

190-206 (396)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$45.84

Value

$46.64

PnL

+$8.15

Record

49%

444-470 (914)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$43.64

Value

$19.09

PnL

-$15.93

Record

54%

383-322 (705)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.25

Value

PnL

-$1.25

Record

26%

181-519 (700)

RLWGCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$7.5

Value

$0.6

PnL

-$6.9

Record

68%

1599-746 (2345)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

11 of 20 top traders (55%)Underdog side (market favors Under 98%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-12 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

47% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 54% · 13

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 50% · 16

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance2.7%

1.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3567.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

3667.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.