Sharks vs. Kings: O/U 6.5

16 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Over (84%) · Over at 76¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 5

Over76¢Under24¢Ended Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 84%

Total Value

$8.4K

Combined PnL

$121.73

Smart Money Entry

46.9¢ → 75.5¢

+61% since entry · 16 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 76%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

16 of 19 top traders (84%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over76%

Under25%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over16 traders

Total Value$8.0K

Total Shares16,206

Combined PnL+$145.44

Under3 traders

Total Value$442.22

Total Shares918

Combined PnL-$23.72

Over — 84%Under — 16%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 100% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Overavg 46.2¢	$1.8K	$1.7K	+$58.73	54% 18061-15195 (33256)
VE Venusian	Overavg 46.2¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$37.79	51% 1246-1188 (2434)
AN AnonymousUsername	Overavg 45¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$0	71% 7162-2905 (10067)
38 38791873984189	Overavg 46.7¢	$844.99	$982.24	+$149.27	48% 59829-63853 (123682)
BA Bagwell306	Overavg 46.2¢	$924.75	$900	-$24.75	57% 4173-3145 (7318)
0xheavy888	Overavg 45¢	$495	$495	+$27.5	56% 7792-6241 (14033)
RN1	Overavg 48.8¢	$380.72	$351.14	-$29.58	53% 60353-52756 (113109)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Overavg 59.4¢	$356.93	$327.52	-$29.41	46% 1423-1681 (3104)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR	Underavg 54.2¢	$307.05	$311.32	+$4.27	53% 3407-2966 (6373)
3C 0x3ca9...424a	Overavg 53.2¢	$185.7	$185.07	-$0.63	50% 4211-4243 (8454)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Overavg 48.2¢	$197.09	$183.83	-$13.26	51% 1843-1768 (3611)
TO topdogbigboi	Overavg 48.9¢	$130.14	$143.69	+$13.55	47% 11271-12651 (23922)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 47.7¢	$113.24	$67.7	-$45.54	51% 24552-23218 (47770)
0X 0x8f121cc492d8fef3e6ba3a51e33d6c4b5afaeeb9CTR<$100	Underavg 39.7¢	$45.66	$63.21	+$17.55	48% 568-626 (1194)
DI dips.<$100	Overavg 49¢	$37.25	$41.42	+$4.17	47% 10457-11924 (22381)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Overavg 47.7¢	$19.1	$18	-$1.1	61% 2451-1573 (4024)
DA dabossrealman	Overavg 50¢	$426.17	$14.41	+$29.8	61% 2651-1680 (4331)
poshposh<$100	Overavg 65¢	$6.02	$4.95	-$1.06	57% 12452-9512 (21964)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Overavg 45¢	$2.25	$2.25	+$0	52% 8633-7856 (16489)

HomeRunHazard

Over

Invested

$1,788.28

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$58.73

Record

54%

18061-15195 (33256)

Venusian

Over

Invested

$1,411.82

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$37.79

Record

51%

1246-1188 (2434)

AnonymousUsername

Over

Invested

$1,210.94

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$0

Record

71%

7162-2905 (10067)

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$844.99

Value

$982.24

PnL

+$149.27

Record

48%

59829-63853 (123682)

Bagwell306

Over

Invested

$924.75

Value

$900

PnL

-$24.75

Record

57%

4173-3145 (7318)

0xheavy888

Over

Invested

$495

Value

$495

PnL

+$27.5

Record

56%

7792-6241 (14033)

RN1

Over

Invested

$380.72

Value

$351.14

PnL

-$29.58

Record

53%

60353-52756 (113109)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Over

Invested

$356.93

Value

$327.52

PnL

-$29.41

Record

46%

1423-1681 (3104)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR

Under

Invested

$307.05

Value

$311.32

PnL

+$4.27

Record

53%

3407-2966 (6373)

0x3ca9...424a

Over

Invested

$185.7

Value

$185.07

PnL

-$0.63

Record

50%

4211-4243 (8454)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Over

Invested

$197.09

Value

$183.83

PnL

-$13.26

Record

51%

1843-1768 (3611)

topdogbigboi

Over

Invested

$130.14

Value

$143.69

PnL

+$13.55

Record

47%

11271-12651 (23922)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$113.24

Value

$67.7

PnL

-$45.54

Record

51%

24552-23218 (47770)

0x8f121cc492d8fef3e6ba3a51e33d6c4b5afaeeb9CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$45.66

Value

$63.21

PnL

+$17.55

Record

48%

568-626 (1194)

dips.<$100

Over

Invested

$37.25

Value

$41.42

PnL

+$4.17

Record

47%

10457-11924 (22381)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Over

Invested

$19.1

Value

$18

PnL

-$1.1

Record

61%

2451-1573 (4024)

dabossrealman

Over

Invested

$426.17

Value

$14.41

PnL

+$29.8

Record

61%

2651-1680 (4331)

poshposh<$100

Over

Invested

$6.02

Value

$4.95

PnL

-$1.06

Record

57%

12452-9512 (21964)

ameisgoat11<$100

Over

Invested

$2.25

Value

$2.25

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

8633-7856 (16489)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 76%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

16 of 19 top traders (84%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 100% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.4%

75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$29.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

129.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.