Will CF Estrela da Amadora win on 2026-11-08?

19 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold No (90%) · No at 98¢ · $14K held · ended Nov 8

Yes2¢No98¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 90%

Total Value

$14.2K

Combined PnL

$142.84

Smart Money Entry

93.7¢ → 98.4¢

+5% since entry · 19 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

19 of 21 top traders (90%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No19 traders

Total Value$14.2K

Total Shares14,391

Combined PnL+$141.24

Yes2 traders

Total Value$17.67

Total Shares1,068

Combined PnL+$1.61

No — 90%Yes — 10%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 51%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

91% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 51% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrNo 88% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 90% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 92.4¢	$611.27	$4.0K	+$209.73	51% 47280-44570 (91850)
GC GC-P	Noavg 92.6¢	$1.7K	$1.6K	+$4.21	57% 22242-16601 (38843)
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 96¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$38.04	46% 30579-35678 (66257)
NM NM-P	Noavg 92.6¢	$1.6K	$1.5K	+$13.87	58% 22563-16669 (39232)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 95.2¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$36.3	50% 48590-48183 (96773)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 96.9¢	$1.1K	$859.89	-$213.3	50% 32573-32704 (65277)
38 38791873984189	Noavg 93.9¢	$848	$787.63	+$33.63	48% 70290-75979 (146269)
RN1	Noavg 94¢	$669.04	$710.47	+$41.43	53% 70213-61793 (132006)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Noavg 94¢	$384	$401.77	+$17.77	50% 2215-2187 (4402)
0xheavy888	Noavg 92.5¢	$400	$374	+$4	56% 8773-6961 (15734)
VE Venusian	Noavg 95.7¢	$383.18	$305.76	-$77.42	47% 2177-2413 (4590)
PA Pan9X	Noavg 95.2¢	$460.13	$291.42	+$12.8	52% 27270-24782 (52052)
LI LightParadox	Noavg 94¢	$223.26	$233.59	+$10.33	47% 2124-2359 (4483)
FO forecastication4	Noavg 92¢	$183.94	$171.98	+$2.76	50% 1567-1581 (3148)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 92¢	$50.24	$46.97	+$0.75	50% 27958-27406 (55364)
AR ARocky33<$100	Noavg 95.2¢	$38.1	$37.4	-$0.69	76% 4895-1518 (6413)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 93¢	$26.57	$28.1	+$1.53	32% 21156-45383 (66539)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 93¢	$381.2	$21.13	+$5.13	59% 52401-37126 (89527)
LO lonmi2511CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.5¢	$16	$17.6	+$1.6	52% 1531-1411 (2942)
RI RichieRicher<$100	Noavg 94¢	$8.06	$8.43	+$0.37	55% 841-699 (1540)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Yesavg 7¢	$0.06	$0.07	+$0.01	52% 9515-8627 (18142)

Flaznorp

Invested

$611.27

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$209.73

Record

51%

47280-44570 (91850)

GC-P

Invested

$1,709.88

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$4.21

Record

57%

22242-16601 (38843)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$1,555.26

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$38.04

Record

46%

30579-35678 (66257)

NM-P

Invested

$1,625.05

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$13.87

Record

58%

22563-16669 (39232)

SnakeBall

Invested

$1,111.57

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$36.3

Record

50%

48590-48183 (96773)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$1,073.19

Value

$859.89

PnL

-$213.3

Record

50%

32573-32704 (65277)

38791873984189

Invested

$848

Value

$787.63

PnL

+$33.63

Record

48%

70290-75979 (146269)

RN1

Invested

$669.04

Value

$710.47

PnL

+$41.43

Record

53%

70213-61793 (132006)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Invested

$384

Value

$401.77

PnL

+$17.77

Record

50%

2215-2187 (4402)

0xheavy888

Invested

$400

Value

$374

PnL

+$4

Record

56%

8773-6961 (15734)

Venusian

Invested

$383.18

Value

$305.76

PnL

-$77.42

Record

47%

2177-2413 (4590)

Pan9X

Invested

$460.13

Value

$291.42

PnL

+$12.8

Record

52%

27270-24782 (52052)

LightParadox

Invested

$223.26

Value

$233.59

PnL

+$10.33

Record

47%

2124-2359 (4483)

forecastication4

Invested

$183.94

Value

$171.98

PnL

+$2.76

Record

50%

1567-1581 (3148)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$50.24

Value

$46.97

PnL

+$0.75

Record

50%

27958-27406 (55364)

ARocky33<$100

Invested

$38.1

Value

$37.4

PnL

-$0.69

Record

76%

4895-1518 (6413)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$26.57

Value

$28.1

PnL

+$1.53

Record

32%

21156-45383 (66539)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$381.2

Value

$21.13

PnL

+$5.13

Record

59%

52401-37126 (89527)

lonmi2511CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16

Value

$17.6

PnL

+$1.6

Record

52%

1531-1411 (2942)

RichieRicher<$100

Invested

$8.06

Value

$8.43

PnL

+$0.37

Record

55%

841-699 (1540)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.06

Value

$0.07

PnL

+$0.01

Record

52%

9515-8627 (18142)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

19 of 21 top traders (90%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 51%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

91% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 51% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrNo 88% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 90% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.4%

98.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.62

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.