Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (51%). 15 of 24 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-11-03?

15 of 24 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 50¢ · $17K held · ends Nov 3

Yes51¢No49¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 63%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$17.4K

Combined PnL

$154.4

Smart Money Entry

48.5¢ → 49.5¢

+2% since entry · 15 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 50%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

15 of 24 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 51%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes51%

No50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No15 traders

Total Value$10.0K

Total Shares20,303

Combined PnL+$197.72

Yes9 traders

Total Value$4.4K

Total Shares8,696

Combined PnL-$43.31

No — 63%Yes — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 46%

Freshness

Mature

28h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

61% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 46% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 6

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 53% · 15

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 61% · 23

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 48.3¢	$3.2K	$3.3K	+$80.21	51% 23350-22134 (45484)
AN AnonymousUsernameARB<$100	Yesavg 51.4¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	+$10.23	71% 6979-2788 (9767)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 51.4¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	-$41.12
└ No leg	Noavg 46¢	$674.82	$718.83	+$51.35
HY hydra1248	Yesavg 51.3¢	$2.1K	$2.0K	-$31.84	65% 48-26 (74)
KY Kyn008CTR	Noavg 49¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$15.24	49% 277-290 (567)
0X 0x8Bb006d1bB8b1C5735DA79E81637e3dad6E3ca79-1768601841360CTR	Noavg 49.7¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$5.85	46% 144-172 (316)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Noavg 49.5¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$1	52% 808-754 (1562)
GO GoalLineGhost	Yesavg 50¢	$2.0K	$992.24	+$9.35	50% 27131-27060 (54191)
FE ferdinand2CTR	Noavg 48¢	$851.57	$869.31	+$26.61	48% 6134-6542 (12676)
DA darkumbreon88	Yesavg 52¢	$772	$757.37	-$14.64	64% 1844-1024 (2868)
CA CannaeCTR	Noavg 47.5¢	$598.17	$623.48	+$25.3	53% 16363-14532 (30895)
SU surfandturfCTR	Noavg 47¢	$323.42	$337.18	+$17.2	50% 316-315 (631)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Noavg 49¢	$255.8	$258.41	+$2.61	50% 35477-34953 (70430)
leflaive	Yesavg 52¢	$260	$255	-$7.5	42% 1205-1642 (2847)
nigiri99	Yesavg 50¢	$246	$248.46	+$2.46	46% 8222-9595 (17817)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Noavg 48¢	$210.48	$217.06	+$6.58	53% 883-772 (1655)
HRTradingCTR	Noavg 48.1¢	$136.15	$138.68	+$6.78	51% 7310-7059 (14369)
38 38791873984189CTR	Noavg 48¢	$102.9	$104.85	+$1.95	48% 14339-15840 (30179)
P1 P1kasoCTR<$100	Noavg 41¢	$67.04	$80.94	+$13.9	63% 763-457 (1220)
SU suntori<$100	Yesavg 51.2¢	$66.89	$66.01	-$0.89	45% 13592-16514 (30106)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 46.6¢	$62.67	$65.88	+$5.23	57% 18305-13557 (31862)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 49.2¢	$52.96	$53.25	+$0.29	50% 25211-24910 (50121)
FO Forecastication2<$100	Yesavg 50¢	$38	$38.76	+$0.38	50% 7346-7476 (14822)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Noavg 48¢	$21.6	$22.05	+$0.68	56% 915-719 (1634)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100	Yesavg 57¢	$4.9	$4.39	-$0.56	53% 2336-2055 (4391)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Yesavg 52¢	$2.6	$2.55	-$0.08	52% 8430-7691 (16121)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$3,212.15

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$80.21

Record

51%

23350-22134 (45484)

AnonymousUsernameARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$2,989.95

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$10.23

Record

71%

6979-2788 (9767)

Both legs:

Yes$2,315.1351.4¢-$41.12

No$674.8246¢+$51.35

hydra1248

Yes

Invested

$2,069.09

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$31.84

Record

65%

48-26 (74)

Kyn008CTR

Invested

$1,493.13

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$15.24

Record

49%

277-290 (567)

0x8Bb006d1bB8b1C5735DA79E81637e3dad6E3ca79-1768601841360CTR

Invested

$1,250

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$5.85

Record

46%

144-172 (316)

MadridTimeCTR

Invested

$1,220.05

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$1

Record

52%

808-754 (1562)

GoalLineGhost

Yes

Invested

$1,964.83

Value

$992.24

PnL

+$9.35

Record

50%

27131-27060 (54191)

ferdinand2CTR

Invested

$851.57

Value

$869.31

PnL

+$26.61

Record

48%

6134-6542 (12676)

darkumbreon88

Yes

Invested

$772

Value

$757.37

PnL

-$14.64

Record

64%

1844-1024 (2868)

CannaeCTR

Invested

$598.17

Value

$623.48

PnL

+$25.3

Record

53%

16363-14532 (30895)

surfandturfCTR

Invested

$323.42

Value

$337.18

PnL

+$17.2

Record

50%

316-315 (631)

SnakeBallCTR

Invested

$255.8

Value

$258.41

PnL

+$2.61

Record

50%

35477-34953 (70430)

leflaive

Yes

Invested

$260

Value

$255

PnL

-$7.5

Record

42%

1205-1642 (2847)

nigiri99

Yes

Invested

$246

Value

$248.46

PnL

+$2.46

Record

46%

8222-9595 (17817)

LightParadoxCTR

Invested

$210.48

Value

$217.06

PnL

+$6.58

Record

53%

883-772 (1655)

HRTradingCTR

Invested

$136.15

Value

$138.68

PnL

+$6.78

Record

51%

7310-7059 (14369)

38791873984189CTR

Invested

$102.9

Value

$104.85

PnL

+$1.95

Record

48%

14339-15840 (30179)

P1kasoCTR<$100

Invested

$67.04

Value

$80.94

PnL

+$13.9

Record

63%

763-457 (1220)

suntori<$100

Yes

Invested

$66.89

Value

$66.01

PnL

-$0.89

Record

45%

13592-16514 (30106)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$62.67

Value

$65.88

PnL

+$5.23

Record

57%

18305-13557 (31862)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$52.96

Value

$53.25

PnL

+$0.29

Record

50%

25211-24910 (50121)

Forecastication2<$100

Yes

Invested

$38

Value

$38.76

PnL

+$0.38

Record

50%

7346-7476 (14822)

LimousinCTR<$100

Invested

$21.6

Value

$22.05

PnL

+$0.68

Record

56%

915-719 (1634)

hedgevaultmainnet1<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.9

Value

$4.39

PnL

-$0.56

Record

53%

2336-2055 (4391)

ameisgoat11<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.6

Value

$2.55

PnL

-$0.08

Record

52%

8430-7691 (16121)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 50%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

15 of 24 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 51%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 46%

Freshness

Mature

28h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

61% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 46% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 6

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 53% · 15

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 61% · 23

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.7%

49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$93.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

193.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.