Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was No — and it was correct. Winning outcome: No
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw?
Resolved No. 69% of the top Polymarket traders held No. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
16
No 73%
3 arb excluded
$19.0K
$559.51
Smart Money Signal
11 of 16 top traders (69%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 88.1¢ | $8.7K | $9.2K | +$420.04 | 50% 1433-1435 (2868) |
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872 | Noavg 91.3¢ | $4.3K | $4.4K | +$135.19 | 56% 488-383 (871) |
 RN1 | Noavg 85.6¢ | $2.2K | $2.5K | +$359.93 | 58% 3771-2731 (6502) |
LI Limousin | Noavg 94.6¢ | $1.4K | $1.0K | -$341.21 | 26% 234-672 (906) |
LU LuckyLoo | Noavg 91.8¢ | $828.19 | $892.58 | +$64.4 | 43% 79-105 (184) |
MA MadridTimeARB<$100 | Yesavg 12.9¢ | $649.75 | $158.6 | -$491.15 | 26% 234-653 (887) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 87.8¢ | $139.18 | $158.6 | +$19.41 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 12.9¢ | $510.56 | — | -$510.56 | |
CI cigarettes | Noavg 97.2¢ | $236.92 | $243.71 | +$6.79 | 53% 5469-4897 (10366) |
 ZaiZoiBele | Noavg 96¢ | $163.12 | $170 | +$6.88 | 8% 19-223 (242) |
LI LightParadoxARB<$100 | Yesavg 9.2¢ | $348.81 | $38.7 | -$310.11 | 26% 234-663 (897) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 9.2¢ | $311.5 | — | -$311.5 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 96.4¢ | $37.31 | $38.7 | +$1.39 | |
AH aHjCz | Noavg 97.6¢ | $123.54 | $126.54 | +$3 | 26% 1205-3516 (4721) |
SU suitcase6628 | Noavg 96.4¢ | $108.1 | $100 | -$8.1 | 64% 170-94 (264) |
VE VenusianARB<$100 | Yesavg 19.6¢ | $321.1 | $50.87 | -$270.23 | 25% 228-679 (907) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 93.3¢ | $47.48 | $50.87 | +$3.39 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 19.6¢ | $273.62 | — | -$273.62 | |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Noavg 95¢ | $76 | $80 | +$4 | 47% 149-168 (317) |
 dips.CTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.8¢ | $64.25 | — | -$47.98 | 42% 217-300 (517) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $7.9 | $10 | +$2.1 | 32% 184-398 (582) |
 IIIllllllIIIIIIIllllllllIIIIIIIIIIIllllllCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.8¢ | $6.96 | — | -$6.96 | 0% 2-417 (419) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Yesavg 16¢ | $37.51 | — | -$37.51 | 57% 1516-1167 (2683) |
 machinelearnedCTR<$100 | Yesavg 11¢ | $0.56 | — | -$0.56 | 37% 389-659 (1048) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Yesavg 22¢ | $2.2 | — | -$0.5 | 50% 262-258 (520) |
Invested
$8,741.23
Value
$9.2K
PnL
+$420.04
Record
50%
1433-1435 (2868)
Invested
$4,268.49
Value
$4.4K
PnL
+$135.19
Record
56%
488-383 (871)
RN1Invested
$2,165.53
Value
$2.5K
PnL
+$359.93
Record
58%
3771-2731 (6502)
Invested
$1,361.21
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$341.21
Record
26%
234-672 (906)
Invested
$828.19
Value
$892.58
PnL
+$64.4
Record
43%
79-105 (184)
Invested
$649.75
Value
$158.6
PnL
-$491.15
Record
26%
234-653 (887)
Both legs:
Invested
$236.92
Value
$243.71
PnL
+$6.79
Record
53%
5469-4897 (10366)
ZaiZoiBeleInvested
$163.12
Value
$170
PnL
+$6.88
Record
8%
19-223 (242)
Invested
$348.81
Value
$38.7
PnL
-$310.11
Record
26%
234-663 (897)
Both legs:
Invested
$123.54
Value
$126.54
PnL
+$3
Record
26%
1205-3516 (4721)
Invested
$108.1
Value
$100
PnL
-$8.1
Record
64%
170-94 (264)
Invested
$321.1
Value
$50.87
PnL
-$270.23
Record
25%
228-679 (907)
Both legs:
Invested
$76
Value
$80
PnL
+$4
Record
47%
149-168 (317)
dips.CTR<$100Invested
$64.25
Value
—
PnL
-$47.98
Record
42%
217-300 (517)
Invested
$7.9
Value
$10
PnL
+$2.1
Record
32%
184-398 (582)
IIIllllllIIIIIIIllllllllIIIIIIIIIIIllllllCTR<$100Invested
$6.96
Value
—
PnL
-$6.96
Record
0%
2-417 (419)
Invested
$37.51
Value
—
PnL
-$37.51
Record
57%
1516-1167 (2683)
machinelearnedCTR<$100Invested
$0.56
Value
—
PnL
-$0.56
Record
37%
389-659 (1048)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$2.2
Value
—
PnL
-$0.5
Record
50%
262-258 (520)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
Flaznorp
No — $9.2K
0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872
No — $4.4K
RN1
No — $2.5K
Limousin
No — $1.0K
LuckyLoo
No — $892.58
MadridTime
ARBArbitrage — excluded
cigarettes
No — $243.71
ZaiZoiBele
No — $170
LightParadox
ARBArbitrage — excluded
aHjCz
No — $126.54