Will Colette Kress be the next CEO of NVIDIA?

7 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold No (39%) · No at 78¢ · $3K held · ends Jan 1, 2029

Yes22¢No78¢Ends Mon, Jan 1, 2029View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 39%

Total Value

$2.8K

Combined PnL

$369.07

Smart Money Entry

76¢ → 77.6¢

+2% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 78%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 18 top traders (39%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes22%

No78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares2,593

Combined PnL-$120.71

Yes11 traders

Total Value$888.98

Total Shares3,135

Combined PnL+$489.79

No — 39%Yes — 61%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 57% · 14

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x2a5ffc44aeb0aa4d1cdf41df7e6be60ed4476c92	Noavg 72.2¢	$714.96	$709.82	-$5.14	—
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 78.1¢	$746.36	$656.81	-$44.22	40% 3217-4824 (8041)
Parz1vaI	Noavg 79.6¢	$472.86	$425.9	-$46.96	73% 1113-422 (1535)
PEYZ-BIGGEST-FANCTR	Yesavg 29.3¢	$410.16	$408.81	-$1.35	1% 4-584 (588)
0xb7de57721ee931290e90bc0c8a9f38855130b802CTR	Yesavg 0.9¢	$282.44	$117.11	+$131.86	— 1-0 (1)
probabilityCTR	Yesavg 24.8¢	$88.09	$103.7	+$15.61	44% 11-14 (25)
SteveTheFishCTR<$100	Yesavg 7.1¢	$23.12	$95.34	+$72.22	—
HoshinoAI	Noavg 77.9¢	$620.76	$68.23	-$24.11	42% 13-18 (31)
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR	Yesavg 16.3¢	$106.77	$55.32	+$37.15	41% 13-19 (32)
realbengvirCTR<$100	Yesavg 30¢	$49.92	$48.72	-$1.2	— 0-15 (15)
LI lissartter<$100	Noavg 72¢	$40.86	$40.69	-$0.17	— 3-4 (7)
BI BiggggggggCTR	Yesavg 0.9¢	$322.78	$27.88	+$224.7	52% 1614-1484 (3098)
JO JordanMooney<$100	Noavg 73.5¢	$15.04	$15.87	+$0.83	— 9-0 (9)
Dr.mettCTR<$100	Yesavg 34.5¢	$13.81	$11.69	-$2.12	— 7-1 (8)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$9.05	$9.63	+$11.64	58% 446-318 (764)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 24.3¢	$9.44	$8.72	-$0.72	38% 58-96 (154)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F<$100	Noavg 91.2¢	$4.43	$3.48	-$0.95	2% 1-59 (60)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$0.07	$2.05	+$1.98	36% 506-908 (1414)

0x2a5ffc44aeb0aa4d1cdf41df7e6be60ed4476c92

Invested

$714.96

Value

$709.82

PnL

-$5.14

Record

—

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$746.36

Value

$656.81

PnL

-$44.22

Record

40%

3217-4824 (8041)

Parz1vaI

Invested

$472.86

Value

$425.9

PnL

-$46.96

Record

73%

1113-422 (1535)

PEYZ-BIGGEST-FANCTR

Yes

Invested

$410.16

Value

$408.81

PnL

-$1.35

Record

4-584 (588)

0xb7de57721ee931290e90bc0c8a9f38855130b802CTR

Yes

Invested

$282.44

Value

$117.11

PnL

+$131.86

Record

—

1-0 (1)

probabilityCTR

Yes

Invested

$88.09

Value

$103.7

PnL

+$15.61

Record

44%

11-14 (25)

SteveTheFishCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.12

Value

$95.34

PnL

+$72.22

Record

—

HoshinoAI

Invested

$620.76

Value

$68.23

PnL

-$24.11

Record

42%

13-18 (31)

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR

Yes

Invested

$106.77

Value

$55.32

PnL

+$37.15

Record

41%

13-19 (32)

realbengvirCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$49.92

Value

$48.72

PnL

-$1.2

Record

—

0-15 (15)

lissartter<$100

Invested

$40.86

Value

$40.69

PnL

-$0.17

Record

—

3-4 (7)

BiggggggggCTR

Yes

Invested

$322.78

Value

$27.88

PnL

+$224.7

Record

52%

1614-1484 (3098)

JordanMooney<$100

Invested

$15.04

Value

$15.87

PnL

+$0.83

Record

—

9-0 (9)

Dr.mettCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.81

Value

$11.69

PnL

-$2.12

Record

—

7-1 (8)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.05

Value

$9.63

PnL

+$11.64

Record

58%

446-318 (764)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.44

Value

$8.72

PnL

-$0.72

Record

38%

58-96 (154)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F<$100

Invested

$4.43

Value

$3.48

PnL

-$0.95

Record

1-59 (60)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.07

Value

$2.05

PnL

+$1.98

Record

36%

506-908 (1414)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 78%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 18 top traders (39%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 57% · 14

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.3%

77.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.