Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 17 of 17 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

17 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.5¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 8, 2028

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 8, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$2.6K

Combined PnL

$-1.9K

Smart Money Entry

1¢ → 0.5¢

-46% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

17 of 17 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)17 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes17 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares430,701

Combined PnL$-1.9K

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

17 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

266 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 8

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 11

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
mombilCTR	Yesavg 1.1¢	$898.74	$969.91	$-1.2K	55% 1191-966 (2157)
ImJustKenCTR	Yesavg 0.7¢	$813.76	$534.91	-$279.13	53% 3036-2716 (5752)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Yes	$474.61	$474.61	-$124.19	72% 6827-2621 (9448)
11 11122CTR	Yesavg 1¢	$136.6	$139.13	+$2.53	44% 1401-1817 (3218)
Q9 Q96s3kwozynxpauCTR	Yesavg 1.1¢	$90.74	$122.7	+$31.96	41% 166-240 (406)
TH The Spirit of Ukraine>UMACTR	Yesavg 0.7¢	$139.01	$112.66	-$26.36	67% 751-378 (1129)
FO FolletinCTR	Yesavg 3.5¢	$313.3	$48.42	-$264.88	69% 423-188 (611)
HE HerrieDavisCTR<$100	Yes	$41.09	$41.09	-$15.83	36% 2085-3721 (5806)
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$49.12	$34.63	-$14.56	47% 83-94 (177)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR	Yesavg 1.9¢	$116.21	$27.76	-$52.97	76% 11352-3524 (14876)
FA failstoberCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$1.67	$19.99	+$18.32	26% 351-985 (1336)
LI lissartterCTR	Yesavg 2.8¢	$359.2	$19.83	-$47.2	42% 5283-7233 (12516)
GollumGekkoCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$12.61	$13.2	+$1.01	68% 2074-957 (3031)
LO Logan.CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$1	$12	+$11	41% 648-925 (1573)
QualitativeCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$5.91	$9	+$2.34	58% 1153-825 (1978)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$1.04	$0.95	-$0.09	33% 6263-12990 (19253)
NO NoMoreMisterCTR	Yes	$1.1K	$0.27	+$0.25	76% 8934-2819 (11753)

mombilCTR

Yes

Invested

$898.74

Value

$969.91

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

55%

1191-966 (2157)

ImJustKenCTR

Yes

Invested

$813.76

Value

$534.91

PnL

-$279.13

Record

53%

3036-2716 (5752)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Yes

Invested

$474.61

Value

$474.61

PnL

-$124.19

Record

72%

6827-2621 (9448)

11122CTR

Yes

Invested

$136.6

Value

$139.13

PnL

+$2.53

Record

44%

1401-1817 (3218)

Q96s3kwozynxpauCTR

Yes

Invested

$90.74

Value

$122.7

PnL

+$31.96

Record

41%

166-240 (406)

The Spirit of Ukraine>UMACTR

Yes

Invested

$139.01

Value

$112.66

PnL

-$26.36

Record

67%

751-378 (1129)

FolletinCTR

Yes

Invested

$313.3

Value

$48.42

PnL

-$264.88

Record

69%

423-188 (611)

HerrieDavisCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$41.09

Value

$41.09

PnL

-$15.83

Record

36%

2085-3721 (5806)

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$49.12

Value

$34.63

PnL

-$14.56

Record

47%

83-94 (177)

Elias.ThornwellCTR

Yes

Invested

$116.21

Value

$27.76

PnL

-$52.97

Record

76%

11352-3524 (14876)

failstoberCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.67

Value

$19.99

PnL

+$18.32

Record

26%

351-985 (1336)

lissartterCTR

Yes

Invested

$359.2

Value

$19.83

PnL

-$47.2

Record

42%

5283-7233 (12516)

GollumGekkoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.61

Value

$13.2

PnL

+$1.01

Record

68%

2074-957 (3031)

Logan.CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$12

PnL

+$11

Record

41%

648-925 (1573)

QualitativeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.91

Value

PnL

+$2.34

Record

58%

1153-825 (1978)

wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.04

Value

$0.95

PnL

-$0.09

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

NoMoreMisterCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,108.48

Value

$0.27

PnL

+$0.25

Record

76%

8934-2819 (11753)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

17 of 17 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)17 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

17 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

266 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 8

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 11

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.6%

0.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6107.17

Max Loss

-$100.00

6207.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.