Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Robin Montgomery, while the market favors Janice Tjen (65%). 11 of 20 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Chennai Open: Janice Tjen vs Robin Montgomery

11 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold Robin Montgomery (55%) · Robin Montgomery at 35¢ · $21K held · ends Nov 14

Janice Tjen65¢Robin Montgomery35¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Robin Montgomery

Consensus Traders

Robin Montgomery 55%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$21.1K

Combined PnL

$-2.2K

Smart Money Entry

40.9¢ → 35¢

-14% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralRobin Montgomery at 35%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Robin Montgomery

11 of 20 top traders (55%)Underdog side (market favors Janice Tjen 65%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Janice Tjen65%

Robin Montgomery35%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Robin Montgomery11 traders

Total Value$13.6K

Total Shares38,978

Combined PnL$-2.3K

Janice Tjen9 traders

Total Value$7.1K

Total Shares11,336

Combined PnL+$62.77

Robin Montgomery — 55%Janice Tjen — 45%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MO monkeymashingkeyboardCTR	Robin Montgomeryavg 41.1¢	$8.2K	$7.0K	$-1.2K	53% 667-585 (1252)
MA MadridTime	Janice Tjenavg 61.2¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	+$33.54	48% 1775-1911 (3686)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Robin Montgomeryavg 40.8¢	$3.2K	$2.7K	-$449.76	49% 1800-1900 (3700)
0xheavy888	Janice Tjenavg 59.2¢	$2.4K	$2.5K	+$130	56% 8223-6528 (14751)
PL pltrkr111CTR	Robin Montgomeryavg 40¢	$2.0K	$1.7K	-$250	55% 790-658 (1448)
VeryLucky888	Janice Tjenavg 59.3¢	$894.49	$929.99	+$40.07	58% 47503-34297 (81800)
TH thestingsnakeCTR	Robin Montgomeryavg 52.7¢	$1.2K	$789.1	-$398.67	60% 4530-3029 (7559)
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR	Robin Montgomeryavg 41.2¢	$621.46	$527.94	-$93.52	42% 8168-11360 (19528)
EU EulhunterCTR	Robin Montgomeryavg 28.8¢	$359.72	$437.5	+$77.78	54% 6325-5389 (11714)
OJ ojg	Janice Tjenavg 97.5¢	$395.01	$263.25	-$131.76	43% 838-1096 (1934)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Robin Montgomeryavg 28¢	$209.89	$262.5	+$52.61	51% 2058-1996 (4054)
1L 1lovejumpARB<$100	Janice Tjenavg 63.3¢	$674.87	$249.94	+$63.47	53% 827-732 (1559)
└ Janice Tjen leg	Janice Tjenavg 63.3¢	$169.1	$165.53	+$54.13
└ Robin Montgomery leg	Robin Montgomeryavg 31.1¢	$75.07	$84.41	+$9.34
VE Venusian	Janice Tjenavg 63.7¢	$195.91	$190.91	-$5	49% 1843-1935 (3778)
tradecraft<$100	Janice Tjenavg 61.2¢	$97.92	$99.2	+$1.28	51% 6512-6277 (12789)
MR MrBently	Janice Tjenavg 64.2¢	$102.02	$98.58	-$3.44	52% 614-558 (1172)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Robin Montgomeryavg 40¢	$90.25	$78.97	-$11.28	50% 26409-26025 (52434)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0ARB<$100	Janice Tjenavg 65.5¢	$62.25	$63.45	+$1.2	64% 5376-2995 (8371)
└ Janice Tjen leg	Janice Tjenavg 65.5¢	$39.3	$37.2	-$2.1
└ Robin Montgomery leg	Robin Montgomeryavg 30.6¢	$22.95	$26.25	+$3.3
nigiri99CTR<$100	Robin Montgomeryavg 41.3¢	$73.86	$62.65	-$11.21	46% 8770-10463 (19233)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Janice Tjenavg 70.1¢	$17.51	$15.5	-$2.01	57% 19424-14373 (33797)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Robin Montgomeryavg 39.1¢	$9	$8.05	-$0.95	54% 10453-8773 (19226)
machinelearnedCTR<$100	Robin Montgomeryavg 39¢	$7.8	$7	-$0.8	55% 9930-8242 (18172)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Janice Tjenavg 60¢	$3	$3.1	+$0.1	52% 9018-8169 (17187)

monkeymashingkeyboardCTR

Robin Montgomery

Invested

$8,226.16

Value

$7.0K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

53%

667-585 (1252)

MadridTime

Janice Tjen

Invested

$2,970.99

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$33.54

Record

48%

1775-1911 (3686)

LightParadoxCTR

Robin Montgomery

Invested

$3,168.24

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$449.76

Record

49%

1800-1900 (3700)

0xheavy888

Janice Tjen

Invested

$2,369.88

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$130

Record

56%

8223-6528 (14751)

pltrkr111CTR

Robin Montgomery

Invested

$1,999.99

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$250

Record

55%

790-658 (1448)

VeryLucky888

Janice Tjen

Invested

$894.49

Value

$929.99

PnL

+$40.07

Record

58%

47503-34297 (81800)

thestingsnakeCTR

Robin Montgomery

Invested

$1,187.76

Value

$789.1

PnL

-$398.67

Record

60%

4530-3029 (7559)

ferrariChampions2026CTR

Robin Montgomery

Invested

$621.46

Value

$527.94

PnL

-$93.52

Record

42%

8168-11360 (19528)

EulhunterCTR

Robin Montgomery

Invested

$359.72

Value

$437.5

PnL

+$77.78

Record

54%

6325-5389 (11714)

ojg

Janice Tjen

Invested

$395.01

Value

$263.25

PnL

-$131.76

Record

43%

838-1096 (1934)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Robin Montgomery

Invested

$209.89

Value

$262.5

PnL

+$52.61

Record

51%

2058-1996 (4054)

1lovejumpARB<$100

Janice Tjen

Invested

$674.87

Value

$249.94

PnL

+$63.47

Record

53%

827-732 (1559)

Both legs:

Janice Tjen$169.163.3¢+$54.13

Robin Montgomery$75.0731.1¢+$9.34

Venusian

Janice Tjen

Invested

$195.91

Value

$190.91

PnL

-$5

Record

49%

1843-1935 (3778)

tradecraft<$100

Janice Tjen

Invested

$97.92

Value

$99.2

PnL

+$1.28

Record

51%

6512-6277 (12789)

MrBently

Janice Tjen

Invested

$102.02

Value

$98.58

PnL

-$3.44

Record

52%

614-558 (1172)

sentrioCTR<$100

Robin Montgomery

Invested

$90.25

Value

$78.97

PnL

-$11.28

Record

50%

26409-26025 (52434)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0ARB<$100

Janice Tjen

Invested

$62.25

Value

$63.45

PnL

+$1.2

Record

64%

5376-2995 (8371)

Both legs:

Janice Tjen$39.365.5¢-$2.1

Robin Montgomery$22.9530.6¢+$3.3

nigiri99CTR<$100

Robin Montgomery

Invested

$73.86

Value

$62.65

PnL

-$11.21

Record

46%

8770-10463 (19233)

BillBenter2026<$100

Janice Tjen

Invested

$17.51

Value

$15.5

PnL

-$2.01

Record

57%

19424-14373 (33797)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Robin Montgomery

Invested

Value

$8.05

PnL

-$0.95

Record

54%

10453-8773 (19226)

machinelearnedCTR<$100

Robin Montgomery

Invested

$7.8

Value

PnL

-$0.8

Record

55%

9930-8242 (18172)

ameisgoat11<$100

Janice Tjen

Invested

Value

$3.1

PnL

+$0.1

Record

52%

9018-8169 (17187)

Research grade

NeutralRobin Montgomery at 35%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Robin Montgomery

11 of 20 top traders (55%)Underdog side (market favors Janice Tjen 65%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Robin Montgomery wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance37.2%

35.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$169.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

269.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.