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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465fantasy7788fekefeeRN1
Record (consensus markets)50% (71–72, n=143)56% (5–4, n=9)30% (3–7, n=10)66% (497–255, n=752)
Consensus PnL-$252K$421K-$8.2K-$131K
Tracked asPM monthly #13PM monthly #42was PM monthly #898PM monthly #48 + pinned
Sides with the consensus44% (15 of 34 open)no open consensus position100% (1 of 1 open)59% (94 of 158 open)
Strongest topics
  • NBA +42 pts n=29, ROI +39%
  • Tennis +35 pts n=17, ROI +37%
none with 10+ settlednone with 10+ settled
Weakest topic————
Settled positions, side won97% of 72 at avg 60¢, ROI +36%100% of 5 at avg 50¢, ROI +54%100% of 3 at avg 49¢, ROI +52%100% of 206 at avg 68¢, ROI +33%
Entries under 30¢3% (won 50% of 2)20% (won 100% of 1)0%6% (won 100% of 12)
Entries 30–50¢26% (won 95% of 19)20% (won 100% of 1)67% (won 100% of 2)13% (won 100% of 26)
Entries 50–70¢46% (won 100% of 33)60% (won 100% of 3)33% (won 100% of 1)30% (won 100% of 62)
Entries 70¢ and up25% (won 100% of 18)0%0%51% (won 100% of 106)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

11 on the same side, 5 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

Market0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465fantasy7788fekefeeRN1
Buffalo vs. Ball State: O/U 49.5
opposite sides · consensus Under
Under $12K——Over $2.7K
Spurs vs. Bulls: O/U 236.5
opposite sides · consensus Under
Over $351—Under $1.8K—
UMass vs. Toledo
opposite sides · consensus Toledo
Toledo $1.7K——UMass $138
Spread: Toledo (-14.5)
opposite sides · consensus UMass
Toledo $520——UMass $1.3K
Lakers vs. Bucks: O/U 228.5
opposite sides · consensus Over
Under $2——Over $18
Buffalo vs. Ball State
same side · consensus Ball State
Buffalo $125K——Buffalo $10K
Spread: Celtics (-4.5)
same side · consensus Raptors
Raptors $15K——Raptors $450
Spread: Celtics (-6.5)
same side · consensus Raptors
Raptors $9.9K——Raptors $627
Spread: Lakers (-13.5)
same side · consensus Lakers
Bucks $2.5K——Bucks $136
Spread: Central Michigan (-17.5)
same side · consensus Central Michigan
Sacramento State $6——Sacramento State $1.6K
Wizards vs. Pacers: O/U 228.5
same side · consensus Over
Under $789——Under $400
Spread: Knicks (-7.5)
same side · consensus Cavaliers
Cavaliers $23——Cavaliers $352
Wizards vs. Pacers: O/U 236.5
same side · consensus Under
Under $178——Under $188
Spread: Knicks (-6.5)
same side · consensus Cavaliers
Knicks $63——Knicks $265
Spread: Lakers (-14.5)
same side · consensus Bucks
Bucks $150——Bucks $25
Campbell Fighting Camels vs. East Tennessee State Buccaneers
same side · consensus East Tennessee State Buccaneers
East Tennessee State Buccaneers $96——East Tennessee State Buccaneers $16