Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold UMass, while the market favors Toledo (69%). 10 of 18 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Toledo (-14.5)

10 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold UMass (56%) · UMass at 31¢ · $66K held · ended Nov 12

Toledo69¢UMass31¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

UMass

Consensus Traders

UMass 56%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$65.6K

Combined PnL

$6.6K

Smart Money Entry

50.1¢ → 31¢

-38% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralUMass at 31%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

UMass

10 of 18 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Toledo 69%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Toledo69%

UMass31%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Toledo8 traders

Total Value$29.2K

Total Shares48,470

Combined PnL+$5.2K

UMass10 traders

Total Value$27.8K

Total Shares52,713

Combined PnL+$1.4K

Toledo — 44%UMass — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-27 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Mature

21h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

53% of non-arb traders are on UMass. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on UMass) and the top 1000 (13 on Toledo) disagree here.

sniperToledo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUMass 56% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedUMass 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Toledo 54% · 13

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PU purplegatto	Toledoavg 48.3¢	$10.9K	$15.5K	+$4.6K	69% 2587-1182 (3769)
MO monkeymashingkeyboardCTR	UMassavg 52¢	$10.4K	$10.8K	+$400	54% 521-441 (962)
PW Pwaddler	Toledoavg 48¢	$7.1K	$7.4K	+$297.74	49% 261-275 (536)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	UMassavg 51¢	$7.1K	$7.4K	+$257.29	57% 3229-2433 (5662)
└ UMass leg	UMassavg 51¢	$5.5K	$5.8K	+$324.46
└ Toledo leg	Toledoavg 48¢	$1.6K	$1.5K	-$67.17
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR	UMassavg 50¢	$6.7K	$7.2K	+$533.6	59% 441-301 (742)
0xheavy888CTR	UMassavg 51¢	$3.3K	$3.5K	+$195	55% 205-165 (370)
PR primm	Toledoavg 62.3¢	$2.9K	$3.2K	+$294.33	61% 870-566 (1436)
HI hi774cCTR	UMassavg 51¢	$2.4K	$2.5K	+$141.64	14% 77-472 (549)
VeryLucky888CTR	UMassavg 50.5¢	$2.5K	$2.2K	+$150	52% 497-452 (949)
RN1CTR	UMassavg 37.7¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$24.36	57% 4059-3077 (7136)
DA darkumbreon88	Toledoavg 47¢	$1.0K	$981.75	-$21.34	61% 929-595 (1524)
MA MadridTime	Toledoavg 48¢	$558.37	$581.64	+$23.27	31% 410-897 (1307)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	Toledoavg 49¢	$490	$520	+$30	51% 3724-3550 (7274)
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Toledoavg 47.8¢	$539.92	$519.34	-$20.58	48% 536-588 (1124)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Toledoavg 49¢	$444.67	$510.07	+$65.39	55% 719-584 (1303)
└ Toledo leg	Toledoavg 49¢	$245	$307.5	+$62.5
└ UMass leg	UMassavg 38¢	$199.68	$202.57	+$2.89
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	UMassavg 43.2¢	$781.85	$435.78	-$65.35	48% 1427-1570 (2997)
└ UMass leg	UMassavg 43.2¢	$439.83	$341.27	-$98.87
└ Toledo leg	Toledoavg 47¢	$66.79	$94.51	+$33.52
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Toledoavg 48¢	$384	$368	-$16	15% 150-841 (991)
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	UMassavg 51¢	$284.83	$289.96	+$5.13	47% 299-342 (641)
└ UMass leg	UMassavg 51¢	$169.15	$179.1	+$9.95
└ Toledo leg	Toledoavg 48¢	$115.68	$110.86	-$4.82
65 6512395314597884CTR	UMassavg 37.5¢	$170.04	$169.88	-$0.16	50% 3301-3257 (6558)
PA Pan9XCTR	UMassavg 40.1¢	$132.26	$93.8	+$2.23	49% 692-733 (1425)
TimeTravelerCTR	UMassavg 53¢	$106	$52	-$54	18% 15-67 (82)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	UMassavg 51.5¢	$26.73	$20.68	+$0.4	55% 680-552 (1232)

purplegatto

Toledo

Invested

$10,922.8

Value

$15.5K

PnL

+$4.6K

Record

69%

2587-1182 (3769)

monkeymashingkeyboardCTR

UMass

Invested

$10,400

Value

$10.8K

PnL

+$400

Record

54%

521-441 (962)

Pwaddler

Toledo

Invested

$7,145.79

Value

$7.4K

PnL

+$297.74

Record

49%

261-275 (536)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

UMass

Invested

$7,119.33

Value

$7.4K

PnL

+$257.29

Record

57%

3229-2433 (5662)

Both legs:

UMass$5,507.3151¢+$324.46

Toledo$1,612.0248¢-$67.17

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR

UMass

Invested

$6,670.04

Value

$7.2K

PnL

+$533.6

Record

59%

441-301 (742)

0xheavy888CTR

UMass

Invested

$3,315

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$195

Record

55%

205-165 (370)

primm

Toledo

Invested

$2,949.94

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$294.33

Record

61%

870-566 (1436)

hi774cCTR

UMass

Invested

$2,407.8

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$141.64

Record

14%

77-472 (549)

VeryLucky888CTR

UMass

Invested

$2,490

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$150

Record

52%

497-452 (949)

RN1CTR

UMass

Invested

$1,226.12

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$24.36

Record

57%

4059-3077 (7136)

darkumbreon88

Toledo

Invested

$1,003.1

Value

$981.75

PnL

-$21.34

Record

61%

929-595 (1524)

MadridTime

Toledo

Invested

$558.37

Value

$581.64

PnL

+$23.27

Record

31%

410-897 (1307)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465

Toledo

Invested

$490

Value

$520

PnL

+$30

Record

51%

3724-3550 (7274)

Multicoloured-Serf

Toledo

Invested

$539.92

Value

$519.34

PnL

-$20.58

Record

48%

536-588 (1124)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Toledo

Invested

$444.67

Value

$510.07

PnL

+$65.39

Record

55%

719-584 (1303)

Both legs:

Toledo$24549¢+$62.5

UMass$199.6838¢+$2.89

38791873984189ARB<$100

UMass

Invested

$781.85

Value

$435.78

PnL

-$65.35

Record

48%

1427-1570 (2997)

Both legs:

UMass$439.8343.2¢-$98.87

Toledo$66.7947¢+$33.52

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Toledo

Invested

$384

Value

$368

PnL

-$16

Record

15%

150-841 (991)

SnakeBallARB<$100

UMass

Invested

$284.83

Value

$289.96

PnL

+$5.13

Record

47%

299-342 (641)

Both legs:

UMass$169.1551¢+$9.95

Toledo$115.6848¢-$4.82

6512395314597884CTR

UMass

Invested

$170.04

Value

$169.88

PnL

-$0.16

Record

50%

3301-3257 (6558)

Pan9XCTR

UMass

Invested

$132.26

Value

$93.8

PnL

+$2.23

Record

49%

692-733 (1425)

TimeTravelerCTR

UMass

Invested

$106

Value

$52

PnL

-$54

Record

18%

15-67 (82)

ghorrockCTR<$100

UMass

Invested

$26.73

Value

$20.68

PnL

+$0.4

Record

55%

680-552 (1232)

Research grade

NeutralUMass at 31%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

UMass

10 of 18 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Toledo 69%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-27 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Mature

21h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

53% of non-arb traders are on UMass. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on UMass) and the top 1000 (13 on Toledo) disagree here.

sniperToledo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUMass 56% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedUMass 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Toledo 54% · 13

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that UMass wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance33.1%

31.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$202.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

302.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.