Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (71%). 8 of 22 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Wizards vs. Pacers: O/U 228.5

8 of 22 top Polymarket traders hold Over (36%) · Over at 29¢ · $143K held · ended Nov 12

Over29¢Under71¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 36%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$143.5K

Combined PnL

-$492.83

Smart Money Entry

49.8¢ → 29¢

-42% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 29%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

8 of 22 top traders (36%)Underdog side (market favors Under 71%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over29%

Under71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over8 traders

Total Value$72.5K

Total Shares146,494

Combined PnL-$530.61

Under14 traders

Total Value$69.1K

Total Shares137,608

Combined PnL+$37.78

Over — 36%Under — 64%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-22 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

41% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Aligned

sniperOver 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrUnder 58% · 12

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 56% · 16

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO googleplayCTR	Overavg 50¢	$68.0K	$67.4K	-$680.31	50% 62-63 (125)
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 50.1¢	$31.5K	$31.1K	-$402.81	57% 3226-2432 (5658)
TM TMingchan	Underavg 50¢	$20.0K	$20.2K	+$200	23% 11-36 (47)
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Underavg 50¢	$9.0K	$9.1K	+$90.12	48% 536-588 (1124)
HI hi774c	Underavg 50¢	$4.4K	$4.4K	+$0	14% 77-472 (549)
HG hgawxCTR	Overavg 47.7¢	$4.2K	$4.3K	+$110.79	6% 3-44 (47)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 49.9¢	$2.0K	$1.8K	+$7.46	52% 490-447 (937)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Underavg 49.7¢	$681.12	$688	+$6.88	59% 3478-2368 (5846)
└ Under leg	Underavg 49.7¢	$512.56	$516	+$3.44
└ Over leg	Overavg 49¢	$168.56	$172	+$3.44
GC GC-PARB<$100	Underavg 50¢	$617.23	$622.8	+$5.58	21% 99-382 (481)
└ Under leg	Underavg 50¢	$344	$344	+$0
└ Over leg	Overavg 49¢	$273.23	$278.8	+$5.58
AN Anon455	Underavg 49.1¢	$505.62	$616.95	+$111.33	45% 182-223 (405)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Underavg 51.3¢	$936.96	$614.73	+$18.89	48% 1420-1557 (2977)
└ Under leg	Underavg 51.3¢	$308.07	$387.18	+$79.72
└ Over leg	Overavg 46.9¢	$300.62	$227.55	-$60.83
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	Underavg 51¢	$582.93	$554.36	-$28.57	51% 3720-3550 (7270)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Overavg 48.3¢	$386.5	$400	+$13.5	15% 148-841 (989)
SE sentrio	Underavg 52¢	$376.96	$362.46	-$14.5	39% 382-610 (992)
RN1	Underavg 53.4¢	$208.22	$262.12	+$53.89	57% 4056-3070 (7126)
0xheavy888	Underavg 51¢	$255	$250	-$5	55% 205-165 (370)
0X 0xd4aa6f8e91cfea29b66a48ebff52814	Underavg 50¢	$220	$222.2	+$2.2	48% 184-199 (383)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Overavg 47¢	$172.49	$179.83	+$7.34	31% 406-905 (1311)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Overavg 47¢	$161.54	$177.12	+$15.58	51% 1908-1842 (3750)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375<$100	Underavg 49¢	$96.41	$97.39	+$0.98	53% 290-259 (549)
LI Limousin<$100	Underavg 49.9¢	$66.38	$89.06	+$22.68	30% 399-910 (1309)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 49¢	$93.08	$44.5	+$0.82	49% 684-724 (1408)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 50.3¢	$56.32	$44.13	-$0	55% 658-540 (1198)
MO mouzsynapseCTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$35.72	$37.24	+$1.52	43% 52-68 (120)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Overavg 47.5¢	$4.75	$4.9	+$0.15	33% 317-631 (948)

googleplayCTR

Over

Invested

$68,031.01

Value

$67.4K

PnL

-$680.31

Record

50%

62-63 (125)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$31,493.4

Value

$31.1K

PnL

-$402.81

Record

57%

3226-2432 (5658)

TMingchan

Under

Invested

$20,000

Value

$20.2K

PnL

+$200

Record

23%

11-36 (47)

Multicoloured-Serf

Under

Invested

$9,012

Value

$9.1K

PnL

+$90.12

Record

48%

536-588 (1124)

hi774c

Under

Invested

$4,413.57

Value

$4.4K

PnL

+$0

Record

14%

77-472 (549)

hgawxCTR

Over

Invested

$4,213.68

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$110.79

Record

3-44 (47)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$1,964.72

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$7.46

Record

52%

490-447 (937)

NM-PARB<$100

Under

Invested

$681.12

Value

$688

PnL

+$6.88

Record

59%

3478-2368 (5846)

Both legs:

Under$512.5649.7¢+$3.44

Over$168.5649¢+$3.44

GC-PARB<$100

Under

Invested

$617.23

Value

$622.8

PnL

+$5.58

Record

21%

99-382 (481)

Both legs:

Invested

$505.62

Value

$616.95

PnL

+$111.33

Record

45%

182-223 (405)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$936.96

Value

$614.73

PnL

+$18.89

Record

48%

1420-1557 (2977)

Both legs:

Under$308.0751.3¢+$79.72

Over$300.6246.9¢-$60.83

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465

Under

Invested

$582.93

Value

$554.36

PnL

-$28.57

Record

51%

3720-3550 (7270)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Over

Invested

$386.5

Value

$400

PnL

+$13.5

Record

15%

148-841 (989)

sentrio

Under

Invested

$376.96

Value

$362.46

PnL

-$14.5

Record

39%

382-610 (992)

RN1

Under

Invested

$208.22

Value

$262.12

PnL

+$53.89

Record

57%

4056-3070 (7126)

0xheavy888

Under

Invested

$255

Value

$250

PnL

-$5

Record

55%

205-165 (370)

0xd4aa6f8e91cfea29b66a48ebff52814

Under

Invested

$220

Value

$222.2

PnL

+$2.2

Record

48%

184-199 (383)

LightParadoxCTR

Over

Invested

$172.49

Value

$179.83

PnL

+$7.34

Record

31%

406-905 (1311)

FlaznorpCTR

Over

Invested

$161.54

Value

$177.12

PnL

+$15.58

Record

51%

1908-1842 (3750)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375<$100

Under

Invested

$96.41

Value

$97.39

PnL

+$0.98

Record

53%

290-259 (549)

Limousin<$100

Under

Invested

$66.38

Value

$89.06

PnL

+$22.68

Record

30%

399-910 (1309)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$93.08

Value

$44.5

PnL

+$0.82

Record

49%

684-724 (1408)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$56.32

Value

$44.13

PnL

-$0

Record

55%

658-540 (1198)

mouzsynapseCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$35.72

Value

$37.24

PnL

+$1.52

Record

43%

52-68 (120)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$4.75

Value

$4.9

PnL

+$0.15

Record

33%

317-631 (948)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 29%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

8 of 22 top traders (36%)Underdog side (market favors Under 71%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-22 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

41% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Aligned

sniperOver 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrUnder 58% · 12

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 56% · 16

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance31.1%

29.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$222.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

322.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.