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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69BreakTheBankndb1
Record (consensus markets)49% (1231–1278, n=2509)45% (547–663, n=1210)66% (875–459, n=1334)
Consensus PnL$13K$11.0M$4.1M
Tracked aswas PM monthly #813PM monthly #1PM monthly #24
Sides with the consensus38% (25 of 65 open)75% (83 of 110 open)70% (30 of 43 open)
Strongest topics
  • NFL +51 pts n=139, ROI +49%
  • NBA +49 pts n=93, ROI +48%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=281, ROI +37%
Weakest topicSoccer −1 pts, n=390—NFL −10 pts, n=132
Settled positions, side won47% of 1392 at avg 46¢, ROI +2%97% of 559 at avg 53¢, ROI +41%64% of 1267 at avg 64¢, ROI +4%
Entries under 30¢38% (won 10% of 523)10% (won 79% of 58)13% (won 16% of 160)
Entries 30–50¢18% (won 40% of 246)36% (won 98% of 200)20% (won 40% of 253)
Entries 50–70¢14% (won 64% of 199)35% (won 99% of 194)24% (won 57% of 310)
Entries 70¢ and up30% (won 88% of 424)19% (won 100% of 107)43% (won 93% of 544)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

5 on the same side, 7 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

Market0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69BreakTheBankndb1
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus No
—Yes $77KNo $1.5M
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
—No $187KYes $1.3M
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House
opposite sides · consensus No
—Yes $1.4KNo $1.4M
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House
opposite sides · consensus No
—No $265KYes $544K
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
—Yes $295KNo $73K
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus No
—No $43KYes $23K
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Michigan?
opposite sides · consensus No
—Yes $52KNo $831
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
same side · consensus Yes
—Yes $185KYes $2.9M
Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
same side · consensus Yes
—Yes $55KYes $12K
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
same side · consensus No
Yes $13Yes $33K—
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 51 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
same side · consensus No
—No $3.5KNo $7.0K
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
same side · consensus Yes
—No $125No $3.2K