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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FBreakTheBankCORGIIndb1
Record (consensus markets)56% (216–170, n=386)45% (542–652, n=1194)61% (395–248, n=643)65% (865–456, n=1321)
Consensus PnL$472K$11.1M$194K$4.1M
Tracked asPM monthly #50PM monthly #1PM monthly #68PM monthly #69
Sides with the consensus50% (5 of 10 open)74% (125 of 169 open)50% (1 of 2 open)67% (50 of 75 open)
Strongest topics
  • NFL +51 pts n=139, ROI +49%
  • NBA +49 pts n=93, ROI +48%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=281, ROI +37%
Weakest topic———NFL −10 pts, n=132
Settled positions, side won56% of 358 at avg 53¢, ROI +14%97% of 559 at avg 53¢, ROI +41%98% of 399 at avg 46¢, ROI +55%64% of 1258 at avg 64¢, ROI +4%
Entries under 30¢6% (won 30% of 23)10% (won 79% of 58)9% (won 92% of 36)13% (won 16% of 160)
Entries 30–50¢41% (won 46% of 147)36% (won 98% of 200)56% (won 99% of 223)20% (won 39% of 252)
Entries 50–70¢34% (won 59% of 122)35% (won 99% of 194)33% (won 100% of 133)24% (won 57% of 306)
Entries 70¢ and up18% (won 80% of 66)19% (won 100% of 107)2% (won 100% of 7)43% (won 93% of 540)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

8 on the same side, 9 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

Market0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FBreakTheBankCORGIIndb1
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
—No $187K—Yes $1.2M
Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?
opposite sides · consensus No
—No $959K—Yes $192K
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House
opposite sides · consensus Yes
—No $268K—Yes $544K
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus No
—Yes $77K—No $580K
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
—Yes $291K—No $379
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
—No $118K—Yes $86K
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
—Yes $86K—No $93K
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, and Texas, and lose Michigan and Ohio?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
—Yes $15K—No $345
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 51 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus No
—Yes $256—No $7.1K
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
same side · consensus Yes
—Yes $178K—Yes $2.8M
Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
same side · consensus No
—No $407K—No $335K
Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
same side · consensus Yes
—Yes $278K—Yes $11K
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs PARIVISION (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group B
same side · consensus PARIVISION
PARIVISION $51K—PARIVISION $22K—
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group B
same side · consensus Aurora Gaming
G2 $35K—G2 $18K—
Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
same side · consensus No
—Yes $51K—Yes $250
Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, and Maine, and lose Alaska, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
same side · consensus Yes
—Yes $21K—Yes $2
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, and Michigan, and lose Ohio and Texas?
same side · consensus Yes
—Yes $9.1K—Yes $2