Counter-Strike: Liquid vs PARIVISION (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group B

14 of 35 top Polymarket traders hold PARIVISION (40%) · PARIVISION at 57¢ · $244K held · ends Nov 3

Liquid43¢PARIVISION57¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

PARIVISION

Consensus Traders

PARIVISION 40%

Total Value

$244.2K

Combined PnL

$2.1K

Smart Money Entry

57.7¢ → 57.5¢

+0% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralPARIVISION at 57%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

PARIVISION

14 of 35 top traders (40%)21 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Liquid43%

PARIVISION57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

PARIVISION14 traders

Total Value$173.0K

Total Shares298,093

Combined PnL+$1.9K

Liquid21 traders

Total Value$71.2K

Total Shares166,908

Combined PnL+$241.42

PARIVISION — 40%Liquid — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

39% of non-arb traders are on PARIVISION. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleLiquid 100% · 3

Diverging

ctrLiquid 59% · 17

Diverging

Hand-pickedLiquid 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Liquid 61% · 23

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F	PARIVISIONavg 57.9¢	$64.6K	$65.3K	+$704.62	56% 207-160 (367)
JA jakepaulthegoat2008	PARIVISIONavg 58¢	$43.5K	$43.9K	+$375	50% 7355-7474 (14829)
QI qiu3CTR	Liquidavg 42.2¢	$35.8K	$36.0K	+$240.16	61% 43-28 (71)
CORGII	PARIVISIONavg 58¢	$22.6K	$22.2K	+$195.02	41% 398-578 (976)
GO Gooooooollllllllll	PARIVISIONavg 57¢	$17.1K	$17.2K	+$150	50% 1242-1241 (2483)
Anjun	PARIVISIONavg 58¢	$12.2K	$12.1K	-$105.55	55% 4978-4039 (9017)
KK KkunnCTR	Liquidavg 42¢	$8.5K	$8.6K	+$101.65	43% 242-321 (563)
WI Wiretransferxyz	PARIVISIONavg 54.4¢	$7.1K	$7.4K	+$528	53% 766-678 (1444)
DumplingBMFCTR	Liquidavg 43.7¢	$4.4K	$4.3K	-$116.48	68% 1840-853 (2693)
TR TrippleEXCTR	Liquidavg 42¢	$4.2K	$4.3K	-$50	58% 310-220 (530)
KateBollinger	PARIVISIONavg 57¢	$3.3K	$3.3K	+$28.51	68% 1761-822 (2583)
0X 0xbb299ce4867ea634a83a254e24d1ffc5c148947aCTR	Liquidavg 41¢	$2.9K	$3.0K	+$140	50% 367-367 (734)
TH TheVeteran77CTR	Liquidavg 44.6¢	$2.7K	$2.6K	-$97.52	48% 244-266 (510)
SatanishippieCTR	Liquidavg 43¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	-$87.2	48% 326-353 (679)
StudyPredictionCTR	Liquidavg 42¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	+$54	53% 4632-4042 (8674)
SU suntoriCTR	Liquidavg 42.6¢	$2.1K	$1.8K	-$14.95	45% 13087-15871 (28958)
HL HLEbritniCTR	Liquidavg 42¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$30	57% 13-10 (23)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR	Liquidavg 41¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$13.33	47% 2629-2932 (5561)
MA manoamano	PARIVISIONavg 55.7¢	$636.37	$651.45	+$20.8	51% 532-507 (1039)
SE sentrio	PARIVISIONavg 57¢	$504.19	$508.61	+$4.42	50% 25032-24757 (49789)
LU LucasCosta.CTR	Liquidavg 42¢	$478.8	$490.2	+$11.4	41% 334-484 (818)
VE VenusianCTR	Liquidavg 42¢	$446.88	$457.52	+$5.32	50% 359-356 (715)
Stone1337CTR	Liquidavg 42¢	$435.94	$446.32	+$10.38	55% 101-83 (184)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Liquidavg 42¢	$420	$430	+$10	53% 5759-5100 (10859)
polaroid14CTR	Liquidavg 42¢	$420	$415	-$5	48% 319-344 (663)

0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F

PARIVISION

Invested

$64,622.35

Value

$65.3K

PnL

+$704.62

Record

56%

207-160 (367)

jakepaulthegoat2008

PARIVISION

Invested

$43,499.95

Value

$43.9K

PnL

+$375

Record

50%

7355-7474 (14829)

qiu3CTR

Liquid

Invested

$35,764.67

Value

$36.0K

PnL

+$240.16

Record

61%

43-28 (71)

CORGII

PARIVISION

Invested

$22,554.93

Value

$22.2K

PnL

+$195.02

Record

41%

398-578 (976)

Gooooooollllllllll

PARIVISION

Invested

$17,099.85

Value

$17.2K

PnL

+$150

Record

50%

1242-1241 (2483)

Anjun

PARIVISION

Invested

$12,243.77

Value

$12.1K

PnL

-$105.55

Record

55%

4978-4039 (9017)

KkunnCTR

Liquid

Invested

$8,538.23

Value

$8.6K

PnL

+$101.65

Record

43%

242-321 (563)

Wiretransferxyz

PARIVISION

Invested

$7,052

Value

$7.4K

PnL

+$528

Record

53%

766-678 (1444)

DumplingBMFCTR

Liquid

Invested

$4,376.61

Value

$4.3K

PnL

-$116.48

Record

68%

1840-853 (2693)

TrippleEXCTR

Liquid

Invested

$4,200

Value

$4.3K

PnL

-$50

Record

58%

310-220 (530)

KateBollinger

PARIVISION

Invested

$3,250.45

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$28.51

Record

68%

1761-822 (2583)

0xbb299ce4867ea634a83a254e24d1ffc5c148947aCTR

Liquid

Invested

$2,869.97

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$140

Record

50%

367-367 (734)

TheVeteran77CTR

Liquid

Invested

$2,676.33

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$97.52

Record

48%

244-266 (510)

SatanishippieCTR

Liquid

Invested

$2,500

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$87.2

Record

48%

326-353 (679)

StudyPredictionCTR

Liquid

Invested

$2,268

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$54

Record

53%

4632-4042 (8674)

suntoriCTR

Liquid

Invested

$2,053.8

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$14.95

Record

45%

13087-15871 (28958)

HLEbritniCTR

Liquid

Invested

$1,259.99

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$30

Record

57%

13-10 (23)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR

Liquid

Invested

$1,093.15

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$13.33

Record

47%

2629-2932 (5561)

manoamano

PARIVISION

Invested

$636.37

Value

$651.45

PnL

+$20.8

Record

51%

532-507 (1039)

sentrio

PARIVISION

Invested

$504.19

Value

$508.61

PnL

+$4.42

Record

50%

25032-24757 (49789)

LucasCosta.CTR

Liquid

Invested

$478.8

Value

$490.2

PnL

+$11.4

Record

41%

334-484 (818)

VenusianCTR

Liquid

Invested

$446.88

Value

$457.52

PnL

+$5.32

Record

50%

359-356 (715)

Stone1337CTR

Liquid

Invested

$435.94

Value

$446.32

PnL

+$10.38

Record

55%

101-83 (184)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Liquid

Invested

$420

Value

$430

PnL

+$10

Record

53%

5759-5100 (10859)

polaroid14CTR

Liquid

Invested

$420

Value

$415

PnL

-$5

Record

48%

319-344 (663)

Research grade

NeutralPARIVISION at 57%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

PARIVISION

14 of 35 top traders (40%)21 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

39% of non-arb traders are on PARIVISION. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleLiquid 100% · 3

Diverging

ctrLiquid 59% · 17

Diverging

Hand-pickedLiquid 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Liquid 61% · 23

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that PARIVISION wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.7%

57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$67.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

167.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.