Skip to content

Database problems: some data is degraded. We're fixing it right now.

Details
PolyConsensus
← Traders

Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
BreakTheBanke46m3ferrariChampions2026S-Works
Record (consensus markets)41% (589–853, n=1442)55% (14853–12001, n=26854)43% (11439–14898, n=26337)75% (2546–856, n=3402)
Consensus PnL$7.6M$689K$3.1M$3.7M
Tracked asPM monthly #3PM monthly #1was PM monthly #87PM monthly #74
Sides with the consensus89% (32 of 36 open)67% (391 of 580 open)47% (9 of 19 open)67% (2 of 3 open)
Strongest topics
  • NFL +51 pts n=142, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=107, ROI +47%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=282, ROI +37%
  • Crypto +45 pts n=124, ROI +67%
  • Soccer +16 pts n=1174, ROI +26%
  • NBA +14 pts n=146, ROI +19%
not computed yet
  • Esports +5 pts n=492, ROI +4%
  • MLB +4 pts n=308, ROI −2%
  • NBA +3 pts n=383, ROI +1%
Weakest topic—NFL −6 pts, n=17—Crypto −1 pts, n=46
Settled positions, side won97% of 593 at avg 53¢, ROI +40%62% of 5804 at avg 54¢, ROI +30%—75% of 2256 at avg 72¢, ROI +2%
Entries under 30¢10% (won 82% of 60)38% (won 18% of 2197)—6% (won 14% of 145)
Entries 30–50¢36% (won 98% of 212)7% (won 53% of 397)—16% (won 48% of 367)
Entries 50–70¢35% (won 100% of 205)9% (won 71% of 531)—23% (won 60% of 509)
Entries 70¢ and up20% (won 100% of 116)46% (won 97% of 2679)—55% (won 96% of 1235)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

7 on the same side, 5 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarketBreakTheBanke46m3ferrariChampions2026S-Works
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
—Yes $10—No $1.2M
Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
opposite sides · consensus No
No $409KYes $10——
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals?
opposite sides · consensus No
No $12KYes $100——
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Brazilian Grand Prix?
opposite sides · consensus No
No $6.2KYes $7——
Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals?
opposite sides · consensus No
No $2.4KYes $275——
Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $292KYes $103——
Will Liverpool win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
same side · consensus No
Yes $22KYes $8——
Will Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2027 NBA Finals?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $15KYes $297——
Will Chelsea win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $13KYes $6——
Will Brighton win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $12KYes $11——
Will San Antonio Spurs win the 2027 NBA Finals?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $4.2KYes $500——
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 South Carolina Senate election?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $49Yes $40——