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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| BreakTheBank | lava-lava | RN1 | TeGeeLP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 97% (441–15, n=456) | 53% (149–134, n=283) | 48% (92–101, n=193) | 50% (46–46, n=92) |
| Consensus PnL | $8.4M | $1.1M | -$77K | $382K |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #1 | PM monthly #108 | PM monthly #35 + pinned | PM monthly #438 |
| Sides with the consensus | 74% (35 of 47 open) | 63% (39 of 62 open) | 65% (112 of 171 open) | no open consensus position |
| Strongest topics |
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| Weakest topic | — | Finance −17 pts, n=11 | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 95% of 332 at avg 52¢, ROI +39% | 49% of 276 at avg 45¢, ROI +2% | 100% of 240 at avg 63¢, ROI +36% | 51% of 90 at avg 47¢, ROI +15% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 11% (won 69% of 36) | 34% (won 9% of 93) | 1% (won 100% of 3) | 16% (won 36% of 14) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 35% (won 97% of 116) | 23% (won 48% of 64) | 26% (won 100% of 62) | 44% (won 43% of 40) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 37% (won 99% of 124) | 20% (won 67% of 54) | 40% (won 100% of 95) | 32% (won 62% of 29) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 17% (won 100% of 56) | 24% (won 92% of 65) | 33% (won 100% of 80) | 8% (won 86% of 7) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
6 on the same side, 5 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | BreakTheBank | lava-lava | RN1 | TeGeeLP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread: Spurs (-9.5) opposite sides · consensus Suns | Suns $343K | — | Spurs $1.2K | — |
| Spread: Warriors (-11.5) opposite sides · consensus Pelicans | Warriors $85K | — | Pelicans $129 | — |
| Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats? opposite sides · consensus Yes | No $28K | Yes $9.9K | — | — |
| Bills vs. Vikings: O/U 46.5 opposite sides · consensus Over | Over $13K | — | Under $3.5K | — |
| Spread: Spurs (-7.5) opposite sides · consensus Spurs | Suns $654 | — | Spurs $520 | — |
| Grizzlies vs. Raptors same side · consensus Grizzlies | Grizzlies $397K | — | Grizzlies $16K | — |
| Spread: Bills (-2.5) same side · consensus Bills | Bills $227K | — | Bills $3.1K | — |
| Spread: Bills (-7.5) same side · consensus Vikings | Bills $38K | — | Bills $792 | — |
| Spread: Bills (-1.5) same side · consensus Bills | Bills $15K | — | Bills $3.1K | — |
| Spread: Rockets (-5.5) same side · consensus Rockets | Rockets $2 | — | Rockets $1.9K | — |
| Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 South Carolina Senate election? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $49 | Yes $351 | — | — |