Grizzlies vs. Raptors

14 of 34 top Polymarket traders hold Grizzlies (41%) · Grizzlies at 55¢ · $269K held · ends Nov 10

Grizzlies55¢Raptors45¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Grizzlies

Consensus Traders

Grizzlies 41%

8 arb excluded

Total Value

$268.7K

Combined PnL

$12.9K

Smart Money Entry

47.5¢ → 54.5¢

+15% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

AvoidGrizzlies at 55%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Grizzlies

14 of 34 top traders (41%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed20 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Grizzlies55%

Raptors46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Grizzlies14 traders

Total Value$169.7K

Total Shares326,422

Combined PnL+$14.6K

Raptors20 traders

Total Value$79.4K

Total Shares148,600

Combined PnL$-1.7K

Grizzlies — 41%Raptors — 59%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+13 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Mature

30h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

46% of non-arb traders are on Grizzlies. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperGrizzlies 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrRaptors 60% · 20

Diverging

Top 1000Raptors 54% · 24

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99	Grizzliesavg 44.7¢	$52.7K	$64.2K	+$11.5K	43% 28-37 (65)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	Grizzliesavg 50¢	$64.0K	$63.4K	-$640.24	6% 25-409 (434)
EdZacharyCTR	Raptorsavg 55¢	$55.0K	$53.5K	$-1.5K	0% 0-68 (68)
drainedandpoor	Grizzliesavg 53¢	$17.2K	$17.3K	+$161.95	— 1-1 (2)
VE Venusian	Grizzliesavg 45¢	$9.2K	$11.1K	+$1.9K	23% 82-268 (350)
IM imjustkenisgheyCTR	Raptorsavg 52.4¢	$9.8K	$9.5K	-$171.24	— 1-1 (2)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Raptorsavg 50.2¢	$6.8K	$6.7K	-$93.94	48% 82-90 (172)
└ Grizzlies leg	Grizzliesavg 51.1¢	$3.3K	$3.6K	+$225.49
└ Raptors leg	Raptorsavg 50.2¢	$3.4K	$3.1K	-$319.43
RJ RJW1	Grizzliesavg 43¢	$5.9K	$6.1K	+$204.68	0% 0-78 (78)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Raptorsavg 50.3¢	$5.4K	$5.5K	+$183.67	30% 29-67 (96)
└ Raptors leg	Raptorsavg 50.3¢	$3.5K	$3.1K	-$329.36
└ Grizzlies leg	Grizzliesavg 42.9¢	$1.9K	$2.4K	+$513.03
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Raptorsavg 48.1¢	$6.6K	$4.5K	+$250.5	4% 5-123 (128)
VI vibing123	Grizzliesavg 43.1¢	$2.9K	$3.7K	+$767.29	2% 5-300 (305)
VeryLucky888CTR	Raptorsavg 54.1¢	$5.9K	$3.2K	-$60.83	49% 60-63 (123)
LI Limousin	Grizzliesavg 44.3¢	$2.6K	$3.2K	+$590.83	24% 90-282 (372)
MA MadridTimeARB<$100	Raptorsavg 50¢	$3.6K	$2.3K	+$238.36	25% 86-262 (348)
└ Raptors leg	Raptorsavg 50¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$138.57
└ Grizzlies leg	Grizzliesavg 43.4¢	$681.74	$855.85	+$376.93
FL FlaznorpCTR	Raptorsavg 49.3¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$66.57	52% 242-224 (466)
GC GC-PARB<$100	Raptorsavg 51.4¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$89.72	5% 11-190 (201)
└ Raptors leg	Raptorsavg 51.4¢	$1.3K	$1.1K	-$147.5
└ Grizzlies leg	Grizzliesavg 50.7¢	$761.18	$818.96	+$57.78
PL plustiCTR	Raptorsavg 57¢	$2.0K	$1.9K	-$52.63	14% 3-18 (21)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Raptorsavg 50.2¢	$2.0K	$1.9K	-$68.71	6% 11-164 (175)
└ Raptors leg	Raptorsavg 50.2¢	$1.3K	$1.1K	-$117.5
└ Grizzlies leg	Grizzliesavg 51.1¢	$723.48	$772.27	+$48.79
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Raptorsavg 56¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$7.77	32% 68-143 (211)
HI hi774cCTR	Raptorsavg 56¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$9.15	3% 9-249 (258)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Raptorsavg 54.3¢	$942.77	$906.8	-$35.96	49% 383-404 (787)
└ Grizzlies leg	Grizzliesavg 50¢	$465.34	$497.79	+$32.45
└ Raptors leg	Raptorsavg 54.3¢	$477.42	$409.01	-$68.41
DA darkumbreon88CTR	Raptorsavg 57.7¢	$847.56	$815.69	-$31.87	2% 7-311 (318)
tradecraft	Grizzliesavg 45.2¢	$367.96	$443.3	+$75.34	19% 42-180 (222)
0xheavy888CTR	Raptorsavg 53.3¢	$400	$401.25	+$1.25	69% 29-13 (42)
RI RichiddCTR	Raptorsavg 60¢	$300	$277.5	-$22.5	3% 1-39 (40)

nigiri99

Grizzlies

Invested

$52,693.74

Value

$64.2K

PnL

+$11.5K

Record

43%

28-37 (65)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465

Grizzlies

Invested

$64,024.06

Value

$63.4K

PnL

-$640.24

Record

25-409 (434)

EdZacharyCTR

Raptors

Invested

$54,999.96

Value

$53.5K

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

0-68 (68)

drainedandpoor

Grizzlies

Invested

$17,166.28

Value

$17.3K

PnL

+$161.95

Record

—

1-1 (2)

Venusian

Grizzlies

Invested

$9,183.92

Value

$11.1K

PnL

+$1.9K

Record

23%

82-268 (350)

imjustkenisgheyCTR

Raptors

Invested

$9,756.26

Value

$9.5K

PnL

-$171.24

Record

—

1-1 (2)

Anon455ARB<$100

Raptors

Invested

$6,760.8

Value

$6.7K

PnL

-$93.94

Record

48%

82-90 (172)

Both legs:

Grizzlies$3,347.6551.1¢+$225.49

Raptors$3,413.1550.2¢-$319.43

RJW1

Grizzlies

Invested

$5,867.47

Value

$6.1K

PnL

+$204.68

Record

0-78 (78)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Raptors

Invested

$5,358

Value

$5.5K

PnL

+$183.67

Record

30%

29-67 (96)

Both legs:

Raptors$3,455.1550.3¢-$329.36

Grizzlies$1,902.8642.9¢+$513.03

SunlineTickerCTR

Raptors

Invested

$6,591.32

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$250.5

Record

5-123 (128)

vibing123

Grizzlies

Invested

$2,912.62

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$767.29

Record

5-300 (305)

VeryLucky888CTR

Raptors

Invested

$5,932.06

Value

$3.2K

PnL

-$60.83

Record

49%

60-63 (123)

Limousin

Grizzlies

Invested

$2,580.63

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$590.83

Record

24%

90-282 (372)

MadridTimeARB<$100

Raptors

Invested

$3,558.16

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$238.36

Record

25%

86-262 (348)

Both legs:

Raptors$1,539.6250¢-$138.57

Grizzlies$681.7443.4¢+$376.93

FlaznorpCTR

Raptors

Invested

$2,036.96

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$66.57

Record

52%

242-224 (466)

GC-PARB<$100

Raptors

Invested

$2,046.18

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$89.72

Record

11-190 (201)

Both legs:

Raptors$1,28551.4¢-$147.5

Grizzlies$761.1850.7¢+$57.78

plustiCTR

Raptors

Invested

$2,000

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$52.63

Record

14%

3-18 (21)

NM-PARB<$100

Raptors

Invested

$1,978.47

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$68.71

Record

11-164 (175)

Both legs:

Raptors$1,254.9950.2¢-$117.5

Grizzlies$723.4851.1¢+$48.79

omnibus-076daaCTR

Raptors

Invested

$1,421.79

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$7.77

Record

32%

68-143 (211)

hi774cCTR

Raptors

Invested

$1,006.1

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$9.15

Record

9-249 (258)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Raptors

Invested

$942.77

Value

$906.8

PnL

-$35.96

Record

49%

383-404 (787)

Both legs:

Grizzlies$465.3450¢+$32.45

Raptors$477.4254.3¢-$68.41

darkumbreon88CTR

Raptors

Invested

$847.56

Value

$815.69

PnL

-$31.87

Record

7-311 (318)

tradecraft

Grizzlies

Invested

$367.96

Value

$443.3

PnL

+$75.34

Record

19%

42-180 (222)

0xheavy888CTR

Raptors

Invested

$400

Value

$401.25

PnL

+$1.25

Record

69%

29-13 (42)

RichiddCTR

Raptors

Invested

$300

Value

$277.5

PnL

-$22.5

Record

1-39 (40)

Research grade

AvoidGrizzlies at 55%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Grizzlies

14 of 34 top traders (41%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed20 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+13 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Mature

30h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

46% of non-arb traders are on Grizzlies. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperGrizzlies 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrRaptors 60% · 20

Diverging

Top 1000Raptors 54% · 24

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Grizzlies wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.