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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| Forecastication2 | RN1 | BreakTheBank | beachboy4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 49% (6666–6894, n=13560) | 48% (12823–13908, n=26731) | 45% (526–640, n=1166) | 68% (43–20, n=63) |
| Consensus PnL | -$350K | $13.4M | $10.6M | $5.8M |
| Tracked as | was PM monthly #893 | PM monthly #24 + pinned | PM monthly #1 | was PM monthly #24 |
| Sides with the consensus | 35% (17 of 48 open) | 56% (84 of 149 open) | 72% (78 of 108 open) | 100% (1 of 1 open) |
| Strongest topics |
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| ||
| Weakest topic | — | — | — | NBA −6 pts, n=92 |
| Settled positions, side won | 96% of 4861 at avg 58¢, ROI +27% | 94% of 24664 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 57% of 212 at avg 54¢, ROI +3% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 8% (won 82% of 390) | 10% (won 56% of 2534) | 10% (won 85% of 53) | 3% (won 17% of 6) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 27% (won 96% of 1321) | 22% (won 94% of 5497) | 36% (won 98% of 192) | 29% (won 56% of 62) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 38% (won 97% of 1828) | 36% (won 99% of 8897) | 35% (won 99% of 187) | 54% (won 51% of 115) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 27% (won 98% of 1322) | 31% (won 100% of 7736) | 20% (won 100% of 107) | 14% (won 86% of 29) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
9 on the same side, 12 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | Forecastication2 | RN1 | BreakTheBank | beachboy4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread: Steelers (-3.5) opposite sides · consensus Browns | Steelers $734 | Steelers $1.9K | Browns $297K | — |
| Spread: Jets (-1.5) opposite sides · consensus Raiders | Jets $3.5K | Raiders $4.3K | Raiders $104K | — |
| Spread: Jets (-2.5) opposite sides · consensus Raiders | Jets $71 | Raiders $2.7K | Raiders $24K | — |
| Raiders vs. Jets opposite sides · consensus Raiders | — | Jets $11K | Raiders $171K | — |
| Cardinals vs. Cowboys opposite sides · consensus Cowboys | — | Cowboys $12K | Cardinals $59K | — |
| Spread: Cowboys (-7.5) opposite sides · consensus Cardinals | Cowboys $1.3K | — | Cardinals $35K | — |
| Spread: Raiders (-1.5) opposite sides · consensus Jets | — | Jets $43 | Raiders $17K | — |
| Spread: Cowboys (-17.5) opposite sides · consensus Cardinals | Cowboys $3.8K | Cardinals $1.4K | — | — |
| Spread: Cowboys (-6.5) opposite sides · consensus Cowboys | — | Cowboys $1.4K | Cardinals $3.0K | — |
| Olympique de Marseille vs. Toulouse FC: O/U 3.5 opposite sides · consensus Under | Under $59 | Over $2.5K | — | — |
| Spread: Cowboys (-16.5) opposite sides · consensus Cardinals | Cowboys $8 | Cardinals $2.2K | — | — |
| Spread: Bills (-20.5) opposite sides · consensus Ravens | Bills $2 | Ravens $93 | — | — |
| Ravens vs. Bills same side · consensus Bills | — | Bills $28K | Bills $378K | — |
| Spread: Bills (-3.5) same side · consensus Ravens | — | Bills $18K | Bills $51K | — |
| Spread: Celtics (-6.5) same side · consensus Magic | — | Magic $228 | Magic $51K | — |
| Spread: Celtics (-8.5) same side · consensus Magic | — | Magic $161 | Magic $13K | — |
| Browns vs. Steelers: O/U 42.5 same side · consensus Under | Under $10 | Under $7.9K | — | — |
| Spread: Bills (-17.5) same side · consensus Ravens | Bills $9 | Bills $2.5K | — | — |
| Juventus FC vs. SSC Napoli: Both Teams to Score same side · consensus No | Yes $102 | Yes $934 | — | — |
| Spread: Titans (-2.5) same side · consensus Titans | Titans $3 | Titans $766 | — | — |
| Celtics vs. Magic: O/U 218.5 same side · consensus Over | Under $2 | Under $213 | — | — |