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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| George.Smiley | BreakTheBank | RN1 | 00gringo00 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 75% (144–49, n=193) | 45% (526–640, n=1166) | 48% (12823–13908, n=26731) | 75% (6–2, n=8) |
| Consensus PnL | $57K | $10.6M | $13.4M | $3.5M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #508 | PM monthly #1 | PM monthly #24 + pinned | was PM monthly #19 |
| Sides with the consensus | 88% (7 of 8 open) | 72% (74 of 103 open) | 65% (98 of 151 open) | no open consensus position |
| Strongest topics |
|
| none with 10+ settled | |
| Weakest topic | — | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 89% of 158 at avg 73¢, ROI +14% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 94% of 24664 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% | 86% of 7 at avg 59¢, ROI +25% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 13% (won 45% of 20) | 10% (won 85% of 53) | 10% (won 56% of 2534) | 0% |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 9% (won 64% of 14) | 36% (won 98% of 192) | 22% (won 94% of 5497) | 0% |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 9% (won 93% of 15) | 35% (won 99% of 187) | 36% (won 99% of 8897) | 100% (won 86% of 7) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 69% (won 99% of 109) | 20% (won 100% of 107) | 31% (won 100% of 7736) | 0% |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
5 on the same side, 8 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | George.Smiley | BreakTheBank | RN1 | 00gringo00 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Browns vs. Steelers opposite sides · consensus Steelers | — | Browns $255K | Steelers $5.5K | — |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $9.4K | No $184K | — | — |
| Raiders vs. Jets opposite sides · consensus Raiders | — | Raiders $171K | Jets $192 | — |
| Cardinals vs. Cowboys opposite sides · consensus Cowboys | — | Cardinals $59K | Cowboys $11K | — |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $923 | No $35K | — | — |
| Spread: Raiders (-1.5) opposite sides · consensus Jets | — | Raiders $17K | Jets $400 | — |
| Spread: Buccaneers (-2.5) opposite sides · consensus Buccaneers | — | Falcons $8.6K | Buccaneers $1.9K | — |
| Spread: Cowboys (-6.5) opposite sides · consensus Cardinals | — | Cardinals $3.0K | Cowboys $1.4K | — |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $7.3K | Yes $272K | — | — |
| Spread: Jets (-1.5) same side · consensus Raiders | — | Raiders $104K | Raiders $2.3K | — |
| Spread: Cowboys (-7.5) same side · consensus Cardinals | — | Cardinals $35K | Cardinals $714 | — |
| Spread: Jets (-2.5) same side · consensus Raiders | — | Raiders $24K | Raiders $1.1K | — |
| Spread: Jaguars (-10.5) same side · consensus Jaguars | — | Jaguars $20K | Jaguars $643 | — |